Before the All-Star break, the biggest gripe against head coach Jeff Hornacek was a shortage of minutes for youngsters Archie Goodwin and T.J. Warren. The Phoenix Suns were trending downward, and that was before Goran Dragic came out and told the world he wouldn’t re-sign with the team.
The trade deadline dismantled a team that could have contended for one of the final playoff spots in the West, but by bringing in draft picks and a combo guard who’s six years younger (Dragic turns 29 tomorrow), the Suns placed their bets on the future.
With that in mind, it’s a fair question: Should this young Suns team go all out with a developmental focus and start T.J. Warren over P.J. Tucker at small forward next season?
Even with a 10-18 record following the All-Star break, the Suns were still relatively close in the playoff hunt for the eighth seed. If it weren’t for injuries to Brandon Knight and Alex Len, they might have been able to make a run at the postseason.
On that basis, starting the unpolished Scorin’ Warren over an underrated defender like Tucker seems silly. But when you look at the current state of the franchise, it starts to become more of a legitimate question.
Next: The Current State
The Current State Of The Team
With the way the team is currently constructed, it’s hard to support starting Tucker over Warren. Tucker is obviously the better player right now, but he’s also 29 years old. As much as he’s been labeled as a “locker room leader,” he doesn’t really fit the mold of this youth movement in Phoenix.
Eric Bledsoe, Markieff Morris and Alex Len are all coming off career seasons. Brandon Knight was having a career season with the Milwaukee Bucks before he struggled to adjust to playing with the Suns (in a limited sample size). All four of those projected starters are 25 years or younger and have plenty of room to grow.
When the Suns re-signed Tucker to a three-year, $16.5 million deal last summer, they envisioned the team taking the next step toward the playoffs behind Dragic, a full/healthy season from Bledsoe and a bench boost from Sixth Man of the Year favorite Isaiah Thomas. But the chemistry was off, the Suns fell short and now we’re left questioning what the goal for 2015-16 should be.
Making the playoffs is obviously a high priority. This young core is never going to get better if they don’t get the chance to take their licks in the postseason. It’s all part of the growing up process.
But as currently constructed, this team still may not have enough to make the playoffs in the brutal Western Conference next season.
Next: The Lay Of The Land
The Lay Of The Land
The Golden State Warriors aren’t going anywhere. Neither are the Houston Rockets, and even if DeAndre Jordan leaves the Los Angeles Clippers this summer, it’d take some major dismantling to prevent Chris Paul and Blake Griffin from being a top team in the NBA again next year.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will be healthy again next season (fingers crossed) and the New Orleans Pelicans are only going to get better as Anthony Davis stakes his claim for interstellar domination. Even the Utah Jazz had a tremendous second half of the season with their young core clicking following the Enes Kanter trade.
That leaves us with the Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks, all of which have a number of important free agents this summer.
The Mavs seem like the unlikeliest candidate to regroup and make the playoffs again next season, and the Blazers may be in that same boat if LaMarcus Aldridge leaves in free agency. But the Grizzlies probably have a good shot at re-signing Marc Gasol and if you think Kawhi Leonard and Tim Duncan are done as Spurs, you’re kidding yourself.
So even if the Mavs, Blazers and Grizzlies all fall off the map, that leaves the Suns to compete with Oklahoma City, New Orleans and Utah for the three other playoff spots. And even if they did earn a postseason berth, they’d be looking at an early first round exit.
Bledsoe, Keef, Len and the rest of the young Suns players all have tons of room for growth in 2015-16. But are they going to grow that much to make the Suns anything other than first round fodder? By that line of reasoning, it still feels hard to justify playing Tucker with the goal of a first round playoff exit rather than playing Warren with the goal of long-term development.
Next: This Summer
This Summer
As currently constructed, the Suns are (at best) a first round playoff team. But none of this takes into account what could happen this summer. There are a ton of big-name free agents hitting the market this offseason, and although the Suns will most likely wind up with the No. 13 pick in this year’s draft, they do have a 0.6 percent chance at the No. 1 pick and a 2.2 percent chance at a top-three pick.
Okay, so maybe the Suns won’t pull a Chicago Bulls-getting-Derrick Rose, but they’ll have a lottery pick no matter what, they have cap space this summer and they are fully cognizant of the fact that this team still needs a superstar.
Phoenix was active in trying to add a star last summer with guys like LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Love. Unfortunately, the last time the Suns added a bonafide superstar via free agency was Steve Nash in 2004, and Phoenix’s focus on re-signing Brandon Knight will most likely eat up quite a bit of that cap room.
However, if general manager Ryan McDonough is able to buck the recurring trend of the last decade by adding a star this summer, then obviously this discussion changes. The sooner the Suns are able to integrate a star with their young core, the sooner they can theoretically move toward contending.
