Welcome to the First Annual Phoenix Suns Free Agency Value Column, shamelessly adapted (read: stolen) from Grantland’s Bill Simmons!
More from Suns News
- Ranking the Phoenix Suns’ 5 holiday games in 2023-24
- Zion Williamson gets compared to Phoenix Suns legend
- Suns player preview: Bol Bol can be the perfect role player
- Former Suns’ guard shows he is officially done with Phoenix
- NBA insider guarantees Suns’ rival won’t make blockbuster trade
Last summer’s free agency bonanza was a success on paper. Isaiah Thomas, one of five players in the league to average 20 points and six assists per game, was brought in on an absolute steal of a contract. Phoenix avoided the pitfall of overpaying an aging veteran in Channing Frye and managed to avoid losing Eric Bledsoe for nothing, even though that meant overpaying for him.
Of course, the on-court results didn’t quite pan out. Thomas played well, but his presence divided a previously united locker room, and Frye’s shooting was dearly missed with his replacement Anthony Tolliver never making an impact before getting dealt to the Detroit Pistons in December.
While Suns general manager Ryan McDonough will have his share of difficult decisions to make on the high seas of the open market, it’s pretty clear what he needs to do in his own pond.
But just in case he has more trouble than I did, I wrote him this column! I ranked all five of the Suns’ impending unrestricted free agents from least valuable to most, taking into account fit, upside, the money they’ll command and overall talent of the player.
Without further ado, let’s get to the rankings!
Next: No. 5
5. Jerel McNeal
A former college All-American and Big East DPOY at Maquette, McNeal is more than qualified in the 15th man role, but considering he’s a 27-year-old rookie this feels like the perfect spot for him.
McNeal had a superb season in the D-League, winning Impact Player of the Year (best midseason acquisition). He put up solid base stats of 18.5 points, 4.6 assists and 4.0 rebounds a game. His 43 percent mark from the field is a bit concerning, but he made up for it by shooting over 80 percent from the stripe and 35 percent from behind the arc.
Best-case NBA scenario; he turns into a 3-and-D guy who can play emergency or garbage time minutes at the spot.
The Suns recycled through journeymen at the end of the roster since the trade deadline and McNeal may prove to be an NBA-caliber guy, but he wouldn’t have even made the roster if not for Brandon Knight‘s ankle woes.
Unless he wows anyone over the summer, McNeal will likely be a victim of the numbers game.
Next: No. 5
4. Marcus Thornton
He’s played a total of 81 minutes, missed 10 games before returning earlier this month against the Atlanta Hawks and I may or may not have temporarily forgotten he’s on the roster.
It’s equally easy to forget that at one point in his career Thornton looked like a valuable asset. His second season in the league, he averaged over 21 points a game on a relatively efficient 53 percent true shooting percentage over a 37-game stretch with the Sacramento Kings. His base stats steadily declined from that peak until a minor bump up this season.
Assuming Thornton’s game (versus his confidence/fit) hasn’t actually devolved over the years, he could still be a positive off the bench…just not in Phoenix. Thornton’s yet another shoot-first player on a team full of them and he hasn’t been quite good enough or young enough to justify his presence on the roster.
Thornton had a good game & could be a great addition off bench to a team looking to make the playoffs, but the Suns aren't in that position
— Sean Sullivan (@SeanSullivanNBA) March 12, 2015
Thornton’s certainly not a long-term fit, but that doesn’t necessarily preclude Phoenix from re-signing him at the right price. McDonough understands the inherent value of signing a tradable contract regardless of need.
While Thomas (who was most likely signed with the same logic) obviously didn’t work out, Thornton wouldn’t play a significant enough role to provoke the same chemistry issues.
While players like Gerald Green and Brandan Wright seemed more confident about their futures in Phoenix after meeting with the team’s brain trust, Thornton dropped this bravado.
“Who knows? Who knows? Just go in and work this summer and let the chips fall where they may and see what happens,” Thornton said.
Definitely not the epitome of confidence.
