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Should T.J. Warren Start Over P.J. Tucker In 2015-16?

By Gerald Bourguet

Apr 14, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns forward T.J. Warren (12) against the Los Angeles Clippers at US Airways Center. The Clippers beat the Suns 112-101. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 14, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns forward T.J. Warren (12) against the Los Angeles Clippers at US Airways Center. The Clippers beat the Suns 112-101. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
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T.J. Warren
Apr 4, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns forward P.J. Tucker (17) reacts after making a three point basket against the Utah Jazz at US Airways Center. The Suns won 87-85. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

Warren vs. Tucker

As you can tell, a lot of this conversation has to do with factors that don’t even involve P.J. Tucker or T.J. Warren. Let’s dumb down the discussion for a minute and take a look at what each one brings to the table. Here are their basic stat lines from 2014-15:

  • Tucker:  30.6 MPG, 9.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, .438/.345/.727 shooting, 12.5 PER
  • Warren: 15.4 MPG, 6.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.5 SPG, .528/.238/.737 shooting, 14.0 PER

The basic numbers are skewed in Tucker’s favor, as is the fact that he’s lightyears ahead of Warren on the defensive end of the floor and on the glass. But the advanced stats seem to favor Warren.

Tucker played nearly four times as many minutes and nearly twice as many games as Warren did this season. But based on what we saw after the All-Star break, when the rookie averaged 7.8 points in 19.5 minutes per game on 55 percent shooting, it’s hard to resist the urge to throw Warren into the fire as a starter.

Being effective in half as many minutes is one explanation for his superior efficiency, but the Suns’ rookie posted some really impressive Per 36 Minutes numbers regardless:

Player G MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA FT FTA TRB AST STL TOV PTS
P.J. Tucker 78 2383 3.9 9.0 .438 1.3 3.8 1.6 2.2 7.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 10.8
T.J. Warren 40 614 6.6 12.5 .528 0.3 1.2 0.8 1.1 5.0 1.5 1.1 1.6 14.4

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/4/2015.

Tucker is more of a veteran and he’s a far better defender, rebounder and three-point shooter. But Warren looked less like a rookie as the season progressed and more like a player who needs to be given as many minutes as possible moving forward.

The reason? Warren’s probably one of the smartest offensive players on this team already. He’s capable of sneaking to the open spot, he actually moves off the ball and he knows how to finish around the basket. He and Tucker are very different players, but I don’t think anyone would disagree Scorin’ Warren has a much higher ceiling.

At 21 years old, Warren is eight years younger than Tucker. That means his development should take precedence over Tucker’s minutes unless the Suns are competing for something, as we’ve already covered. But it also means there’s no immediate rush to get him in there. As much as being patient has been a pain in the ass for both Warren and Goodwin, their time is coming.

Rushing it for the sake of rushing it isn’t the answer either.

Next: The Verdict

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