Phoenix Suns Draft Watch: Lauri Markkanen
By Andrew Clark
The draft watch continues this week with the star from the University of Arizona and the pride of Finland.
In our Mock Draft 1.0 we project Markkanen to the Minnesota Timberwolves with the 9th overall pick.
Player Comparison
The freshman power forward is compared by NBADraft.net to current snipers Ryan Anderson of the Houston Rockets and Nikola Mirotic of the Chicago Bulls. After a brief bout of insanity where hoops hypers were calling Markkanen the next Dirk, the Anderson comparison is a welcomed dose of appropriate expectation setting.
Standing at a full 7′ and weighing 230lbs, Lauri is taller and heavier than either Anderson or Mirotic who come in at 6’9″, 215lbs and 6’10” 210 lbs respectively. Size is Markkanen’s most Dirk-like quality as Dirk is also 7′ and weighs 245 lbs.
Markkanen was a ridiculously efficient shooter during his freshman year at Arizona. While averaging 16 points per game he shot 84% from the line, 55% from 2pt range, and a blistering 42% from deep. By comparison, while a freshman at Cal, Anderson also averaged 16 points a game, but did so shooting 80% from the line, 54% from two, and a respectable 38% from three. Neither brought much to the table in terms of overall offensive and defensive balance, failing to average a single block, steal, or assist per game. Anderson was slightly superior on the boards grabbing 8 a game compared to Lauri’s 7.
Why the Suns Would Want Him
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A Royal Pain
At the rate the NBA is going, Lauri should be a valuable stretch 4/5. He’s tall enough to guard against lumbering big men and will pull them out to the three-point line on defense which opens lanes for guys like Bledsoe, Booker, and Warren. As Chriss develops, he could create a nice high-low option where Markkanen catches the ball at the top of the key and feeds Chriss in the post before stepping back a few feet for an open three if his man leaves him to double Chriss.
If nothing else, it is really hard to block a shooter at the three-point who is 7 feet tall. We all saw how hard it was for teams to cover fellow Wildcat Channing Frye which opened up the lane for Bledsoe and Dragic. Markkanen could provide a similar dynamic for the Suns simply by standing out there and lighting teams up who can’t guard someone that tall.
Markkanen is obscenely efficient. He won’t take bad shots. In the team’s win over Oregon he took what the defense gave him, only putting up four shots though making all of them. The night before versus UCLA, he was left open and fired away scoring 29 points. The Suns have enough young players taking bad shots that having a disciplined youngster who only takes what’s given to him would be a welcomed dynamic.
Why the Suns Would Not Want Him
The Suns already have a 7’1″ 19-year old who shoots a lot of threes in Dragan Bender. It’s dubious thinking to believe they’d want one more. While a lineup with Markkanen, Bender, Chriss, Booker, and Bledsoe would be really fascinating to watch, it’s far from a safe bet as a winning group.
The biggest drawback to Lauri is that he doesn’t add much to the team outside of shooting and an occasional outburst of rebounding. His size won’t match up against elite bigs like Whiteside, Porzingis, Cousins, etc. His lack of speed won’t allow him to match up with the likes of Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, or Blake Griffin. He certainly won’t be able to switch off on guards without being exploited. He can’t pass, block, or steal.
At this point, he’d be a one dimensional player on a team full of multi-dimensional young talent. He could add weight that allows him to become a better rebounder, but is unlikely to ever be a serviceable defender or facilitator. Classic high floor, low ceiling player, which is a nice role player, but not what the Suns need in a top-10 pick.
Next: Should the Suns Draft Frank Ntilikina?
Conclusion
If Markkanen fell to the mid-teens and the Suns were able to trade into that spot, he could be an interesting acquisition. I can envision a scenario where a post player like Chriss or a slasher like Booker has Lauri on one side and Dragan on the other. That could be an impossible to defend offense.
That said, it’s just unlikely that the Suns see a fit when there are such clear needs at point guard and center and plenty of better fitting talent on the board where the Suns will pick. Markkanen will have some games in his long NBA career where he puts up some big numbers, they’re just likely to be infrequent, and in someone else’s jersey.