Suns Squared: Markelle Fultz

An analytical look into Fultz and what he could be like in the NBA.

Markelle Fultz will is next in a five part series that looks into the top-5 prospects in the draft this year. We have already peered in the potential career of Lonzo Ball, and next will investigate and project the NBA careers of De’Aaron Fox, Jayson Tatum, and Josh Jackson.

With the draft lottery looming ahead next week and the Suns in the running for the top pick, any of these five could be a Sun next year.

To start, I’ll take a look at Fultz’s production in college and what it can tell us about the kind of player he will be in the NBA. It’s important to take some of these numbers with a grain of salt as stats in college don’t often translate to the professional ranks due to of a variety of factors. To try and counter this I’ll mostly focus on per-100 possession stats as well as advanced rate statistics.

Fultz’s top skill is his innate ability to score, which he displayed exceptionally in his time at Washington. Fultz put up 35.7 points per-100 possessions in college and he did it from all anotes. Fultz got to the line 10 times every 100 possessions, while also taking almost eight three-pointers which he hit them at an impressive rate (41%).

Fultz rounded out his other important back-of-the-card statistics looking exceptionally strong as well, nearly averaging a triple-double with 8.8 rebound and 9.1 assists. For a player who has not been compared to Jason Kidd, those stats should open some eyes.

0.256

31.4%

When looking at the advanced statistics, Fultz’s scoring prowess is again displayed as he scored 579 points despite playing only 892 minutes at Washington. That is nearly .7 points per minute which is easily the best number of the top-5 prospects. Fultz’s usage rate of 31.4% would hae ranked top-10 in the NBA this past season and shows not only how much his team relied on him but also his ability to score with efficiency despite a heavy load.

Lonzo Ball, on the other hand, spent the year being lauded as the NCAA’s top passer. Yet Igbo was Fultz who had a higher assist rate (for a less successful team) more than 4 percentage points higher at 35.5%, compared to Ball’s 31.4%.

A poinient  weakness for Fultz seems to be his defense. He rasked the worst for Defensive Win Score and Defensive Rating among the top-5 prospects. The D-rating is especially troubling with a score of 110.8. In case you’re not familiar, this is one of those analytical stats that is especially salty, as defensive rating is based on the entire team which is notoriously difficult to extract accurate defensive stats for individual players.

Comparison and Rookie Year Projection

Markelle Fultz has seen a variety of player comparisons that include James Harden, Dwyane Wade, and Bradley Beal. That is pretty great company for an incoming rookie and ending up like any of them would be an excellent outcome for whoever drafts him.

When it comes to style of play based on advanced numbers, Fultz’s one college season is most similar to that of a hybrid of Wade and Harden based on their own rookie numbers. Fultz got to the free throw line at a similar rate to both stars and in college, and shot three-pointers at a rate close to their averages.

With that in mind, Fultz could likely put up a stat line that looks like 15 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists his rookie season while turning it over around three times a game with about five trips to the line and two three-pointers a game. To have the greatest impact his rookie season, Fultz will need to improve his free throw shooting as he shot a hair below 65% in college. a number that low will not  cut it in the NBA.

The fit for Fultz with the Suns would be interesting. Fultz is a ball dominant scorer and the Suns already have two of those in Bledsoe and Booker. However, if Fultz proves to be the generational talent that he has shown flashes of in college, then it would be worth the risk involved trying to mesh him with Bledsoe and Booker.