What if David Stern hadn’t suspended Amare and Diaw? That question has echoed in my mind for almost ten years now. Horry rightfully would still be out two games but Phoenix would be at full strength for game 5 at home. Stoudemire was at the peak of his career and was averaging 23.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per game in the series so far. Diaw was the first big off the bench and vital to Phoenix because of his versatility and offensive ability in the pick and roll.
Without both of them in game 5, Phoenix was forced to start a small ball lineup with Kurt Thomas and Marion in the frontcourt and a three guard lineup of Nash, Raja Bell and Leandro Barbosa in the backcourt. The Suns ran a six-man rotation with James Jones as the only Suns reserve to play significant minutes. Even without their two most important big men (in my opinion Diaw was more important than Thomas for his versatility, especially offensively) and virtually no bench, the Suns led at halftime and only lost by three. It’s almost certain that part of the reason the Suns blew the lead in the second was due to fatigue, which wouldn’t have been as much of a factor with two more players in the rotation.
It’s impossible to say definitively that the Suns would have won game 5 if Amare and Diaw played, but now we’ll never know. Amare himself was absolutely enough to swing the course of a game and it’s not a reach to say that Phoenix would have protected home court and taken the 3-2 lead in the series. At that point, Phoenix would only have to win game 6 in San Antonio or game 7 back at home. San Antonio would have been without Horry in game 6 still, and would have had their backs to the wall. In that circumstance, I think the Suns win one of those two games and clinch the series.
Phoenix would have been awaited by a Utah Jazz team that was the weakest conference finals opponent that Phoenix would have faced in that three year span (2005-2007). In the actual conference finals vs San Antonio, Utah looked outmatched in all but one game (game 3 at home in Utah) and were eliminated in five. Phoenix would have been coming out of the San Antonio series with focus and confidence, knowing they had eliminated the biggest obstacle left in their path to the title. Maybe the Suns don’t win in 5, but I think they would have got the job done within 6 games.
In the NBA Finals, Phoenix would have played the Cleveland Cavaliers with a young LeBron James and not much else. Phoenix had blown them out in two games during the regular season and would have certainly won a series with them, possibly matching what the Spurs actually did by winning in a sweep. It’s easy to say all of this since Phoenix didn’t actually have to play any of these games, but it’s obvious that the path after the Spurs was ripe for the taking. I think it’s completely plausible, and actually probable, that Phoenix would have won its first NBA championship if the Suns had won game 5 against San Antonio.