How many games will the Phoenix Suns win in 2023-24?

The Phoenix Suns’ regular season schedule was released last week, and with it the chance for fans to get excited about a campaign that has the potential to be the best in franchise history. While that run to the 2021 NBA Finals will live long in the memory, it all came crashing down at the last hurdle.

That 2021 group was a likeable one that featured Devin Booker, Chris Paul, the best version of Deandre Ayton we have ever seen, and the one that got away in Mikal Bridges. Before getting to the postseason though, the Suns have to find a way to bring together a new star player in Bradley Beal, a remade coaching staff, and a whole host of role players.

Predicting how many regular season wins this franchise will amass is hard, but there is no doubt expectations are high.

Bleacher Report has the Suns hitting the 50 win mark, which would be a great start for this group. The Western Conference is going to be extremely crowded however, and even that may not be enough to secure home court advantage beyond the first round of the postseason. So let’s take this one month by month, to see if we can correctly predict how many wins the Suns will collect.

October 2023 (4 games)

The Suns have a tricky start to 2023-24, as they take on the Golden State Warriors on opening night, then the Los Angeles Lakers two days later. Both are live on national television, and both are away from home. This is a big ask to start the season.

We’ve already talked about the need not to panic if the Suns start 0-2, because the Warriors at home (and with Chris Paul making his competitive debut against the Suns), are going to be an extremely hard out. Then, depending on how you think the Lakers did this offseason, Ayton will have to be ready for both Anthony Davis and LeBron James inside.

We’ll start this campaign optimistically, and say that the Suns split these two. We’ll give the Warriors that win, before the Suns have their home opener against the Utah Jazz. The San Antonio Spurs come to town to finish this month, and winning both of these contests seems achievable.

After an offseason of much discussion, this team are sure to come out of the blocks quickly. Continuing this optimistic outlook, and perhaps losing to the Warriors in their first game will be the kick they need to go on a bit of a run, before looking at ways to begin to rest their star players some.

Record: 3-1

November 2023

We’ll really be getting into the action at this point, with the Suns playing 14 games this month. It all kicks off with the Spurs sticking around for what should be another beating, and it will be fun to see Victor Wembanyama up close for two straight games.

Then comes a three game swing out East, where the Detroit Pistons and Chicago Bulls should pose no problems. The reeling Philadelphia 76ers begin that trip for the Suns, and right now it is impossible to tell what sort of group they’ll be. As a result of not knowing how the 76ers will even look, this could well be a three game road trip of all Ws, which sets the team up nicely.

Back home for three more, and the Lakers are the hardest of the three opponents the group will face. We’ll again give the Suns the win, because this will be the opening in-season tournament game, and the team will be looking to lay down a marker.

They are going to trip up at some point though, and the Minnesota Timberwolves could well be the banana skin. Rudy Gobert is hitting 3-pointers now. Two games in Utah vs the Jazz follow, the first being another tournament game. We’ll split that series 1-1. Altitude and all that. The Warriors are in town November 22, in a revenge win for the Suns.

The close out the month it is another three games away from home, against the Memphis Grizzlies, New York Knicks and Toronto Raptors. A bit of travel involved there, and at this point the unfortunate truth is an injury, or perhaps even load management, will be beginning to rear its head. We’ll say the Suns go 1-2 here, the single win coming against the Raptors.

Record: 14-4

December 2023

The Suns have only 12 games this month, because a week has been assigned to finish out in-season tournament play. This team shouldn’t care about that, so we won’t include those games here. There is a delicious six game home stand to begin the month, with a chance to really build out what is looking like an impressive record.

The Warriors and Grizzlies come to town, but before that it is the defending champion Denver Nuggets in a marquee matchup. All things being equal, the Suns get some revenge here. The Knicks, Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards are in town, and when all is said and done, this looks like a 5-1 run (that loss will likely be the Nuggets or Warriors).

Leaving the comforts of home, and the Sacramento Kings could give the Suns problems. They are a good young group that is only getting better. Christmas Day against the Dallas Mavericks is huge, and with it being at home, the Suns will put on their best performance in what is generally accepted as the unofficial start of the season.

Three games, one away and two home, close out the calendar year, with the final game at home to the Orlando Magic an interesting one. They are going to cause more problems than many expect, and have the youth to run the Suns out of the gym. Paolo Banchero is playing some stellar ball with Team USA.

Franz Wagner is quickly becoming one of the most underrated players in the league. A Magic win in Arizona is far from guaranteed, but we need to be honest with ourselves here. With so many big games to get up for, the Suns are going to let games like this slip away from time to time. That is also perfectly acceptable over the course of 82 games when you’re trying to win a championship.