I'd also really like to see TJ Warren play more minutes at the 3. Maybe consider starting him to see how he does with Bledsoe distributing.
— Sean Sullivan (@SeanSullivanNBA) March 20, 2015
There’s also the possibility the Suns try to package the Morris twins in a blockbuster deal, pending the results of their felony aggravated assault charges. Or, you know, because they could probably net the Suns the biggest return, even if they are found innocent.
In any event, Tucker is probably not a starting-caliber forward on a championship team. But he’s better than Warren is right now, so if the Suns change their situation this summer and move closer toward the ultimate goal of title contention, the 21-year-old Warren should continue to be patient coming off the bench.
Next: An Added Wrinkle
Warren vs. Tucker
As you can tell, a lot of this conversation has to do with factors that don’t even involve P.J. Tucker or T.J. Warren. Let’s dumb down the discussion for a minute and take a look at what each one brings to the table. Here are their basic stat lines from 2014-15:
- Tucker: 30.6 MPG, 9.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, .438/.345/.727 shooting, 12.5 PER
- Warren: 15.4 MPG, 6.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.5 SPG, .528/.238/.737 shooting, 14.0 PER
The basic numbers are skewed in Tucker’s favor, as is the fact that he’s lightyears ahead of Warren on the defensive end of the floor and on the glass. But the advanced stats seem to favor Warren.
Tucker played nearly four times as many minutes and nearly twice as many games as Warren did this season. But based on what we saw after the All-Star break, when the rookie averaged 7.8 points in 19.5 minutes per game on 55 percent shooting, it’s hard to resist the urge to throw Warren into the fire as a starter.
Being effective in half as many minutes is one explanation for his superior efficiency, but the Suns’ rookie posted some really impressive Per 36 Minutes numbers regardless:
| Player | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | FT | FTA | TRB | AST | STL | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Tucker | 78 | 2383 | 3.9 | 9.0 | .438 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 10.8 |
| T.J. Warren | 40 | 614 | 6.6 | 12.5 | .528 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 14.4 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/4/2015.
Tucker is more of a veteran and he’s a far better defender, rebounder and three-point shooter. But Warren looked less like a rookie as the season progressed and more like a player who needs to be given as many minutes as possible moving forward.
The reason? Warren’s probably one of the smartest offensive players on this team already. He’s capable of sneaking to the open spot, he actually moves off the ball and he knows how to finish around the basket. He and Tucker are very different players, but I don’t think anyone would disagree Scorin’ Warren has a much higher ceiling.
At 21 years old, Warren is eight years younger than Tucker. That means his development should take precedence over Tucker’s minutes unless the Suns are competing for something, as we’ve already covered. But it also means there’s no immediate rush to get him in there. As much as being patient has been a pain in the ass for both Warren and Goodwin, their time is coming.
Rushing it for the sake of rushing it isn’t the answer either.
Next: The Verdict
The Verdict: Start Warren (For Now)
If the Suns are unable to significantly alter their situation heading into the 2015-16 season, starting Warren seems like the logical play. The odds of it actually happening? Probably not great. This franchise loves Tucker for his gritty playing style and on such a young team, he’s constantly singled out as a leader on the floor and in the locker room.
But if this team’s core is still the same after this summer, starting Warren at small forward would be the best option. Unless we see some radical changes in the Western Conference this offseason, the Suns max out as a first round playoff exit. No offense to Tucker, but the end of his prime does not coincide with the prime of this current group.
By looking at it from that perspective, Warren’s development becomes a much higher priority than preserving Tucker’s dignity. He’d be making an awful lot of money for a backup small forward, but the Suns have flexibility. Even if the front office abhorred paying that much for a reserve, they could always trade him to alleviate the situation.
There is absolutely no scenario where TJ Warren shouldn't be the starting small forward for the Phoenix Suns on 2015's opening night
— Tony Jones (@Tjonesonthenba) April 3, 2015
A Tucker trade isn’t necessary, and to be honest, it’s probably too soon to make a definitive statement on this discussion right now anyway. After all, this team could look very different come October, especially since no one is off-limits. We’ll probably have to revisit this topic in a few months.
Furthermore, that kind of roster change wouldn’t be immediate. Warren would have to earn it with a strong performances during NBA Summer League, training camp and the first few months of the season. Remember, we saw this last season with Len having to earn his starting job over Miles Plumlee, a process that took a few months.
But if the Suns aren’t going anywhere next season, they should call 2015-16 what it is — a developmental year — and focus on getting as many minutes as possible to the players who are crucial to this franchise taking the next step. On that ladder, T.J. Warren is definitely higher up than P.J. Tucker.
Next: Phoenix Suns: 2014-15 Player Grades