3 Factors to Dictate how the Suns will Function without Chris Paul

During their final game before the All-Star break, which resulted in a 124-121 win over the Houston Rockets, the Phoenix Suns saw their leader Chris Paul fall victim to the injury bug once again.

While trying to whip the ball into the paint at Deandre Ayton, his arms collided with Jae’Sean Tate’s, forcing him to lunge back in pain, and forcing all Phoenix fans to hold their breaths.

The lacking news on the severity of Paul’s injury in the days following only led to more anxiety for everyone in the Valley, which of course reached a tipping point after CP3 arrived at All-Star weekend with a brace around his right hand.

By Sunday evening, everyone learned that Paul was diagnosed with a right thumb avulsion, threatening to keep him out for six to eight weeks.

Phoenix currently sits atop the NBA with a 48-10 record, also with a 6.5 game cushion between them and the second place Golden State Warriors. Phoenix also possesses the sixth easiest schedule going forward according to Tankathon.com, with their remaining opponents sporting a collective .486 win percentage.

In that, the Utah Jazz (twice), Milwaukee Bucks, Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, Denver Nuggets, Philadelphia Sixers, Golden State Warriors, and Memphis Grizzlies represent their toughest remaining opponents. All of those contests are on the road minus the bout with Philadelphia, as are 14 of their final 24 games.

But now with some clarity regarding Paul’s health, as disappointing as it may be, the Suns need to implement a new plan of attack as they move forward through this stretch while getting a taste of life without the Point God.

Phoenix Suns Life Without Chris Paul: Players to Watch

You cannot just recreate Chris Paul out of thin air. He remains a one of a kind player even at 36-years-old. This truth leaves Monty Williams and the Suns with no choice but to lean a bit more on their other players from here on out.

Devin Booker

After Paul went back to the locker room during Wednesday’s win vs the Rockets, “Point Book” made a reappearance.

The All-Star shooting guard registered 15 points, five assists, and two turnovers in 21 minutes left to play after Paul exited. He finished the contest at +9 and helped Phoenix overcome a 67-59 halftime deficit.

Going forward, expect Booker to continue getting more touches each game and relish the opportunity, as he reassumes that primary creator role which he spent his early days on the Suns fulfilling.

So far this season, Booker finds himself averaging 4.5 assists per game, but again, that was mainly with Paul on the floor. But now without his partner in crime, watch for Booker to hover north of the six assists per game mark, as this top flight offense begins to shape-shift around his talents.

From a scoring standpoint, Booker currently averages at 25.5 points per game. Playing with the utmost confidence, he also finds himself averaging a career-high 20.8 field goal attempts per game.

Those numbers naturally promise to increase with Paul gone as well. I expect Booker to establish an early rhythm and flow for the style of play he will have to exude in taking the reins away from Paul, eventually pushing his scoring numbers for the year into career-high territory. Doing so might also further his MVP argument, which remains something to keep an eye on.

From an efficiency standpoint though, Booker’s shooting splits have hit a snag over the past few weeks, in large part due to his team’s backcourt injuries which forced Monty to play him extra minutes.

After two weeks into a rotation without Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne, fatigue clearly caught up to Booker. The All-Star break could not have come at a better time for him, as it should serve as the perfect refresher for him to come back with a clear conscience in the role he’ll be playing for the next two months.

Mikal Bridges

The Warden has averaged 19.4 points per game over his last 11 contests while posting highly efficient .615/.340/.833 shooting splits. His ability to hit self-created shots has helped boost those numbers more than anything else.

Bridges typically earns his points by attacking defenses that are not yet set or late on their rotations, but more recently, he’s been able to pick out and abuse his matchups in the half court as well.

Prior to the aforementioned 11-game stretch, Bridges averaged 2.1 points on 2.3 pull-up jumpers per game, shooting at a 45.2 percent clip. But on this 11-game ride, he’s up to 2.9 points on 2.6 pull-up attempts per game, shooting at a 55.2 percent clip.

His rim finishing over that period has been near perfect as well, going 32-34 on shots right around the cylinder. He also finds himself shooting a smoking hot 68.0 percent from the midrange.

Having also scored 18+ points in four straight games, Bridges has the longest streak of his career by those parameters. He just keeps finding easy ways to score, often coming around off-ball screens and either pulling up or getting to his spots in the midrange to convert.

The pace at which Bridges plays at within the half court indicates that:

• He’s reestablished his touch and feel within the Suns offensive sets
• He’s acquired the prerequisite comfort in self-creation needed to function with confidence and consistency
• His previously dislocated right pinky is feeling a whole lot better, or he’s at least grown comfortable with it.

Whether or not this is true third option level play remains to be seen, but Bridges’s growth on the attack and his realization of that growth are both here to stay. In all of this, the touch on his turnarounds, especially over his right shoulder, has been exquisite, even becoming a staple in the Phoenix offense.

