It is never too early for wild speculation about where the next young crop of NBA stars will land. Here are the unreasonably early guesses for how the draft will unfold:
You can’t let a guy named Shake drop out of the first round. He’s a big guard and is exactly what the Hawks are looking for. Rangy defenders who can pair well with John Collins and Taurean Prince. Milton’s offense leaves a lot to be desired, but if he can come in and make an immediate impact on the defensive side, he will be a fit for a long time.
The Warriors have done a great job with limited draft picks in the past. Allen seems to to have the kind of talent to allow the Warriors to pull talent out of the late first round hat once again. For all his sins, Allen has a tremendous all-around game and is a ferocious competitor. It is unfair to put him on such a talented team, but it is a good fit for both sides.
The Nets need help. A lot of help. Kenny Atkinson is arguably the best value coach in the NBA, but he doesn’t have much talent to work with. De’Anthony Melton can play either guard spot becoming a nice compliment to D’Angelo Russell. The Nets keep getting players to over-perform and if they can do that with Melton they’ll get a steal here.
What do you get the team with way too much young talent? More young talent to boy up the “old” talent they have. Bates-Diop is a little undersized to play the four, but he has the ability to play bigger than his size without losing natural advantages. He’s a shorter version of Al Horford in many ways and he’d be a nice complimentary fit into their core
The Lakers have shown a strong desire to draft long and athletic players with a lot of raw potential. Diallo fits that mold and does so in a position of need. Diallo can jump through the gym, but on the court he’s just been plum dumb. If he can find a way to develop his basketball IQ, he has the potential to fit in nicely with their developing core.
For the Spurs, it looks like DeJounte Murray is going to be their next low pick star. With anchors at point, small forward, and power forward, how do they fill in the gaps? Enter the well-built sharp shooter Shamet. Like Murray, he’s not going to burst onto the scene in his first year, but he will be able to mirror Danny Green off the bench while he works on his ability to become more assertive on the offensive end. If he can do that, the Spurs will just keep doing what the Spurs do. If not, he becomes the next Green or Mills. At 25, that’s the kind of value you’re looking for.
Holiday isn’t a clean fit for the Hawks, but they’re in a position where they just need to pick the best player available. Holiday has really been an outstanding replacement for Lonzo Ball this year and his all-around game will make him a nice addition for a team who needs a backup point guard.
Washington is trapped in perpetual mediocrity. The only way out is to take a couple of risks. They’ve been burned by unproven European picks before, but that shouldn’t stop them from trying again. Otto Porter might be the best player no one talks about and Kurucs would struggle to find time coming in behind him, but he’s got enough size to spot Markieff Morris at the power forward spot and is skilled enough to play in both big and small lineups. He’s got potential to be a nice spot shooting big man on this team if he develops.
The Pacers are one of the biggest surprises in the NBA. They’re looking set at point guard, power forward, and center. They don’t need ball dominant players, they need elite defenders who can knock down open shots. Meet the perfect candidate for that description. Thomas can come in and do the dirty work, make open shots, and play either the 2 or the 3. He’s a nice fit in this upcoming squad.
They’re the Bucks, which means that they have to draft the craziest pick they can possibly think of. Someone people wouldn’t be able to predict. So, why not take Simons who is kind of in high school, but still qualifies for the draft; who is a complete unknown but has good size and skills? It doesn’t make sense, but when was the last time a pick by the Bucks did make sense?
Who likes defense? Thibs likes defense. Put the top defender in the draft anywhere near the T-Wolves and I expect them to jump all over it.
Oh yeah, and Bruce Brown/Bruce Bowen. Close enough.
The Nuggets have a great young core with their guards and centers. Where they are older and weak is at the forward spots. Enter the most likely player to pull a Kyle Kuzma. Chandler Hutchison is putting up big numbers and has grown into his frame. He is a late bloomer playing on a team where no one is watching, but he should soar during workouts and becoming the replacement for Wilson Chandler makes sense.
The Blazers are a mess of overpaid talent. How they escape mediocrity will be the question they face going forward. One of the most obvious options is to trade one of their elite guards for a better fit on the team or for future assets. The challenge with that approach is the lack of draft depth at guard. Enter a local product who can play either position and has the elite size that they currently lack. He’s a very young prospect, but one who makes a lot of sense for them here.
