Alex Len: Improvements For Year Three

Over the last week, reports about Alex Len surfaced, similar to those of Brian Drew in the movie Draft Day, if you’ll allow a cross-sport, cross-genre (or perhaps cross-reality) comparison. The reports brought a bit of excitement to fans of the Phoenix Suns, especially after the team did not end up taking a big man in the NBA Draft (although they did receive 6’10” Jon Leuer in a trade for the 44th pick).

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However, things changed quite drastically on Wednesday when Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports reported that Tyson Chandler would be joining the team. That brought Len’s role on the team into question, at least in the short-term. However, it is worth noting that Len averaged just 22 minutes per game last year, and it’s not like he’s unfamiliar with playing limited minutes.

For those who might want (or need) a refresher, Alex Len was selected by Phoenix with the fifth overall pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. When Len was chosen there was a bit of controversy, as Nerlens Noel was still on the board, as was Ben McLemore; both were among the top rated prospects heading into the event.

However, sticking with the Draft Day theme, Suns general manager Ryan McDonough must have written himself a note that said “Alex Len, no matter what,” because that’s exactly the direction that the Suns went.

For a little more context, Nerlens Noel was ranked first on Chad Ford’s Top 100 for the 2013 NBA Draft; Len was slotted at sixth. Bleacher Report’s Daniel O’Brien ranked Noel as the top center in the draft; he ranked Len third.

Now, it’s worth noting that Alex Len was at the top of some draft boards. DraftExpress had him as the top prospect heading into the draft, and some felt if he weren’t injured, he would’ve been selected higher. The case was somewhat similar to how Joel Embiid fell to third in 2014 after an injury, following a meteoric rise to the top of the draft boards. However, for the Suns, draft day was just the beginning.

In year one, Len was absolutely atrocious… well… let’s just say not up to par with some of the league’s other young centers. He averaged 2.0 points and 2.4 rebounds per game, shooting just 42.3 percent from the field. Len barely played in half of the team’s games, and in the games he did play, he averaged just 8.6 minutes per outing.

Len did have a single solid game, which is both somewhat humorous and concerning to write looking back. Len played 20-or-more minutes exactly one time, and in that game, he actually looked pretty good. He racked up seven points and 10 rebounds in 22 minutes, as the Suns went on to beat the Milwaukee Bucks. However, that was one flash in what was an otherwise disastrous first year, albeit one derailed by injury.

Year two was absolutely night and day for Alex Len. He became one of the better shot-blocking big men in the league, averaging right around three blocks per 40 minutes, and he actually contributed with some meaningful stat lines. Len posted 10 points and 11 rebounds in an early win against San Antonio; he went for 17 and 11 a couple of weeks later against the Clippers, and he would go on to have eight more double-doubles after that point.

Len also had six total five-block and six-block games, and his offense absolutely came around. Len managed to score five-or-more points just seven times in his rookie year; he posted six times as many performances over the next season, and almost three-times as many double-digit scoring performances as well. He also made his fair-share of highlights and wasn’t afraid to go out and get a poster on anyone.

So logically, the question to ask seems to be a simple one: Where does Len go from here?

In this post, I’ve outlined a few areas where Suns fans can expect Len to continue to improve, which should hopefully inspire a bit of confidence. I know Suns fans aren’t exactly in love with this team coming into the year (unless Phoenix locks in LaMarcus Aldridge, that is), but there are some really solid pieces in place, and if Len can improve in his third year like he did in his second, he’ll definitely turn some heads. His health may be the only thing that can hold him back.

Next: Shooting Potential

Shooting Potential

While he did struggle at times, Alex Len’s ability to shoot the ball was on display on a couple of occasions. Len attempted 62 shots outside of 14-feet, which was actually a meaningful number considering that (1) he only averaged 22 minutes per game and (2) he only played 25 or more minutes in a game 24 times.

Len averaged right around 2.5 attempted midrange jumpers per 40 minutes, and while he shot just 43 percent on those, according to NBA.com, he appears to have been working on his shot a lot over the summer.

In fact, according to Suns coach Jeff Hornacek, he’s worked on it so much that he may even extend that range to the three-point line in the upcoming season.

