The Phoenix Suns can beat the Miami Heat for many reasons when they battle in the fifth bubble game Saturday night but here is the top five.
The Phoenix Suns take on the Miami Heat in game five of the Great Bubble Games on Saturday evening. Thus far, the Suns have been playing some of the best basketball Disney World has ever seen, and they’ve turned that into four straight wins.
In order to keep their playoff hopes alive, they will need to keep winning and next on the docket is a Heat team who beat them early in the season 124-108 in a game between two surprise squads off to a hot start.
Unfortunately, one team proved to be for real, while the other quickly plummeted down the standings.
Now, however, the Phoenix Suns are catapulting back up the tables and a win over the Heat on Saturday would put them ever so closer to an improbable playoff birth. This is, of course, assuming the Memphis Grizzlies and/or Portland Trail Blazers lose a few more games, which is no guarantee.
The Heat are a good team, secure in their playoff position as either the 4 or 5-seed. They don’t have much to play for, but that doesn’t mean they won’t come out trying to burst the Suns’ bubble.
The Suns got this, though, and here are five reasons they will prevail:
5. The Heat have a depleted roster
Like most playoff teams, the Heat are led by a superstar. In Miami’s case, it is Jimmy Butler, but fortunately for the Suns, he won’t be playing on Saturday. On top of that, Kendrick Nunn has left the bubble for personal reasons, reportedly unrelated to COVID-19.
On top of that, two-time former Phoenix Suns guard and possessor a top 20 franchise nickname, Goran Dragic, is questionable with an ankle injury. I can’t imagine he will push to return given Miami’s current bubble situation.
Even the non-injured players are suffering. Bam Adebayo admitted he’s not feeling 100 percent and former starter Miles Leonard has played himself out of the rotation.
Outside of Bam and Leonard’s struggles, assuming Dragic doesn’t play, the Heat will be missing 51.6 points per game that will have to be made up from their substitutes. For most teams, this would be nearly impossible, but not quite so with the Heat.
Bench players like Tyler Herro (who claims to model his game after Devin Booker) have been big for the Heat. Herro put up 20 points last game against the Bucks and will no doubt come out hungry to showcase his talents in front of his role model.
Similarly, former Phoenix Suns Airplane Mode, Derrick Jones Jr., has been filling in admirably, and he put up 12 points in limited minutes. Former players always seem to play well against the Suns, so he is someone to watch.
Regardless, this isn’t the same team the Suns lost to back in November. They are limited, and good teams should attack a team when they’re vulnerable. The Suns, in their journey to be a good team, can do exactly that.
4. Motivation will be high between milestone game and must-win situation
After some encouraging losses by the teams in front of them early in the seeding games, Friday wasn’t great in the world of Phoenix Suns scoreboard watching. The Pelicans, Spurs, and Grizzlies all won, creating an even tinier margin of error for the Phoenix Suns.
We knew this was true prior to Friday, but every game is a must-win for the Phoenix Suns. In turn, their motivation through the roof, as this must be treated as another survive-and-advance scenario. A loss on Saturday evening will create a very difficult hole in which to climb out with limited opportunities left.
On top of that, a win against the Heat would be a milestone fifth win in a row, which would be the most wins in a row Devin Booker has every experienced in this professional career. Unfortunately, he’s been on the wrong side of this streak, having lost a wretched 17 straight at one point, but this would be a milestone worth shooting for, even if it weren’t for playoff implications.
Overall, the motivation factor for the Suns should be sky-high, especially compared to that of the Miami Heat who have very little to play for. The Suns have to use that, and the momentum they’ve built thus far in the bubble, to propel themselves to a victory.
3. Dario Saric’s confidence off the bench
When Dario Saric was first relegated to the bench in favor of Mikal Bridges, he, understandably, wasn’t too thrilled about it. Now, he finds himself in a similar situation with Johnny-come-lately, Cameron Johnson, usurping him in the rotation.
Dario is taking that perceived slight and proving to everyone he is a high-caliber NBA role player. Saric has so much more freedom to do this thing with the second unit. His rebounding is unimpeded, his hustle is contagious, and his scoring ability becomes a focal point rather than a nice-to-have.
Jevon Carter is capable of knocking down shots and often generates layups with his defense, but no one is going to mistake him for a bucket-getter. Frank Kaminsky was a one-time consistent producer off the bench earlier this year, but seven months with no basketball and a kneecap fracture recovery are proving to be more debilitating than expected.
That provides Dario Saric the freedom in a half-court set to flex, and thus far, he has taken advantage. In bubble play, you can essentially mark him down for 16 points and eight rebounds. It is nearly automatic.
Dario’s confidence off the bench can exploit the Heat’s depleted roster, and I expect another good game out of everyone’s favorite big-butted Croatian.
2. Cameron Payne’s resurgence
I am going to write an entire section on Cam Payne without making a single pun about his name. Don’t think I can do it? Watch.
A simple truth here: The Suns are not 4-0 in the bubble without Cameron Payne. If Monty Williams doesn’t make that call to him, Ty Jerome is leading the second unit, and as much success as I wish on that guy, the NBA is just too much for him right now.
Payne is averaging 11.5 points per game in the bubble, and while that is undoubtedly too small of a sample size to draw a meaningful conclusion, it is also more than double the points per game average of any of the Suns’ other backup point guards’ season so that has to mean something.
There are still a few shots he takes that I would consider ill-advised, but he is making them and when he is leading a group that hasn’t played much together, taking matters into his own hands is understandable. So far, it seems to be working, so keep at it.
The Heat’s second team is going to be vulnerable and the Suns’ bench, led by Payne, can (and will) take advantage.
There is still a lot of basketball to be played but at this point, but if the Suns could only bring back one backup point guard next year, I would vote for Cam Payne!
(Ah, dammit! I almost made it.)
1. The Suns have Devin Booker and the Heat don’t
On the playground at recess in grade school, there was this kid who was horrible at basketball. I mean, just rotten. However, every day (and I mean every single day), he would act as the ringleader of the courts and say something like this:
“Me, Brandt, Matt, Chase, and Cory will take on EVERYBODY!”
When he said everybody, he literally meant everybody. Brandt, Matt, Chase, and Cory were by far the best basketball players in the class, so this kid’s goal was to play five on 15-plus with him and the class’s playground stars taking on as many scrubs that were willing to take part this exercise.
It is kind of like the age-old philosophical question, how many third-graders could you take in a fight?
Anyway, my point is of that absurdly random anecdote is that I could totally be that kid and say, “Okay, me Devin, Ricky, Mikal, and Deandre will take on EVERYBODY!” and feel confident in our ability to win. And with all due respect to Ricky Rubio, Mikal Bridges, and Deandre Ayton, what really makes me say that with fervor is Devin Booker.
Book has been one of the brightest stars of the bubble, averaging 28 points per game, good for 7th best in the NBA since the return. Of the Heat players who will be suiting up on Saturday evening, Kelly Olynyk has the highest scoring average at 16.3 points per game, good for 58th in the NBA. Next on the list is Duncan Robinson with 15.5 points (63rd in the league).
If Booker can have another solid performance and the Suns can keep the likes of Kelly Olynyk and Duncan Robinson in check, then Book is going to experience the longest winning streak of his career.
Get it, Suns.