Matt Ishbia was lying through his teeth.
In the aftermath of the Phoenix Suns' humiliating sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix owner Matt Ishbia declared that 26 other GMs would want to swap places with the Suns. He bragged about their star power and promised that a few tweaks would have the Suns back in contention for a title.
The problem is that it is going to take more than a few "tweaks" to take the Suns from first-round punching bags to true title contenders. They mortgaged their future to add Kevin Durant and jettisoned their remaining depth to add Bradley Beal. Now they are well above the second luxury tax apron, restricting their ability to make changes to the roster, and they only have this year's first-round pick and a single second in the future to include in trades.
How to the Suns change the team this summer?
That's the kind of situation no GM wants to swap into, and it presents an impossible decision before the Suns: do they run it back, make those few tweaks and hope things go better? Or do they move off of one of their two key stars, recoup some assets and retool for another run in a season or two?
The barrier to the second option is that the Suns don't control any of their own future picks, so the risk of losing and not receiving any reward for it is sharp. The solution may have just appeared, however, when the Houston Rockets got involved with a New York blockbuster on Tuesday night.
The Rockets traded for a Phoenix first-round pick from the Brooklyn Nets and also got the rights to a swap. The reason was declared right away by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski: the Rockets were after Kevin Durant.
The implications of the Rockets landing the Suns' picks? Houston wants to trade for Kevin Durant and that becomes far easier if they can return the Suns' picks that they gave up in the Durant deal to the Nets. Suns have said they're keeping Durant for now, but that could change…
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 26, 2024
Can the Rockets make a real run at Kevin Durant? Would the Suns entertain the possibility? Let's lay out what a trade could look like and evaluate it from both sides.
Details of a Kevin Durant blockbuster trade
The Houston Rockets have a roster packed with young prospects and expiring money, and on top of that own the No. 3 pick in this year's draft and have a bevy of future draft capital. That includes the Suns' own 2027 first-round pick and swaps in 2025 and 2029. There are a lot of different ways to build out a trade for Kevin Durant.
A couple of guardrails exist. The Phoenix Suns are well above the second tax apron, which means they are restricted in how they can execute trades. They cannot aggregate players in a deal, which means they can only send out one player per deal. Additionally, they cannot take back more money than they send out.
Phoenix has a desire to win right now, but trading Kevin Durant would recognize that roster retooling is necessary. They could try and thread the needle by adding win-now players and draft picks and then flipping those picks for veteran help, or they could invest in young prospects who can either grow into a new core around Devin Booker or be used in a trade at the deadline, next summer or beyond.
Here is one such trade construction that focuses more on the young talent than the win-now veterans:
The Houston Rockets get their superstar centerpiece for their team and still have plenty left over to compete with him. A starting lineup of Fred VanVleet, Jae'Sean Tate, Dillon Brooks, Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun would have a lot of upside, and Amen Thompson and Tari Eason would still be coming in off the bench. The Rockets would have a small amount of flexibility to add another contributor or two.
It's a steep price to pay for Durant, and likely only makes sense if they truly expect to contend for a title right away. Kevin Durant played at a Top-10 level last season without question, and he will elevate the Rockets significantly. Is he worth giving up such a large haul?
The answer is probably yes, which turns the spotlight to the Phoenix Suns. Would they make this deal?
Should the Suns say yes?
The Phoenix Suns don't have a lot of easy answers awaiting them this summer. They are extremely expensive to the point that team-building tools are being taken away, they are top-heavy, and they don't have the assets to do anything about it.
A trade like this would be painful, as it would be admitting that the Kevin Durant trade didn't work. It would also lower their ceiling significantly for next year, although it's hard to imagine they were truly in the title mix under any scenario that involved keeping the core three stars.
On the other hand, it's an incredible haul of players and picks. To match Durant's salary the Rockets had to stack up a number of players, and most of them are on expiring money that gives the Suns flexibility next summer to either bring them back or cut them loose. Jalen Green is wildly inconsistent but his best flashes are as good as anyone in the league. Jabari Smith Jr. is an extremely reliable 3-and-D big man. Cam Whitmore is a worthy flier after a strong rookie campaign.
The Suns would also be refilling the draft pick coffers, adding back a handful of picks and swaps, including the Suns' own pick and swaps owed. That includes the No. 3 pick in this year's draft, an excellent commodity for Phoenix whether it uses the pick or trades it to the highest bidder.
The Suns would have the flexibility to flip prospects and picks for a different star down the line, or can wait out a couple of years of Bradley Beal's contract while the young players develop and then make their big swing. Moving Durant allows them to reset their timeline by a few years at least.
Houston may not be willing to offer this much for Kevin Durant. The Phoenix Suns may not be willing to entertain the idea of trading Kevin Durant. If the two parties come together, however, it could very well end with Kevin Durant off the team and the Houston Rockets looking to make some noise next season.
Grade: B+