Now three-point stuff aside, there is some precedence to a big man improving his midrange game during his third season. In fact, there’s some precedence on the Suns.

In Markieff Morris’ third season, his midrange numbers shot up. Morris shot 42.9 percent from the field on shots ranging from 16-24 feet, and he shot 44.3 percent on midrange jumpers, according to NBA.com. He also shot 45.9 percent and 46.8 percent on jumpers in the 15-to-19 and 10-to-14 feet range from the hoop, respectively.

All of those numbers were higher than the percentages he put up the year before. In fact, his midrange shooting percentage went up by almost 10 percent, while his shooting percentage on 10-14 feet jumpers went up by over 15 percent.

But what about a more player-specific example?

One of the most common comparisons to Len coming out of college was Roy Hibbert, a player who also saw an increase in his midrange percentages after getting a feel for play at the NBA level.

Now, Hibbert’s shooting didn’t exactly mirror that of Morris. Hibbert’s midrange numbers didn’t get up into the 40 percent range until his fifth year, but the important thing to note is that he kept working on his midrange game, and finally it paid off.

And going back to three-point range, Alex Len is already ahead of Hibbert’s pace. After all, he did knock down a three-point shot last year (against Houston). Hibbert’s first three-point make came 90 games into his career; it *only* took Len 63.

I kid, I kid.

Next: Pick & Roll/Chemistry

Pick & Roll/Chemistry

If you’re a Suns fan, there is a 99 percent 100 percent chance that the words “pick and roll” bring back memories of Steve Nash and Amar’e Stoudemire absolutely dicing up defenses. Well this summer, Len and Eric Bledsoe have reportedly been spending a lot of time in the gym working on that very thing.

Now, coming into the year, there were some questions about whether or not Bledsoe would be back, but recently the Suns have refuted these rumors. For the time being, it appears like the two could have a chance to mesh as the team tries to contend for a playoff spot, and while Suns fans may not be incredibly high on either guy, the important thing is that they’re building that chemistry and skill together.

Regardless, the pick and roll isn’t going anywhere as a staple in the Suns’ offense. I mean, just take a look at how the Suns scored on the first possession of their first game in the 2014-15 season.

I think we’ve pretty much established at this point that the Suns are trying to open up a window three or four (or five) seasons from now, when the team’s best players are in their primes, so the fact that these guys have been working at it together really does mean something.

Player ages

2019-20 season

Devin Booker: 23

Archie Goodwin: 25

T.J. Warren: 26

Alex Len: 26

Brandon Knight: 27

Eric Bledsoe: 29

Markieff Morris: 30

Whether or not you believe in that core, the fact that there is a core is progress in of itself. The Suns have at least one young player with potential at every position, and I think it’s fair to say that in a couple of years, Phoenix could be a pretty attractive free agent destination, talent-wise.

There’s no way to know what the future holds. The Suns could very well deal Bledsoe, while Len could never play a full season again because of his health; the Morris twins could never outplay their baggage while T.J. Warren and Archie Goodwin never develop.

But why dwell on the negative when positive things are happening right now?

Alex Len is in the gym working on the intricacies of his game alongside the Suns’ best player, coming off of a season where he (Len) showed flashes of how good he could become. If a third-year jump is in the cards for the center out of Maryland, there’s a good chance we feel a lot differently about this team heading into the next offseason.

This is also where the addition of Tyson Chandler comes into play. Chandler would be able to mentor Len and help him improve his game in many ways, and one of those would be in how he learns the pick-and-roll.

It’s actually kind of funny: If you search “Tyson Chandler Pick and Roll” on YouTube or Google, you’ll actually get a surprisingly large number of results. That’s because Chandler is among the best in the game at that type of offense, and hopefully it’s something he’ll be able to teach Alex Len moving forward.

And when it comes to the mentorship from Chandler… could there BE a better option?

Next: Block-To-Foul Ratio

Block-To-Foul Ratio

Usually when we hear about a [blank]-to-[blank] ratio in sports, it’s either an assist-to-turnover ratio in basketball or a touchdown-to-interception ratio in football, because…well…people care about points.

