Would you rather keep Chris Paul or DeAndre Ayton with the Suns?

Despite Game 3 of the NBA Finals taking place on Monday, the Phoenix Suns somehow managed to make the day all about themselves, with the news breaking that they planned on waiving Chris Paul. A move that seemingly came out of nowhere and was first reported by Chris Haynes of Bleacher Report, before the discourse then took another turn.

Both Shams Charania of The Athletic and Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN added additional layers to the story, with the future of Paul still largely up in the air. He may be waived altogether, or possibly stretched to save the Suns even more money. He could even return to the organization. Either way, we have not reached the conclusion of this one.

Nestled in amongst the Paul news, there was a potentially huge piece of information regarding center DeAndre Ayton, and his own future with the franchise.

New head coach Frank Vogel said all of the right things in his introductory press conference about believing Ayton could return to his All-Star level of productivity from before. But according to Woj, the Suns are still exploring avenues where Ayton gets traded, and if that means Paul can return and the team has a much healthier cap sheet, or indeed both players end up elsewhere.

Paul on his part is keen to return to the organization, and rightly so. They represent one of his best chances league wide to win a championship. We have yet to really seen how good Devin Booker and Kevin Durant can be leading this group. It is unclear how Ayton feels about being in Arizona, although we do know he has signed an offer sheet to play with the Indiana Pacers before.

But if the Suns choose to only bring one of these two back as the third best player on their team, who should they pick? There are merits to both, and the contractual situations of the two play a bigger part than ever in making that decision. Owner Mat Ishbia has already shown a willingness to be aggressive to win, so let us examine the case for keeping one of Paul or Ayton.

Would you rather keep Chris Paul or DeAndre Ayton with the Suns?

2. The case for keeping Chris Paul

Paul’s main advantage at this point is what it would do for the Suns financially if he came back over Ayton. He is going to be waived, and that means that the organization will only have to pay him $15.8 million of the $30.8 million owed to him this season. Unfortunately for the Suns, this would still appear on their cap sheet for 2023-24.

Waiving and stretching the deal over five years to eat the salary in $3 million chunks is much more like it for the team, but in this instance Paul is then not allowed come back on a different deal. To be clear, this option is still very much on the table, and it would allow the Suns to go after a higher level of free agent this summer.

But if we stick with the waive and return theory, the Suns can still add some sort of depth to their rotation, and address their key need which is on the wing. In doing so, they get to keep a future Hall of Fame player, and one of the smartest players in the league. The idea of Paul teeing up Durant and Booker each night is likely part of the reason Durant wanted to join to begin with.

At 38-years-old, there is no doubt Paul slipped some last season, mostly because of injuries. This is the main risk associated with bringing him back. It is entirely possible he can’t remain healthy anymore when it really matters, which already happened this year when he failed to play a single minute against the Denver Nuggets in their second round matchup.

In the regular season he only managed 59 games, all starts, but was right there each night giving the Suns 13.9 points and 8.9 assists. The other big factor going in Paul’s favor, is that the Suns would really struggle to adequately replace him if he was to be waived. Even if the contract was also stretched.

The Suns can’t keep Ayton (which in this scenario they are doing if Paul is gone), add meaningful wing depth and bring in an above average point guard. There just is not enough money to go around. The idea of Cam Payne running the show then is far less appealing, and is likely not the running mate Durant had in mind when he joined.

Would you rather keep Chris Paul or DeAndre Ayton with the Suns?

1. The case for keeping DeAndre Ayton

The argument for Paul might be compelling, but Ayton’s case is also pretty strong. To start with he is a whopping 14 years younger than his current teammate, and in theory has not yet even entered his prime. On the defensive end coach Vogel is going to work wonders with him, and he can absolutely be the lynchpin in a top five defense next season. The Suns already expect it.

The last five winners of the regular season MVP award have all been centers, and although Ayton won’t be winning that award himself, he is the player who is going to be tasked with slowing them down. Durant can certainly help, but the idea is to keep him as fresh as possible so as to be an offensive terror, and this duel impact of the two is something Paul could never even attempt.

The league has trended back towards dominant big men in general, and players with Ayton’s ability at his height are not easily found. On the other end of the spectrum however, and run of the mill point guards are now a dime a dozen in the league. As already mentioned, the Suns need more than that to replace Paul, but he is an easier fix than that of a championship calibre big man.

The clincher for Ayton though, comes in the fact he still has some sort of trade value. It is not as high as the organization would like it to be, and at over $30 million for the next three seasons, that will be even harder to move once the new CBA takes hold this offseason. But as we have now clearly seen with Paul, he had no trade value at all on his current deal.

From a purely business perspective, it makes more sense to have a young player under contract for three more seasons, and who could get you some kind of meaningful depth in any potential trades. Not that many suitors currently exist, but teams who are not where they’d like to be will always talk themselves into a player like Ayton.

Keeping an older, smaller player in Paul who could only move to a handful of true contenders even if he was on a smaller deal just doesn’t make sense. The Suns can keep Ayton, and hope he develops into the player they need him to be. Even if he doesn’t, they’ll be able to move him at a time when Paul will probably be retired. He also helps them win now. Tough to argue against that.