Record: 23-7

January 2024

This is all going extremely well for the Suns, and while some may think this is a best case scenario, the earlier portion of the schedule is soft in all of the right places to go on a bit of a run. Another four game home stand begins 2024, but this time, the team can only manage 2-2.

The Miami Heat and L.A. Clippers stealing wins, with the Portland Trail Blazers (who the Suns will have beaten for the third time at this point) and Grizzlies being put to the sword. A trip to Los Angeles to face the two franchises there may result in the nightlife getting in the way, although the team are there from January 8 – January 11.

The rest of this month gets tricky. Going to Portland and winning yet again seems likely, and the Kings will be beaten once they get to The Valley. But there are tough trips to face the New Orleans Pelicans, followed by two home games (the Indiana Pacers could be tricky), and then the longest road trip out East of the year, at seven games.

This is split across January and February, so we’ll only take the first five games. These include a trip down to Florida to face the Magic and Heat, and games at Dallas and the Pacers. Make no mistake, this is going to be hard, and the Suns could find themselves 2-3 after five games here.

When you factor the early time spent in Los Angeles, and even the tough home games against the Kings and Pacers, this looks like the most testing month to date. The record will begin to even itself out here, and an injury of any kind at this point could also make things a whole lost worse.

Record: 31-15

February 2024

This is the month of the All-Star game, and the Suns have some big games built around the midseason exhibition. The Milwaukee Bucks come to town on February 6, the first game back after that gruelling seven game series.

That will be a test of their character as much as anything, and the chance to get one over on the Bucks after what happened in 2021 is also appealing. The Suns won’t play more than two games at home or away in a row this month, in what will be on where they are coming and going.

The final couple of games do form part of a four game home stand, and six in seven in The Valley, to bring us from February into March, but there will be plenty to worry about before then. The Lakers and Kings will be in town, while there will be trips to face the Warriors and Mavericks.

If there is on saving grace here, it is that between February 23 – March 2, the Suns will play four games. Three of these will be against the Houston Rockets, two home and one away. At that point the hope is that they’ll have little to play for, and with many of their draft picks owed to other organizations through previous trades, they could be turned over easily.

The flip side of this however, is that the Rockets made a splash this offseason in signing Fred VanVleet, and alongside their young core, they could be closer to being competitive than we think. A bit like the Magic, this is a team that could get out and run, and cause the Suns a lot more problems than they realize.

Record: 38-19

March 2024

As fine a record as 38-19 to this point will be, the chances are the Nuggets and perhaps even a regular season darling that we don’t know yet (think the Kings last year) will be setting the pace. With games beginning to run out, March will be an important month in the hunt for home court through as much of the playoffs as possible.

Another four game trip out East will be tough, not least because the calibre of opponent is going to be much better than before. The Suns playing the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, Charlotte Hornets and Bucks during this run.

To make matters even more challenging, the Suns will play the Nuggets in Denver twice this month, and also have tilts against the Celtics and 76ers at home as well. On paper this looks to be the toughest month so far, with very few gimme games in amongst this murderers row of opponents.

The Suns do face the Spurs and Thunder twice more each this month, and there’s a game against the Rockets and Hornets in here too. But this is going to be difficult. If ever there was a period of time where a losing run could occur and panic could set in, you better believe it’ll be in March. If the Suns can perform well though, then they’ll surely enter the fast approaching playoffs as favorites.

Record: 48-24

April 2024

With only eight games remaining until the playoffs begin, the chances of the Suns surpassing 50 wins seems high. Interestingly though, for those who think this is a group who could easily push for 60 wins, that doesn’t seem likely.

The Suns face the Pelicans, Clippers and Timberwolves twice each, with one more game against the Cavaliers and Kings in there for good measure. None of these games will be easy, and there’s every chance a group like the Pelicans or Clippers will be fighting for their play-in lives.

Tempting as it may be to think the Suns could go 8-0 here as they ramp up to a long playoff run, it never goes that way. A couple of these teams are good enough to catch the Suns, home or away, and inflict on them a few more losses before the postseason begins. We’ve mentioned the Pelicans already, but what about the Clippers?

We’ve never seen it before, but they could have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard fully healthy and playing the best ball of their time together. Similarly, Zion Williamson might be about to place highly in MVP voting after a stellar campaign with the Pelicans. If all of this sounds too good to be true, then you need to apply that same logic to the Suns.

On paper they’re among the best teams that there are in 2023-24, but Durant has had injury issues for the last number of years and we don’t know what Beal is going to look like here. Finally, with this only being 80 games accounted for (the other two are TBC because of the in-season tournament), we’ll take those last two and split them. It seems only fair.

Record: 54-28