The smart money is on the Suns letting him go, but tossing him an extremely team friendly offer and seeing if he bites isn’t out of the question.
Next: No. 3
3. Earl Barron
Every NBA fan has that obscure role player they inexplicably fell in love with over the years and “The Baron of Buckets” (can we make that a thing?) is that guy for me.
Seemingly every year while I was growing up, the New York Knicks would inevitably fall out of playoff contention and then sign a litany of mostly unremarkable journeymen to fill out the bench during the dog days of the season.
And year after year, Barron would wind up in Madison Square Garden and inevitably look like the best rebounder on whatever garbage fire of a roster he was playing with. Ryan McDonough even mentioned before the season, that 17-point, 18-rebound performance from Barron against McDonough’s Boston Celtics back in 2010 helped convince the GM to sign him in Phoenix.
Barron had his best performance of the year in the Suns’ final game, hitting a career high two three-pointers and finishing with nine points and four rebounds.
“I’ve always been able to shoot, it’s just a matter of getting out there, being relaxed, being comfortable and having fun,” he said. “A lot of times you get out there for two or three minutes and your three point shot it just doesn’t feel well.”
While he’s certainly shown his shooting ability in the D-League, he’s just a career 37 percent shooter at the NBA level.
At age 31, it’s unlikely Barron, who spent half the season in Bakersfield, will ever have a significant NBA moment. Yet he’s the rare guy that can be pulled out of NBA purgatory and play at something close to replacement level.
Barron made a significant impact off the court this season, setting a strong example for the younger players (everyone) on the team.
Earl Barron said as the oldest player on the #Suns roster, he tried to be the guy who would come early and stay late to set an example
— Valley of the Suns (@ValleyoftheSuns) April 15, 2015
While his contribution on the court may not warrant it, the 2014-15 Suns “veteran presence” started and ended with Barron, which should be enough to get him the last spot on the roster.
Next: No. 2
2. Gerald Green
Gerald Green’s late season comments on his lack of playing time, combined with Jeff Hornacek’s and Green’s agent’s respective responses, make it very likely his days as a Sun are numbered.
“He never really seemed to get it going and then it comes to the point where, if you’re not scoring and if your defense isn’t picking up, it’s hard to stay in the game,” Hornacek told the Arizona Republic’s Paul Coro.
Perhaps motivated by Hornacek’s (relatively mild and mostly fair) critique, Green played out of his mind over his last five healthy games, averaging 21.6 points in 25.4 minutes a game. Green also acknowledged that he needs to improve defensively.
Yet despite the quibbling, there was Green on check out day preaching optimism.
“Yeah I’ve said that before, I do want to come back. I think they want me back too,” he said. “I just talked to Lon actually it was a good conversation, I’m a little positive about that so we’ll see where that takes us.”
With a moderate amount of cap space and Green’s stated intention to retire in Phoenix, it’s well within the Suns’ means to bring him back. It just doesn’t seem like they’d want to.
Green averaged 20.5 minutes per game before the All-Star break and 16 after (inflated by the final few games) despite no longer having to contend with Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas for minutes. Those two getting traded signified a shift from semi-contention to a (not stated) semi-rebuild, and Green doesn’t fit in with those plans.
His offensive win shares dropped from 4.2 last year to just 0.8 this season. His true shooting percentage is down from 58 percent to 52 percent this season. While some of that can be attributed to Green not playing with the same spacing this year, at age 29, he probably won’t hit those levels again.
Another issue is Green’s 8.9 percent assist rate (bottom 10 amongst qualified shooting guards), which accurately indicates that his eyes haven’t left the rim since he landed in Phoenix.
I actually have this weird feeling the Suns might want to resign Gerald Green since his stock sort of fell. Affordable and a good teammate.
— Kevin Zimmerman (@KZimmermanAZ) April 15, 2015
His unwillingness to move the ball and his positional overlap with Archie Goodwin and T.J. Warren leaves him unplayable among those three. The Suns have smartly prioritized developing their youth, leaving Green as the BICOHHC (break in case of emergency human heat check), a role he wasn’t content with down the stretch.