I have a hard time believing the 76ers will keep this pick, but if they do, Walker could be a great find this low. He’s got good size and raw skills, and it’s possible that if he can put together a better end to the season than his start that he will rise higher than 17th overall. Sitting on the end of the Philadelphia bench would likely be a good pathway for him to develop and eventually be a nice role player on a competitive team.
Denzel Valentine hasn’t been what the Bulls thought they were getting. Adding Musa would give Chicago another sniper alongside Lauri to just rain down misery on opposing teams. He’s a young sharp shooter whose defense leaves a lot to be desired. On a growing Bulls team, he should be a fine fit.
If the Miami pick falls this far down, the Suns should strongly consider flipping it for a chance to move up in the draft or for future considerations. At this point, the cream has been skimmed. If the Suns have to pick here, Robinson is a serious reach, but an interesting one. He’s probably one of the most physically gifted players in the draft. He also has the most question marks given his attitudes towards college and the draft. He’s a super raw prospect, but if he can have a few years on the bench to figure it out, he has seriously high upside.
One of my favorite players in this draft, Williams would be a great addition in L.A. His ability to make highlight reel plays would be a welcomed sight for Clippers fans who no longer see Blake Griffin flying through the sky. He is a raw product who can jump out of the gym, but if he can add some other offensive to his game, he will be truly dangerous. The Clippers hit a similar jackpot with DeAndre Jordan a few years ago and Williams might end up being his replacement with a similar development pattern.
Utah got the steal of the draft at this spot last year. They might be able to pull it off again if they go home with Knox. Knox has elite size and potential, which you could probably say about every player for Kentucky. Rudy Gobert is probably never going to knock down a 3-point shot, but he won’t have to if he’s got Knox developing alongside him. Utah has a chance to create a really special young core and taking the player with the highest potential at this spot makes a lot of sense.
What do you get the team who needs everything? Usually you start with a point guard. Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t going to be a star, but he is going to be a strong player who can play solid defense and has the size to play multiple positions. The team needs to get taller, more athletic, and better on the defensive size. If he can ever find playing time ahead of Austin Rivers he could develop into a quality guard in the league.
The Hornets just don’t make any sense as a unit. They have a lot of talented individual players, but it just doesn’t work when you put it all together. They need to blow this squad up and start over. I know it, you know it, they know it. Kemba Walker is their best piece to move and they won’t want to do that without a plan B. Along comes Sexton who is one of the most reckless/fearless players in this draft. It is unclear if he can be the kind of distributor a team like the Hornets need, but he is a nice piece to start the long rebuilding process around.
Oh the painful pick that should have been the Suns’…this hurts. They could make it more painful by drafting Sexton, but I think they’ll probably decide Simmons is a more than adequate option as the primary ball handler and instead look for better pieces to compliment him. Bridges checks all the boxes Philadelphia needs. A spot up shooter, versatile defender, he is an ideal role player on this team over the long-term. And for the rest of his career Suns fans will say, “and we could have had Bridges” even though this pick isn’t as good as many thought it would be at this point.
I can just feel the overwhelming desire for the Knicks to draft Sexton…they just traded for Emmanuel Mudiay, they drafted Frank Ntilikina last year, but these are the Knicks and they just love to do crazy things like that. I can’t bring myself to do it here, so let’s go for something more sane, like bringing in Miles Bridges. Bridges is a load inside, yet has enough skill to handle the ball. A little like Larry Johnson used to do for the Knicks. He’d be a nice piece sitting between Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. They might be tempted to go for Mikal Bridges instead, but Miles brings more of the versatility that they need on this roster…but then again, it’s the Knicks…so just watch…
The Bulls are putting together a nice young core and Robin Lopez is not a part of that future. The Bulls need someone who can do the dirty work that Lauri Markkanen doesn’t. Enter the next Al Horford who can do a little bit of everything. He’s explosive, he grinds, and he can hit a jumper. He’s also arguably the smartest player in this draft. Having Noah Vonleh, Bobby Portis, Lauri Markkanen, and Carter is the kind of group you can build around in the east.