Scoring points is a pretty important part of winning in basketball, but then again, so is preventing them. For that reason, I’d like to talk about another ratio: Block-to-foul ratio. However, before we dive into the advanced statistics, it’s probably best to back up a touch.

Alex Len was a pretty strong defender last year, at least on the inside. Opponents shot 6.3 percent worse against Len then they did all other players on field goal attempts from less than six-feet from the hoop, and as far as shot-blocking was concerned, Len was among the best, at least midway through the year.

Len posted three-plus blocks on 16 different occasions and four-plus blocks 10 times. Additionally, he finished the season ranked sixth in blocks per 40 minutes, not to mention fifth in block percentage, according to Basketball-Reference.

Looking specifically at block percentage, Len was only behind Rudy Gobert, Anthony Davis, Serge Ibaka and DeAndre Jordan, and was in front of players like Andrew Bogut, Tim Duncan and Nerlens Noel, all of whom were ranked in the top-10. And speaking of Noel, Len had absolutely no problem going toe-to-toe with some of the bigger players in the league, let alone players from his same draft class.

However, to only talk about the blocks tells just one side of the story, and that really isn’t fair to do. Aside from time missed due to injuries, Alex Len probably would’ve played more minutes, if not for the somewhat comical number of fouls he committed.

Len had more blocks than fouls in just 18.8 percent (13-of-69) of the games he played in, and he averaged just 0.49 blocks per foul on the year. That number ranked outside the top 30 in the NBA, and it was 20th out of all centers alone. However, it is worth noting that Len averaged more blocks per 40 minutes than every center ahead of him in that category, except for Andrew Bogut, Bismack Biyombo, John Henson, Hassan Whiteside and Rudy Gobert.

The Smoking Cuban

So will he improve? The numbers say yes.

To go back to the popular comparison, Roy Hibbert averaged 8.6 fouls per 40 minutes in his first season. However, that number would decrease dramatically over the next few years. In year two, it went down to *just* 5.6 fouls per 40 minutes; by year four he was down to 4.0 fouls per 40 minutes.

In fact, looking at the three players with more experience than Len that were ahead of him on the block percentage list, the numbers are similar. Anthony Davis knocked out more than 1.1 fouls per 40 minutes from year two to year three; Serge Ibaka’s fouls per 40 minutes dropped substantially in each of his first four seasons; DeAndre Jordan’s fouls per 40 minutes dropped every single year after his rookie season, a trend which continued into last year, where he averaged right around 3.4 blocks per 40 minutes.

If Len can follow in the footsteps of the other elite shot-blockers in the NBA, and limit his fouls, there’s no reason he won’t be able to take his game to a completely different level. And once again, with a mentor like Tyson Chandler, there’s no reason to think that won’t happen.

Since the 2010-11 season, Chandler has committed less fouls per game year after year, while averaging a similar number of blocks. He’s also improved his block-to-foul ratio over each of the last three years.

With the two working together, who knows what the future will hold?

Next: Conclusion

Conclusion

There is no reason to expect Alex Len to transform into Superman in year three, but fortunately there is a lot of positive precedence to draw from. It’s absolutely reasonable to expect Len to improve in the three areas I listed, which could definitely mean good things in the future.

The fact of the matter is we don’t know how Len (and perhaps more importantly, how his body) is going to hold up over the next few years, nor do we know how good or bad the Suns will be in the 2015-16 season.

Sir Charles In Charge

However, here’s what we do know.

Last year, Alex Len was solid for a second-year center who hardly played at all in year one, and he was among the league’s best shot-blockers period. Len showed immense improvement from year one to year two, and based off the information being reported, it wouldn’t be foolish to expect a similar jump in year three.

Waiting can be one of the most difficult things to do in life. I could throw out any number of clichés and quotes that back that up, but really, nothing will speak louder than results.

In year one, Alex Len was a non-factor. In year two, he became a difference maker. If the jump to year three is anything like it was in year two, the Suns’ core should really start to be coming together well.

Simply put, the guy already showed people what he could do as a second-year center, not to mention he just turned 22 years old less than a month ago.

This was the work of a 21-year-old Alex Len:

Who knows what the future holds?

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