With the Suns in a position to be at the top of the draft, here is a look at the top-5 prospects to watch during the Madness of March.
The Suns season has been disappointing, but the upside to losing is finding themselves at the top of the lottery in a loaded draft. Phoenix currently owns the 3rd worst record in the NBA, better than the Brooklyn Nets and the Los Angeles Lakers. This gives the Suns a 15.6% chance at the number 1 pick and a 47% chance at a top-3 pick. Given that information, I wanted to do an advanced stats look at the top-5 prospects to watch for in March. Below is a table with the top-5 prospects in the upcoming draft, according to draftexpress.com. (All stats and information are from Draft Express as well)
Position |
Height & Wingspan
PPG
RPG
APG
PER
Markelle Fultz (Washington)
PG
6’4 & 6’9.75
23.3
5.9
6.0
28.5
Lonzo Ball (UCLA)
PG
6’6 & 6’7
15.0
6.3
7.6
25.8
Josh Jackson (Kansas)
SF
6’8 & 6’9.75
16.3
7.2
3.0
24.1
Dennis Smith (N.C. State)
PG
6’3
18.5
4.5
6.3
24.1
Jayson Tatum (Duke)
SF
6’8 & 6’11
16.1
7.4
2.3
22.1
All of these top players have very impressive numbers, especially Fultz and Ball at the top. Fultz stands out to me because of his wingspan. With a wingspan equal to Josh Jackson despite being 4 inches shorter, the length of Fultz is going to be a big factor for him at the next level. I didn’t include the wingspan for Dennis Smith because the most recent measurement for him is from 3 years ago and is likely no longer accurate. Below is a breakdown of some of the more advanced numbers for each of these guys.
| DRE per Min | USG% | TS% | OBPM | DBPM | |
Fultz |
0.22
31.2
0.56
7.7
1.3
Ball
0.33
18.3
0.68
8.9
3.8
Jackson
0.19
27.6
0.54
4.8
5.6
Smith
0.21
27.3
0.57
6.8
1
Tatum
0.16
26.2
0.56
3.2
4.8
Ball becomes the clear leader in the talent club house when focused on the efficiency metrics. His DRE and true shooting numbers blow the other players out of the water. This makes sense given Ball’s ability to have an impact in all aspects of the game and not just scoring. Ball’s low usage rate is of note because it could indicate him being a less ball-dominant player, but if you watch UCLA it sure does seem that he usually dominates the ball to set up his teammates before delivering a great pass.
Fultz’s per game numbers are good but he seems to be more one dimensional, in much the same way Smith is. They both are great scorers who don’t have as well-rounded games as Ball does.
Jackson and Tatum are slightly better defenders at this point, but it is important to note that Smith and Fultz play on teams that are significantly worse than the other three and that can have an impact on their defensice stats and metrics. Overall, by looking at the stats I would make the argument that Ball is the best player, especially for the Suns, given the Suns have two top scorers already in Devin Booker and Eric Bledsoe.
While these numbers can give a general look at all of these players and provide an idea as to what they bring to the table, I would suggest trying to watch at least one of their games to get a better idea of how they play and who they are as team leaders. Both Fultz and Smith play on teams with losing records and will see their last games as part of the conference tournaments this upcoming week (unless either is able to win their respective conference tournament). Smith and N.C State will play Clemson at Noon EST on Tuesday, while Washington plays USC at 830 pacific time on Wednesday. For Washington, Fultz has been injured, missing five of the last seven games including the last three, so he may or may not play Wednesday.
The other three, Ball, Jackson, and Tatum, will likely be part of deep tournament runs and definitely worth watching.
I would also recommend going to draftexpress.com to get more information on all of these guys. Also Draft Express posts scouting videos of all the top prospects that are are excellent and well worth the time in order to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of all the players.