This look will be into Lonzo Ball and his college stats and rookie projections.
Lonzo Ball has had arguably the worst past month of and of the top-5 prospects. Ball’s performance in the Sweet Sixteen was disappointing and the emergence of his father as a consistent headline grabber has at best produced mixed results for Lonzo.
Unofrtunately what has become lost in all this is Ball’s stellar play throughout the college basketball season that, at times, had many people considering him to be unarguably the best prospect in the draft. Ball wasn’t the most elite scorer of the group posting only 14 points per game but his per-100 possession stats are astounding. Ball averaged 22 points, 11 assists, and 9 rebounds, with nearly 3 steals as well. Ball’s FT percentage was lacking at just over 67% but he made three-pointers at an excellent 41% clip and shot nearly 75% from inside the arc.
| PER | DRE/min | USG% | Win score |
24.7 |
0.206
18.1%
6.8
Ball’s advanced stats provide a pretty complete picture of who he is as a player. His efficiency is excellent as his true shooting percentage was nearly 70 (67.3%) and his complete game contributed significantly to his team’s success as he had a 6.8 win score. It is important to note that Ball’s usage was only 18%, significantly lower than the other four top prospects. The next closest was Jayson Tatum at 26%.
Ball’s weaknesses are also displayed in the advanced numbers. Ball got to the FT line at the lowest rate of all the prospects, struggled with TO rate (18%!), and had the lowest DRE/min at 0.206. Ball did not show an adept ability to draw fouls in college and his beautiful passes more often than not hit their mark, but were inherently risky.
Comparison and Rookie Year Projection
The most widely used comparison that I have seen for Lonzo Ball is Jason Kidd. The comparison is about as close as you can get. Both are taller, do-it-all point guards. When comparing them statistically the comparison gets even better. Ball’s per-100 possession stats from college are eerily similar to Kidd’s per-100s from his rookie season in the NBA. The main differences are seen in Ball’s increased three-pointer shooting rate and Ball’s ability to get blocks. Otherwise many of their stats are identical. Kidd averaged 11.7 points, 7.7 assists, and 5.4 rebounds his rookie season in the league and that is a good model to follow for Ball’s projection. Kidd only shot 3.3 threes per game and Ball will most definitely take more than that. Whether Ball can outperform Kidd will be based on Ball’s ability to shoot in the league, something that is a top concern for him given his unorthodox jumper.
Ball has clear pros that push him into the argument for the number one pick, but there are also significant concerns with him beyond the daddy issues and the unorthodox jumper. What isn’t seen in the statistics is what seems to be Ball’s lack of quickness, exposed by De’Aaron Fox, and his inability to take over a game with his scoring. Despite that, Ball would fit perfectly on the Suns. He would be able to play next to dominant scorers in Booker and Bledsoe and mainly facilitate. Bledsoe could too take defensive pressure of Ball and let Ball focus on playmaking and passing.