The Phoenix Suns will miss the postseason for the 10th straight season. What move can they make this off-season that will make them a playoff team in 2021?
The Phoenix Suns are all but guaranteed to miss the postseason for the 10th straight season. While they have made strides in 2019-20, they seem to still be at least one piece away from being a playoff team in the Western Conference.
As we hover in NBA (and general life) purgatory at this moment, as Suns fans, it is hard not to spend time looking ahead to this off-season and who the Phoenix Suns may be able to acquire through the NBA Draft, free agency or through trade in order to build upon a roster that projected to have an 83% increase in wins from the 2018-19 season to the 2019-20 season.
The Phoenix Suns won 18 games in 2018-19 and through 65 games this season, they were 26-39. That is a .400 winning percentage, which trended out for the remaining games would equate to seven more wins (technically 6.8) and a 33-49 record.
To put that in perspective, only two NBA teams were projected to see a higher overall win total increase this season: the Los Angeles Lakers and the Dallas Mavericks. No NBA team was projected to see a higher win total percentage increase than the Suns.
With that being said, it seems apparent that the Phoenix Suns are likely one more valuable addition away from vaulting into the 40 win range and playoff territory in 2020-21.
Who could that addition be? Here are a few options…
Obi Toppin
Toppin is truly a remarkable story. He is a late bloomer that wasn’t highly recruited and opted to attend Mt. Zion Prep School in Maryland out of high school. Then, he grew an incredible six inches and filled out into his current impressive 6’9″, 220 lb. frame.
He is an older NBA draft prospect, a 22-year-old redshirt sophomore, but that sort of physical, mental and emotional maturity, combined with an ability to instantly contribute is exactly the sort of player James Jones is looking for in the NBA Draft (see: Cam Johnson).
Toppin is an AP First-Team All-American and the star player of one of the five best college teams in the nation this season with the Dayton Flyers.
Per Sports Reference, Toppin averaged 20 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.2 blocks on 63 percent shooting from the field, 39 percent shooting from 3-point range and 70 percent shooting from the free-throw line this season.
According to John Hollinger of ESPN, Toppin had the fifth-highest PER (player efficiency rating) in the nation at 33.01.
This NBA Draft Junkies profile does an analytic dive into his offensive strengths.
NBA Draft Room even compared Toppin to (wait for it…) Amar’e Stoudemire!
The Suns are currently slated to have the 10th highest draft odds in the lottery, so there is a good chance that he could be gone by the time they pick. For my money though, in what could possibly be the weakest NBA Draft class since 2000 (please take some time to analyze just how bad that class was… except you Jamal Crawford!), Toppin may be the best player who could come in and fill a need for the Phoenix Suns at the power forward position.
Aaron Gordon
Speaking of highly athletic power forwards who have the ability or potential to play both ends and stretch the floor a little (are you sensing a theme here?), one player who it appears could be had through trade is Aaron Gordon.
There has been some reported interest from the Suns in acquiring Gordon as Shams Charania of The Vertical reported earlier this month that the Suns made a push for Gordon at the trade deadline.
Gordon was most definitely in the midst of a down year, averaging 14.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists on poor 43.3%/30.1%/67.9% shooting. He also was robbed of the dunk contest championship for the second time (he is the best dunk contest performer of all-time in my opinion, feel free to argue me).
He also will only be 25 when next season starts and sorely needs a change of scenery. The Magic have had an obsession with acquiring way too many frontcourt players over the past four years (Bismack Biyombo, Jonathan Isaac, Al-Farouq Aminu, etc.) and Gordon has had to play out of position at the three.
Gordon is capable of being a plus defender who can defend three positions while averaging 18/9/3 on 46%/35%/70% shooting and that would instantly make the Suns a true playoff contender.
According to Shams, the Suns offered Tyler Johnson and Cam Johnson at the deadline and the Magic wanted Kelly Oubre. If I am the Suns (while likely unpopular) I pull the trigger on that deal this off-season.
Gordon is due around $34.5 million over the next two seasons.
Lauri Markkanen
Admittedly, this breaks the mold a bit from the freakishly athletic and active power forward mold, and this move would require Deandre Ayton to continue his ascension into becoming a B+ or A- defender for 30 minutes a night, but Markkanen has the highest ceiling of the group in my opinion.
There are definite red flags. For starters, he has only played in a possible 170 of 229 games through three seasons with a laundry list of ailments: hip, elbow, ankle, etc. Durability is a concern, although it doesn’t seem like the hip or elbow issue would be chronic. He also struggled out of the gate this season and at times, seems to lack full effort and confidence.
When he does have it going though, he is special. Look at his numbers last season at the age of 21:
18.7 points, 9 rebounds, 1.4 assists on 43%/36%/87% shooting.
Here are two comparative seasons from former NBA players:
Player A: Age 21: 17.5 Points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists on 46%/38%/83% shooting
Player B: Age 23: 16.1 Points, 7.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists on 44%/38%/87% shooting
Player A is Dirk Nowitzki in his 2nd season in 1999-2000 and Player B is Ryan Anderson in his fourth season in 2011-12.
Markkanen falls somewhere between those two players, of course, but he is stronger and more athletic than both. He will never be able to be a number one option like Dirk, but if he is surrounded by a potentially elite center in Deandre Ayton to open up the floor, an elite scorer and above-average passer in Devin Booker, and an elite floor general like Ricky Rubio, the open looks will come in abundance.
Who is to say he can’t be a 20-10-2 guy on 46%/40%/90% in a couple of years and a league-average defender? That is an All-Star on a playoff team in many years.
The Bulls are likely frustrated with Markkanen after his injuries and regression this season and would like consider an offer of an athletic and aggressive wing like Kelly Oubre for Markkanen and Christiano Felicio, who is on the final year of his contract (for salary matching purposes).
Other Options
There are a few names that will likely be free agents this summer that I did not include on this list for different reasons: Danilo Gallinari and Jerami Grant
Gallinari was fantastic this year for one of the biggest feel-good stories in the league in the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he will be 32 when next season starts and has always had durability issues. He also will be one of the hottest commodities in an underwhelming (that is putting it lightly) free agency crop and may command $20 mill+ for multiple years.
Grant would be a good addition, as a 26-year-old two-way athletic freak entering his prime (especially considering he shot 40% from three this season), but all indications point to the Nuggets bringing him back and letting 35-year-old Paul Millsap walk this off-season.
This is from Mike Singer of the Denver Post on January 31:
"“Do the Nuggets trust Grant to be their power forward of the future as was suggested at his introductory press conference? He is undersized for that position, but adds several components that Millsap can’t bring, like agility and shot blocking. My guess is that Grant will decline his player option and the Nuggets will do their best to re-sign him.”"
The Suns feel like a talented young power forward (and a legitimate backup point guard) away from bringing playoff basketball back to the Valley for the first time since Amar’e Stoudemire graced a Suns uniform in 2010.
They may need to be willing to trade the original “Valley Boy” Kelly Oubre to do it, though.