Phoenix Suns second-year center Deandre Ayton recently stated that he is going to shoot 3’s this coming season. For those who question this philosophy, wake up: this is 2019 and he should shoot as many as he’d like.
Before 2018, the Phoenix Suns had never had the first overall pick.
Before Deandre Ayton, the Phoenix Suns had never had a franchise center.
And before 2019, the Phoenix Suns had never had a franchise center who could shoot the 3.
Sure, Channing Frye played center and he shot – and made – a ton of 3-pointers in his career with the Suns, so it’s not like franchise has never had a stretch-five before.
But Frye wasn’t a franchise player. He was pretty good for a couple of years, but he was never going to be built around the way Phoenix is building around Ayton.
Having been selected first overall over Luka Doncic, Ayton has an expectation to be a star that was levied upon Frye.
With that heightened expectation, Ayton will not only be asked, but will push himself, to become one of the most dominant centers in the league.
Yet, while he and others compared himself to Shaquille O’Neal prior to his draft selection (and no one would be upset in anyway if he actually did end up being dominant in that way), this is 2019, not 1993, and it goes without being said that this is not the same NBA that Shaq was playing in in his own second year.
Consider this for irony: in 1993-94, the Houston Rockets led the league in 3-point attempts at 1,285. Coincidentally the Magic were second at 1,137 and the Phoenix Suns third with 1,042.
Shaq attempted a whopping 2, making zero.
Last season, the Houston Rockets once again led the league in 3-point attempts.
This time they shot 3,721.
They made, 1,323 – 186 more then the franchise attempted back in 1993-94.
Oh, and the San Antonio Spurs shot the fewest number of 3’s last season, attempting 2,071 (yet leading the league in percentage at 39.2%).
But while the Houston Rockets do not have a traditional center shooting 3’s, the Milwaukee Bucks, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Philadelphia 76ers do, each to varying results, and each a worthy comparison for the Suns’ own young and rising star.
Joel Embiid opened his rookie year nailing 36.7% of his 3-point attempts, before dropping to 30.8% and 30.0% the last two seasons.
While I do not watch enough 76ers basketball to generally figure out what the problem is, his attempting 4.1 per game (as he did in 2018-19) while only making 30.0%, is not something I am sure the franchise is too excited about.
Then again, Ben Simmons cannot hit an outside shot either, so maybe it is more than just the players themselves.
The Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic sports a career-average 34.5% from beyond the arc in his four seasons, and while he made 39.6% of his outside shots two seasons ago, something happened to him last season as well when his average dropped to a paltry 30.7%, a rate that again (on 3.4 attempts per game), his own franchise cannot be too excited about.
For those two players in particular, though, while they have not been able to maintain a spectacular shooting percentage, the fact that they are both attempting those shots and have been able to make them at a legitimate clip, they will now and forever require a defender to follow them outside, opening up the lane and the paint for drivers to slash through without the fear of too many big bodies getting the way.
So while their respective teams would actually prefer them to make their shots if they are going to take them – based on the two team’s regular season records last season, obviously something is going well with each team’s offense regardless of their center’s current shooting struggles.
A few centers do find tremendous success from the outside
The creme of the crop stretch-fives though are truly great at their craft, and if Deandre Ayton can actually make it to their level of outside proficiency – watch out.
Last season, former 3-point shooting brick layer Brook Lopez led the Milwaukee Bucks in both 3-pointers made and attempted, totaling 187-512. While his impressive 36.5% from outside did not lead the team, he did finish fourth behind only Malcolm Brogdon, Tony Snell, and Khris Middleton.
The gem of all outside shooting centers, however, is of course Karl-Anthony Towns, who not only led the Minnesota Timberwolves in makes and attempts (142-355) in 2018-19, but also percentage at 40.0%.
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Dario Saric finished third for the ‘Wolves in the shooting categories, and second behind Towns draining 38.3%.
Of the four stretch-fives mentioned, only Towns’ Timberwolves had a losing record – although there is also no doubt that from top-to-bottom, Minnesota also had the weakest roster of the four, so his individual play (and certainly his shooting), are hardly to blame.
The question of who might Deandre Ayton potentially fall closest to in individual shooting statistics is, at this point, largely left up to speculation.
There really has been no media reporting on how hard his has been working on his outside shot and whether or not his statement came from a place of cockiness, or confidence.
We do not yet know if it truly was a guarantee based on a combination of his efforts and his new head coach’s blessing.
Any great expectations, however, should be tempered at least, as it is not like Ayton also has a vast 3-point shooting experience. While he only took a total of four last season (making none), he only attempted 35 in 35 games for the University of Arizona, making 12.
Sure, his college numbers show that he can shoot from the outside in a game setting, but it does not in-and-of-itself mean that he should actually attempt to become a more prolific outside shooter.
So, why shouldn’t Ayton?
Deandre Ayton should absolutely shoot 3’s this coming season, whether he drains them at a Karl-Anthony Towns-like rate, or not.
Odds are, of course, he will not make 3’s at a 40.0% clip right out of the gates of his career (after a slow rookie start, of course), but even if he made and attempted 3’s the way Joel Embiid does (1 make per game at 30.0% of attempts), by having this shot in his arsenal, he will only force defenses to come out on him and respect that that shot can go in.
That said, let’s just say that for the sake of argument he at least attempted 3’s at the rate of Towns, shooting 4.6 per game and about 377 a year.
It’s not like Towns never spends any time in the post. Only 27.0% of his shot attempts came from beyond the arc last season, while 58.6% were from 10 feet and in.
Phoenix Suns
Towns still attempted 12.5 2-point field goals per game, and averaged only 5.4 of his 24.4 points per game from 3.
And don’t worry: Rubio will still find a way to get plenty of alley-oops up Ayton’s way.
The same (or similar) would undoubtedly occur for Ayton, with the majority of his baskets coming from around the hoop, only stretching out when a particular play was called for such an shot attempt to occur.
Guaranteeing his stretching himself to becoming a 3-point shooter too may be both advantageous for both his legs and his defense.
One would have to image that the majority of his 3-point shots would actually not occur on an offensive set but rather out of a fastbreak opportunity where he is likely to lag a little behind the speedster guards Devin Booker and Ricky Rubio.
Then, in those instances when they find that their expected fastbreak lanes have been closed down, the new arrival Ayton can hang out up top waiting for a dish and quick and open shot.
By becoming a 3-point shooter, Ayton thus would not have to force his way all the way to beneath the hoop on every fastbreak, not only potentially clogging the lane, but saving some steps should he get down there, only to have a shot attempted by a teammate (whether missed or made), then have to trudge all the way up to get back on defense.
The presumption is that under new head coach Monty Williams, Deandre Ayton is going to become even more of an offensive focal point than he was at any point his rookie season. If he is, fans should expect to see some downright awesome statistics, the kind that we may have never seen from a center in franchise-history.
In the modern NBA, centers are beginning to take outside shots at clips that would make the centers of the past blush. And as one of the more athletic and capable young bigs in the league, there is no reason to believe that Ayton couldn’t, so therefore, should.