Cleveland is a great fit for Jackson Jr. Kevin Love is an elite player but somewhat strange fit alongside LeBron. Jackson would be much more Chris Bosh-esque in his style which better seems to fit what LeBron likes to do. I don’t see a scenario where LeBron leaves Cleveland now that they’ve surrounded him with a young core do this pick would potentially allow them to deal Love for another young big who might be a better fit or to move Thompson in a package for an elite center. Bringing Jackson to Cleveland would allow him to operate under the radar where he seems to thrive.
When Zach Randolph went on the decline, Memphis followed. You can make the case that the team has a top-3 point guard in Conley, and Gasol is clearly still an elite center. But they miss that third option who can be ball dominate and get points. Bagley is the perfect fit for them. The Phoenix native might also actually be best suited to eventually pencil in as Gasol’s replacement, although in the interim, he could help form the next three-headed monster that makes them a tough team to beat. They shouldn’t overthink this pick. They’ve got a system that worked well for years, they have a chance put the pieces back in place, so they should do it.
Sacramento has a lot of talent all over the place. However they’re weakest at the wings and Porter could help tremendously. His injury history obviously makes him a little bit of a risk, but his upside justifies the selection. He’s 6’10” 230lbs and he’s silky smooth on the court plus he’s already built like Joe Johnson was fives years into the league. His ability to handle the ball will help take the pressure off of Fox who today gets trapped into oblivion or just left alone to jack up 3’s . He’s not a perfect fit on this team, but they need to take a risk on the player with the highest upside and at this spot, that’s Porter.
I never understand what the Magic are thinking…not in trades, not in the draft, not in free agency, and certainly not on the court. Nothing about the franchise ever seems to follow any kind of logic. So, put a bunch of names in a hat, shake it, draw it. Chris Rock could be the pick here for all I know. However, if there is any logic to what they’re doing at all, Young has to be the pick. They need a point guard and he’s the bets available in this spot. Young fits with the team, his strengths are the Magic’s weaknesses. It just makes too much sense….which means Orlando will probably take someone like Bagley because that’s what they do…remember Suns fans, it could always be worse.
As the Suns have learned, the most painful part of a rebuild is finding adequate bookends in a center and a point guard. Dallas nailed the point guard part in last year’s draft when they picked up Dennis Smith Jr. This year they should fix the center problem by taking Bamba who is a freak of nature. Bamba has the chance to be special. He’s a killer who constantly plays with high energy. He also has a 3-point shot that’s starting to look scary consistent and his ability to block the rim is elite. Add Mohamed to Smith Jr and Harrison Barnes and the Mavericks start to have a nice young core developing. They still won’t be competitive, but it is a lot easier to acquire wings and forwards through free agency and trades than it is to find an elite center.
The Hawks are not in a position to be picky. They need to select the best player available and at second overall that’s Luka Doncic. Dennis Schroder hasn’t been exactly what they were hoping for, but he’s been a solid producer. Teaming him up in the back court with possibly the best prospect to ever come out of Europe makes a lot of sense. That would give the team a versatile young back court to team up with their other first round picks. I’d love to see Doncic in the backcourt with Booker if the Suns could find a way to bundle up the Miami pick and some combination of other assets to move up high enough to select him with a second top-5 pick, but for Doncic, he will find a way to fit in anywhere he goes.
When you have the chance to draft a generational player, you do it. Yes, I know the NBA has moved past the big man era, but Ayton is a man for any era. He is build like a tank yet can step out to hit a 3 with ease. He protects the rim, runs the floor, and can pass. There a truly no big weaknesses in his game. He would be a nice fit alongside Bender down low and would provide the same value that Chandler does with the additional benefit of a jump shot.
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That should make him a quick 20/10 threat and his ability to pass out of the post would make Booker’s jumper even more lethal. Ayton would also help the Suns continue to have a very tall team. The Suns aren’t historically famous for pushing people around, but with Ayton, Jackson, Bender, and Chriss there’s a lot of size and athleticism. This is as close to an easy pick as it comes. If you can draft Ayton, you do it.