The Phoenix Suns are surely going to look into a power forward this offseason and one name that has appeared on their radar is Tobias Harris. Recent news of Jimmy Butler being offered a max contract extension might give the Suns an in to snag the soon-to-be-27-year-old power forward.
Of the two holes that the Phoenix Suns have on their roster, the importance of the resolution at power forward pales in comparison to point guard.
However, both do need an upgrade in a major way if the Suns are ultimately going to be competitive this coming season.
The biggest fish in the second-tier of potential free agents at any position this offseason is Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris‘ current teammate, with reports now circulating that the Philadelphia 76ers are prepared to offer the 29-year-old a max contract extension (although apparently there is still currently doubt over whether or not they will go as far as the full five years, or stop at four).
Butler can officially begin negotiations on that max contract beginning July 1, when unrestricted free agency kick in. Such a contract offer will pay him an average of $38 million a year (although obviously tiered up each season of the deal).
While Tobias Harris does not figure to receive a max contract offer from anywhere, he is all but certain to earn a deal that will pay him somewhere along the lines of $20 million a season on average, meaning that between those two players alone, Philadelphia will owe approx. $60 million a year beginning in 2019-20.
Further complicating the 76ers’ salary cap future is Joel Embiid‘s own max extension kicking in this season and Ben Simmons‘ max (presumably) beginning the following year.
That is a whoooooole lot of money beginning in 2020-21 for only four players, and for a core roster who has yet to make it beyond the Eastern Conference semifinals as of yet.
A lot has been made recently about Julius Randle being potentially interested in the Phoenix Suns and they in him. I have written about how he would definitely be an excellent grab if he could be had as he too is on the free agent market.
Age matters, but…
A key piece in a potential debate between Randle and Harris is that Randle is over two years younger than Harris, which is probably a very big selling point for James Jones and the Suns’ executive staff as they look to build a roster who will not only begin to compete right away, but contend for many years to come.
Statistically though, they are remarkably similar.
Phoenix Suns
Randle edged Harris in both scoring, rebounds, and assists at 21.4 to 20.0 points per game, 8.7 to 7.9 rebounds per game, and 3.1 to 2.8 assists per game, respectively.
The gap between the two statistically widens even more when placing a per-36min lens on the two as Harris averaged 4.1 more minutes per game than Randle.
However, while individual season-long averages are highly variable depending on system, role, and surrounding talent, Randle only last season added a 3-point shot averaging 34.4% on 2.7 attempts per game after previously averaging just 25.7% on 0.6 attempts per game his first four seasons.
Tobias Harris, on the other hand, has been a legitimate stretch-four for the last five years, averaging an insane 39.7% on 4.8 attempts last season (43.4% on 4.7 attempts in 55 games with the L.A. Clippers prior to his deadline trade to Philadelphia), and 37.7% over the last five years on 4.2 attempts per game.
As Phoenix Suns fans are both hopeful but not sure that T.J. Warren‘s sudden addition of an outside shot last season will continue, fans should be equally as caution when projecting Randle’s future as a stretch-four, but remain resolute that Harris will maintain this style of play for the foreseeable future.
The Phoenix Suns NEED shooting
Do not too discount the importance Harris’ 3-point shooting will be to the Phoenix Suns if they pursue him this summer.
As intriguing of an addition as Randle would be based on his age and potential, the Phoenix Suns need sure 3-point shooters.
The last team in the NBA in 3-point shooting by average last season, the Suns are presumably going to already lose their best outside shooter in Troy Daniels (I say presumably because I have heard nothing of them intending to re-sign him although I believe he should be a focal point this offseason), it seems inevitable that Warren (their best 3-point shooter by average last season) will be moved to help clear up their glut of wings, and if those two are moved, no elite 3-point shooters are added, and Randle takes a step back in his average from last year, the team will not see a climb in their rankings, seeing a lot fewer wins on the season than we would hope for.
It should of course be noted that a new offense will be installed by Monty Williams as well as the presumed addition of a legitimate starting point guard will both help everyone on the roster whether they were here last season or not.
But a simple fact remains, if Phoenix loses both Troy and T.J. and does not add any other sharp-shooters through other means, Devin Booker will have an extremely difficult time getting clear looks at his own 3-point shots (of which he saw his own average drop from 38.3% in 2017-18 to 32.6% in 2018-19, his career-high followed by his career-low.
Should the Philadelphia 76ers offer a max contract extension to Jimmy Butler, money will quickly grow scare and wallets tight in the Sixers’ front office.
If the Phoenix Suns desire the addition of Tobias Harris over Julius Randle (or any other potential free agent power forward), they might have a much easier time stealing him away than ever before.