April and Beyond…
First Impressions
The Suns only play seven games in April, but they’re all fascinating. All seven are against potential playoff teams (some more likely than others), but they really should be able to win each one of those games. To put it another way, there really isn’t any one matchup that seems impossible to win. They aren’t going into Oracle or the Q or anything like that.
Really, the Suns’ toughest game will be against Houston on the road, but they’ll have a day or rest before and after that game, so they should really be able to focus in.
But once again, this could go either way. The Suns could win five or six of these games and head into the playoffs with all the momentum in the world, or drop the three road games in the middle, get eliminated from playoff contention and crawl to the finish line. That’s certainly what happened to some degree last year.
Travel/Rest
As far as rest is concerned, the team should be absolutely fine. Starting on Mar. 26, the team plays every other day, which means no back-to-backs, unlike last year when they had two back-to-backs following that same starting point (Mar. 26).
And looking at travel, it’s the same story. Last year the Suns played six of their last eight games on the road; this year they finish with just over half their games in April at home, which should be a big boost.
Simply put, if the Suns can find a way to make it through February and March in playoff position, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to hold off their foes. The Pelicans, Kings and Jazz do have easier stretches to end the year, but the Suns will face off against each of them in April, which will give them a chance to knock their opponents down a peg. Additionally, the Mavericks finish with five games against Houston, Memphis, Los Angeles (Clippers), Utah and San Antonio, which could easily put them out of the race all together.
Matchups
Okay, so this year’s close really reminds me of two years ago, when the Suns got to take on the Mavericks and Grizzlies at the end of the year. The Suns finished within a game of Dallas and the eight seed, and just two back of Memphis once all was said and done.
Related: The Suns lost both of their games against Dallas and Memphis in April.
When it gets down to April, these are going to essentially be playoff games for the Suns. The Pelicans, Mavericks, Kings, Jazz and Suns are going to be battling for those last two spots, and the Suns will get to play three of those teams in their last six games; you can’t ask for much more.
And while some may view the April schedule as especially difficult, you just have to go back to last year to see how much harder it could’ve been.
One more deceptive thing to look out for: The Clippers might have locked up their playoff spot going into the last game of the season, so they may be a little cautious and rest Chris Paul and Blake Griffin for the final game, especially considering that both guys missed time with injuries last year (Griffin in the regular season, Paul in the playoffs).
Predictions
I’m usually an optimist when it comes to team outlook and a pessimist when it comes to picking games, but to this point I feel like I’ve been pretty positive about the team and that’s going to continue.
If the Suns can win their first two games of April and then knock off the Pelicans and Kings to finish things off, that could very well be enough to get the job done. However, any slips and they could very well close out the year with a below .500 month; that could cost them dearly.
Bottom line: 4-3 (45-37)
Realistic best-case April scenario: 5-2 (54-28)
Realistic worst-case April scenario: 2-5 (33-49)
Next: Overall impressions and notes...