We have seen enough basketball this season to know a few things that will happen in the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns’ second-round Western Conference playoff series. We also know that sometimes anything can happen in the playoffs, so we explore both.
Phoenix and Denver played four times during the regular season, with each team winning twice. Of course, the teams that first played on Christmas Day 2022 are not the same teams squaring off this Saturday at Ball Arena in downtown Denver. Nor are they the same two teams that faced twice in the last two weeks of the regular season. Sure, the Suns won in late March and early April, but two-time and reigning League MVP Nikola Jokic did not participate. Regardless, we know some things that will happen and have some ideas of what might happen.
Series Assurance 1 – Jokic will fill the box score
Averaging less than half an assist short of a triple-double on the season, one thing you can take to the bank in this series is that the MVP will have at least one triple-double. After notching 29 triple-doubles in the regular season and two in his first five games this post-season, the idea that the Joker does not have an evening hitting double figures in points, rebounds, and assists is asinine.
This is one facet of statistics that Jokic dominates, getting more than twice as many as Domantas Sabonis, who had the second most in the league at 14. Further, Joker had 29 triple-doubles in 69 games, one every 2.4 games. Sabonis managed his 14 over 79 games, averaging one every 5.6 games.
Knowing the series must go at least four games, you can almost bet the farm on the idea that Jokic has at least one if not two, triple-doubles in the series.
Series Possibility 1 – Someone else will reach the statistical feat
During the regular season, 38 players combined to produce 119 triple-doubles and three of the players who contributed 31 are on the court. Of course, knowing Jokic had 29 of those 31 means that Kevin Durant and Jamal Murray had only one each during the regular season.
With only two players contributing two triple-doubles over a combined 112 games played for those two, it seems unlikely that someone other than Joker will reach the milestone. However, the playoffs are a different brand of basketball, with higher minutes for the stars, making larger boxscore numbers a legitimate possibility. In fact, in the last game of the first round, Devin Booker – who did not have a triple-double during the regular season – came just a couple of rebounds short in his superlative closeout performance.
The point is, Joker is not the only player in this series that can fill up the box score, and we should not be surprised if any of Murray, Durant, or Booker have a triple-double themselves. Don’t bet the farm on that one, but do not be surprised if it happens.
One thing that the Nuggest Suns series does not lack is star power and high-volume scorers. When you consider the two-time reigning League MVP as the fourth-best scorer in the series, we should expect a lot of points, especially from the Suns’ two superstars.
Series Assurance 2 – Durant and Booker will average more than 60 points combined in the series
Although they did not play together as much as anyone would have liked, Booker (27.8) and Durant (29.1) averaged 56.9 points per game during the regular season. However, with the increased minutes and usage in the first round, the players averaged 65.6 points per night.
D-Book took the big jump, increasing almost 10 points per night to 37.2, while Durant hovered in place, with his average dropping down almost a point to 28.4 against the Clippers. It is unrealistic that Booker will continue to average over 37 points per game, although his increased minutes and volume should keep him over 30.
Likewise, Durant seems able to score whenever he wants, and he senses the Suns need it. With Denver tightening their defense and Monty Williams tightening his rotation, Phoenix will need that bit more from Durant, so do not be surprised if he averages more than 30 per game in the series.
With Durant and D-Book playing at a high level, 60 points per night is more or less a given.
Series Possibility 2 – Durant and Booker will average more than 70 combined points per game
Notwithstanding that the idea of Booker keeping his average over 37 points per game is unrealistic, given Booker’s current form and fire, anything is possible.
In reality, Booker and Durant combined for those 65.6 points per game against the Clippers, and Durant did not play that well. He shot okay and was smart with the basketball, but his play was far from the smooth, ultra-efficient play for which the Slim Reaper is renowned. As Durant gets further into game shape – he missed most of the last two months of the season – we should expect his game to follow suit.
Even better for the Suns is that as Durant’s game elevates, it creates more space and more opportunity for Booker to do his thing and vice versa. As a scoring machine, Booker and Durant can be a self-feeding engine, where one scoring, the other gets more chances. As a result, we should not be surprised to see them score a combined 70 a couple of times in the series – they did it X times against the Clippers – and maybe even average it.
We should expect a ton of points in the paint during this match-up. Both teams have players that like to attack the rim and play above it, especially Aaron Gordon.
Assurance 3 – Aaron Gordon will have at least a dozen dunks in the series
During the regular season, Aaron Gordon was a dunking machine, finishing fifth in the Association with 179 dunks in 68 games, averaging 2.6 per contest. Seeing Gordon get a dozen dunks seems almost guaranteed with a series that will likely go at least five games.
Barring injury, this is another assurance you can bet the farm on because Aaron Gordon is a dunking machine, and the Suns do not have anyone to stop him. On Christmas day, when the two teams met, Gordon had seven dunks, including what many considered the dunk of the year, giving Landry Shamet a wonderful Christman poster.
While Suns fans will be hoping Shamet does not get a chance to be posterized again in the series, the reality is, no matter who is on the floor, Gordon will be throwing it down on a Suns team that is a bit thin in the front court.
Possibility 3 – Booker and Ayton may get more dunks than Gordon
On the surface, this is a long shot; combined, Booker (20) and DeAndre Ayton (110) had only 130 dunks combining for 2.41 dunks per regular season game. Then again, with the increased minutes and, more importantly, Booker’s increasing aggression driving toward the rack, Ayton and Booker getting 3-4 dunks per game in the series is not outlandish.
In the first round, Gordon had 11 dunks in five games against a stout Timberwolves interior, whereas Ayton and Booker combined 13 dunks against the Clippers. We should expect Gordon’s numbers to go up, given his history against the Suns, but do not be surprised if the aggression from Booker and DA matches Gordon’s dunk-for-dunk.
This is the NBA, and it is the playoffs, so it is important to remember there are actually three sides to the triangle that is a playoff game the home team, the away team, and the referees. We all have seen enough basketball to know that the officials will have a role to play, and two, in particular, will have their say.
Assurance 4: Scott Foster and Joey Crawford will ref at least one game each
The free throw disparity the Suns have faced this season is something everyone knows about; Coach Williams has worked to ensure that is the case. However, in some games, that disparity is much worse than others, and we know from experience that when we see Foster and Crawford, we are likely in for a long night.
In the perfect world, we will get the two whistle-warriors together on the same night – as we did in round one – it will likely only cost the Suns one game. However, if the League wants to push Jokic as a star, we could see the pair across two or even three games if they are separated.
While the addition of Durant does change the math slightly regarding the algorithm of NBA officiating, one wonders if the hatred of CP3 is a bigger negative than the Durant positive. We have to hope that win or lose, the whistle goes both ways; we know if Foster and Crawford are blowing, it is unlikely.
Possibility 4: The referees are a non-factor in the series
Okay, this is laughable, given the history of the NBA and the history of the Suns. However, maybe, after 55 years of suffering and getting the rug pulled out from under them, the referees can not take center stage, and the players decide the series. This is the playoffs when we want to see the best basketball, and a parade at the free throw line is not it.
The idea that we can go through the whole series with neither team having to feel slighted is likely too much to ask of the NBA, but it is something we can hope for. Of course, if you watch Ted Lasso, you know the hope will kill you, and as Suns fans, hopefully, we’ve all already died enough.