As per usual, Bridges also continues to burn teams while road running in transition. Even his game in that entity has grown nuanced however, as he has a feel for when to duck out to the corner for a triple, or seal early in transition for hit ahead layups as he pins opposing guards under the basket.

Oh yeah, and Bridges still remains an absolute menace at the floor’s opposite end, looking more and more like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate each day.

Bridges’s ability to maintain that defensive effectiveness even while improving other parts of his game makes him a unique talent with a high-game IQ, both of which promise to help the Suns stay afloat without Paul.

Deandre Ayton

Deandre Ayton earning an opportunity to prove to the world that he can function at a high level without Chris Paul on the floor might be the greatest silver lining stemming from this whole situation.

In doing so, he needs to throw out the “old reliable” dynamic of pick-and-roll offense and instead focus on his own abilities to create shots while dialing up his aggression.

First and foremost, I expect to see more assertiveness and consistency on his touches, setting a tone for what might come in the playoffs, and potentially even beyond (amazing that there’s still ambiguity about his future with this franchise).

Ayton possessing the highest field goal percentage of all big men from the short midrange area indicates how assertive and sure of himself he’s been already this year. From that zone, Ayton shoots it at a 65.0 percent rate on the second highest volume of attempts compared to his fellow centers.

Paul being out opens the door for him to build on that and re-establish “DominAyton,” who is the proverbial pit bull on a chain as displayed in his pregame antics with JaVale McGee.

I want to see Ayton average north of 18 points and 11 rebounds during this period without Paul. His blocks and steals feel destined for an uptick as well based on what Ayton has said about his defensive ideals in the past.

Ayton already does the little things well at the defensive end. He always positions himself to challenge shots and bother even smaller guards off the dribble, even if not always coming away with a block or steal.

But if Ayton can begin to do that extra stuff, such as coming away with those steals and blocks, that will set him up to impress even more, as his entire game hopefully snowballs into the playoffs.

Phoenix Suns Life Without Chris Paul: The Backup PG “Problem”

The spotlight shining on the point guard position poises to burn even brighter now with Paul out. The backup spot remains Cameron Payne’s to lose, but seemingly eager to usurp him in the rotation one can find the recently acquired Aaron Holiday, whose bouncy energy has been a key component since Phoenix traded for him.

Holiday’s plus/minus sits at an intriguing +5 through three games, getting minutes with the Suns both ahead and behind. But regardless of the game situation, he shoots 66.7 percent from deep on two attempts each night, dishing out 2.7 assists per game as well.

The former Pacer knows how to get after it also on defense, picking up his assignments at full court from time to time. He also does well with his positioning, never letting his man get between him and the rim.

Payne’s sporadic play that’s occurred for the lion share of his 2021-22 campaign must cease down this homestretch of the season, as the team needs him now more than ever. This healthy “competition” provided by Holiday should bring the best out of each player though, allowing the Suns to still go full throttle even with CP3 out of commission.

Phoenix Suns Life Without Chris Paul: The Twin Tandem

The Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson tandem, frequently referred to as the “twins” due to their similarities in play style, will be vital in preserving Phoenix’s winning efforts minus Paul. I’ve spoken at length about the former, but the latter of this duo is now presented with an opportunity to showcase his readiness to handle more pressure in self-creation.

Aside from his elite spot up 3-point shooting, Johnson has been far more involved as a mobile floor spacer, mainly by lifting and sinking to create cleaner passing angles that free himself up for better quality looks, relocating after passes, and getting out in transition to fill lanes with pace.

On the fast break, his scoring and foul-drawing tendencies have both increased since his last season. Johnson also finds himself generating more rim pressure this year, along with a sense of flair and creativity while doing so.

But Johnson does this all in the half court almost as often. The former Tar Heel strategically attacks closeouts and has a feel for slipping screens and then making plays from the short roll area of the floor. In that, he’s put up 76 shots at the rim this year,  already tying his total from last year and with a conversion rate that has him in the 91st percentile amongst forwards.

The importance of Johnson’s growth cannot be overstated, as Phoenix’s main struggles during the NBA Finals last year dealt with their lacking creation outside of Paul and Booker, who Milwaukee focused their entire defensive game plan on.

So between Johnson’s improvements and the aforementioned growth displayed by Bridges, one can feel safe in asking them to shoulder some of the load with Paul gone.

Lineups featuring these two currently rank in the 96th percentile for efficiency differential, largely thanks to each player’s smart play styles. The aforementioned screen intelligence, playmaking out of slips, ghosting to the short roll, cutting catalog Bridges puts on display nearly every possession, and shooter’s IQ from Johnson—they all add up to a functioning offense even after a set fails.

These dynamics of the Suns rotation will be relied upon exclusively with Paul stuck wearing street clothes for some time, as they ramp back up for action down the stretch and blaze toward the postseason.