Heading into the 2015-16 season, the Phoenix Suns have a lot to look forward to, even from a simple entertainment perspective.
After a limited sample size last year, the world will get to see how Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight fit together in the backcourt. Tyson Chandler and his veteran leadership will be a key watching point. How Markieff Morris plays without his brother Marcus Morris is another story line to keep an eye on, and we haven’t even mentioned new bench additions like Mirza Teletovic or Sonny Weems.
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But for such a young group, the consistent theme seems to be how the team’s core will develop this season as the Suns gun for the playoffs. At the forefront of that conversation is 21-year-old T.J. Warren, a scoring machine whose rookie season was better than the final numbers indicate.
As fans sit back and admire Warren’s NBA Summer League exploits and how naturally the game comes to him, it’s hard to avoid thinking about his potential for a breakout season in 2015-16.
Next: What We Saw From The Rookie
What We Saw In 2014-15
As a rookie, Warren averaged a lukewarm 6.1 points and 2.1 rebounds in 15.4 minutes per game. Once he started getting consistent minutes, however, his knack for putting the ball in the basket was on full display.
His 52.8 field goal percentage ranked seventh among rookies, but of the six players in front of him, only Mitch McGary (165) and Tarik Black (273) attempted a noteworthy amount of field goals compared to Warren (214).
The young small forward will need to work on being able to spread the floor with a three-point shot in the future, but he stuck to his strengths as a rookie and was highly efficient around the basket, where the majority of his shots came from:
Warren attempted 62 percent of his shots right at the basket, converting at a 64 percent rate — nine percent better than the league average. That’s pretty darn efficient, especially since he consistently passed the eye test as the Suns’ smartest player on the offensive end of the floor.
Warren is able to finish around contact and does a great job using the underside of the rim as protection against pursuing defenders, but he got a good number of open looks simply by sneaking to the right spot on the floor.
This kid has a nose for the basket and when you pair that with his speed off the dribble and his deadly efficient floater, you’ve got a player that’s nearly impossible to stop in the midrange or when he’s attacking the basket — either in the half-court or in transition.
Warren had some problems working within the team’s defensive schemes, but he held his own in one-on-one situations and he’s only going to get better. He wasn’t a star in his first NBA season, but he showed plenty of potential to inspire belief in his future and excitement for the day he starts to put it all together.
Next: The Opportunity Is There
Clearing The SF Logjam
Heading into the 2015-16 season, nobody has a better opportunity in front of him than T.J. Warren. When the Suns were pursuing LaMarcus Aldridge, general manager Ryan McDonough made a trade with the Detroit Pistons to clear out cap space.
Phoenix finished second in the Aldridge sweepstakes, but that trade still benefitted the Suns in a huge way, since it just so happened to also clear out two of the four small forwards on the roster (Marcus Morris and Danny Granger). Even before the trade, I wasn’t the only one advocating for Warren to start at the 3 next season.
Now that P.J. Tucker and T.J. Warren are the only small forwards on the roster, Warren’s competition just got a little bit thinner.
There is absolutely no scenario where TJ Warren shouldn't be the starting small forward for the Phoenix Suns on 2015's opening night
— Tony Jones (@Tjonesonthenba) April 3, 2015
There’s a good chance that Tucker remains the starting 3 for the Suns come opening night. There’s also a good chance Tucker holds on to that designation for the entire 2015-16 season, especially since Phoenix will be looking to end its five-year playoff drought. Warren might not be ready for a starting role, especially on the defensive end of the floor.
However, even if Warren comes off the bench, he’ll no longer have to worry about competing with Mook or the veteran Granger for shots and minutes. It’s not just a matter of playing the younger guys so they can develop either; if the Suns want to make the playoffs next season, Warren’s efficient scoring off the bench — possibly in a sixth man role — will move them closer to that goal.
Next: Summer League Blinders
NBA Summer League Signs
Anything that happens in NBA Summer League should always be taken with a grain of salt. But Warren’s game — from last year’s Summer League to his stints with the Bakersfield Jam to his time with the Suns to his exploits in this year’s Summer League — has remained pretty much the same.
His numbers have looked more impressive given the level of competition, but his game continues to improve all the same.
Bearing that in mind, it’s hard to NOT be excited about how Warren has been dominating Summer League play through the Suns’ first three games. He’s easily been Phoenix’s best, most efficient and most consistent player so far, making it look easy with an array of circus layups, floaters and midrange jumpers.
Obviously Warren’s gaudy numbers in Summer League and the D-League don’t correlate to his NBA numbers, but it’s reasonable to wonder what he’ll be capable of in 2015-16 now that the rookie adjustment stage is long gone. Even if he’s coming off the bench, he’ll be getting consistent minutes and his play during Summer League is proving that he’s ready to take the next step.
It’s never a good idea to fall in love with a player while wearing those Summer League blinders, but that mostly applies to rookies and unproven prospects. For T.J. Warren, he’s simply carrying forward his momentum from the end of last season by doing what is expected of him: dominating the lesser competition. That can only be a good sign heading into his sophomore season.
. @TonyWarrenJr The Finisher! #SummerSuns pic.twitter.com/uFaisZkOaW
— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) July 12, 2015
Next: Warren, Small-Ball 4?
Small-Ball Lineup Potential
Again, take this with a Summer League-sized grain of salt, but over the last few games, Warren has also showcased another element of his skill set that could be useful next season: his ability to log some time at the 4 in small-ball lineups.
The obvious disclaimer is that the Suns are able to get away with it because this is Summer League basketball. Guarding a power forward like rookie Trey Lyles is one thing, but trying to use Warren to out-small-ball a team like the Memphis Grizzlies won’t work. Unfortunately, the Phoenix Suns are not the Golden State Warriors.
However, Warren has impressed during his time in Las Vegas at the 4, blowing by his defender on one end and relatively holding his own on the other. Theoretically, he’d need to do a better job helping out on the boards if he were to log time as a small-ball 4, but the potential is there. Is it wrong to think he could become a Harrison Barnes-type, minus the three-point range?
Warren has done pretty well as a small-ball 4. He needs to rebound a bit better, but if Len is going to grab 14 in 23 min it's not a problem
— Jacob Padilla (@JacobPadilla_) July 15, 2015
In his rookie season, Barnes moving to the 4 was the key reason the Warriors upset the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs. At 6’8″ and 215 pounds, Warren is the same height as Barnes and only 10 pounds lighter.
Barnes was a much better defensive prospect when he entered the league and he had more range as well, but I think most Suns fans would be ecstatic if Warren tried to emulate Barnes’ game as a small-ball 4 in certain lineups. There’s also less of a chance that Warren’s foot speed would be exposed if he were able to bulk up and muscle 4s down low rather than strictly relegating him to defending quicker small forwards on the perimeter.
This won’t make or break Warren’s success next season, and he’ll need to develop some range to ever become a stretch-4. But even without the long-term small-ball potential, T.J. Warren is in a great position to take advantage of his opportunity and break through in 2015-16.
Next: Should The Suns Trade Markieff Morris?