Their record had better be much better than last year.
Let’s make one thing clear: while I can honestly see a path to the playoffs in 2019 (a path that I have illustrated here), I – like I said before – am not blinded by my love of this team.
I am not expecting the Phoenix Suns to make the playoffs, I just wouldn’t be knocked over with a feather if they did.
And yet I am also not going to predict it. I will, in fact, predict that they will not make the playoffs this season.
Shocker!
Therefore, the Suns are going to be in the lottery once again. They will have at least one first round pick (their own – unless it is traded for a superstar like Lillard) and potentially the Milwaukee Bucks’ as well – although unlikely.
Either way, they will be in a position to potentially win the lottery by just having an opportunity. Thus, even if they finish with the 9th best record in the Western Conference and miss the playoffs by just one game, we will all be playing the tankathon.com lottery game for a month after the regular season’s conclusion, attempting to see how many times we can finish in the top-three, giving Phoenix the Orlando Magic treatment of 1993.
But is that the only scenario in which the season is successful? If they barely miss the playoffs, but win the lottery (because let’s face it, Suns fans are not going to think very highly of the 14th overall pick in the draft)?
What if, regardless of their position in the lottery, they had 40 wins? Would that be the only means of counting the 2018-19 season a success?
Phoenix Suns
Remember this, 35 wins is still a team that lost 47 games, and 30 wins (although a nine-game improvement over last season), is still a team that lost 52.
If this team – led by Devin Booker who I predict will average over 25 points a game this season – loses anywhere near 50 games, and there weren’t any major injuries, of course, can that possibly be considered a successful season?
And let’s face it: while 29 wins is still an eight-game improvement over 2017-18, if they Suns are in the 20’s in victories this year for the fourth year in a row, then the season cannot possibly be a success.
I’m not even going to ask “can it?” because the answer is no. It unequivocally cannot.
Le’s face it: if the Phoenix Suns are done losing, then they have to start winning. A starting lineup of Devin Booker, Josh Jackson, T.J. Warren, Trevor Ariza, and Deandre Ayton, is a much better lineup then any single lineup the franchise has ran out over the past three seasons.
Their depth too is better, their coaching is better, and the plan to not tank is obviously the best.
But if they only win 30 games, I do not care if that is an eight-game improvement, and I do not care if they are not being blown out every third game they play, it just is not good enough.
In my humble opinion, In order for this season to be a success: the Phoenix Suns need to lose less than 50 games. That means that they have to win at least 33.
And even a 33-49 record would be the 12th worst record in their soon-to-be 51-year history.
Losing less than 50 games too then precludes that they are not being blown out, like, ever. In fact, a 33-49 record would be the baseline for my belief in what a successful 2018-19 season would be.
Truthfully, that is still a lot of losing for a team that will only have one rookie as a regular rotational player (Ayton – although I do expect Mikal Bridges to get plenty of playing time, he will not have nearly the responsibility). So I kind of think that a successful season would actually stand at around 45 losses or less, a 37-45 record, a 16-game improvement.
The Phoenix Suns are finally on the rise. Better players, better coaching, more veteran depth, no edict to lose; all of this stands to reason that the team will be significantly improved over last season, and the two seasons prior.
How many wins would then make the season a success?