Green’s recent surge, and his exit interview comments make it plausible that the Suns would bring him back is he’s willing to sign at a discount.
But the combination of an inevitably reduced role and more enticing offers elsewhere likely means that Green is gone.
Next: No. 1
1. Brandan Wright
Far and away, this is the unrestricted free agent the Suns most want to re-sign. Over his last four starts (over the course of the last 15 games), Brandan Wright averaged 16.0 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game.
Despite increased minutes he’s still shooting over 57 percent from the field since March. While that’s not quite on par with the jaw dropping 72 percent he was rocking earlier this season, the mark still puts him amongst the game’s elite finishers.
.@bwright34, especially as a starter, is the Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt of the Suns. A pleasant, energetic and entertaining surprise.
— Espo (@Espo) April 8, 2015
Without the benefit of playing with Dirk Nowitzki, Wright has had to figure out how to operate in tight quarters and he’s done just that by adding a push shot to his game.
While he by no means has a complex offensive game, he’s gotten legitimately good at catching around the elbow taking one dribble and using his combination of outrageous length and touch to get off a decent look whenever he wants.
He’s added that little push shot to his game that forces defenders to commit a little harder when he catches the ball away from the rim, something that just didn’t happen early in his career.
Wright’s never going to be a No. 1 option, but diversifying his attack will allow him to continue to have success even without pristine floor spacing and when teams take away the lob.
His defensive rating was (relatively) off the charts over the last five weeks of the season. His rating (which measures points allowed per 100 possessions while a player is on the floor), never went below 105.3 from November to February. For March and April it was a pristine 97.0, with presumed DPOY Draymond Green posting a nearly identical 96.9 mark over the same stretch.
Given that Green’s teammates are dramatically better on defense than Wright’s, it’s fair to wonder if Wright was the better defender over that stretch.
Wright’s rim protection is almost on par with Alex Len‘s, and Wright still has the quickness to survive for short stretches on switches.
“I brought a lot of shot blocking to the table, I think guys knew that I was behind them and funneled the defense to me,” he said. “We made some strides, we took a lot of criticism this year, but I think we did get a lot better in that area.”
With Len being prone to foul trouble and getting hurt, having an insurance policy like Wright long-term is a game-changer and makes the sophomore big expendable in a potential blockbuster deal.
Wright’s 20.4 PER ranks 34th in the league and he’s the only player that high to play less than 25 minutes a game. With the impending cap rise, it’s going to be hard to overpay him especially considering he’s still just 27 without heavy minutes on his career odometer. He should only become more effective when the guard play and spacing around him inevitably (read hopefully) improves.
The question is does Wright want to be in Phoenix? If he’s to be taken at his exit day interview word he’s definitely considering the possibility.
“Definitely you know my family loves it here, nice weather, I like Jeff as a coach,” he said. “The organization is really pushing to make this place a strong place to be, you know obviously a couple of different guys or whatever, but I think it’s going in the right direction.”
Wright knows that he’s wanted back by the Suns’ side.
“I think so, I think so,” Wright said while laughing, at the presumably outrageous lengths the Suns brain trust went to make that sentiment clear to him.
Wright will likely want an opportunity to start if he stays in Phoenix. We don’t have a large enough sample size of Len and Wright playing together to guess how it would look on a long-term basis, but its viability would depend entirely on one of the two developing a consistent a consistent 15-footer.
The proverbial iron curtain draped over the Suns’ rim with the twin towers in would certainly be appealing, and make up for shortcomings elsewhere on that end.
Wright going back to Dallas isn’t out of the question, given his obvious comfort there both on and off the court. He definitely didn’t give a definitive no when he was asked during the season. His job would be easier in Dallas, but he’s more likely to get paid in Phoenix.
Ultimately Wright, who was eager to take his daughter to Disney now that the season is over, is looking for long-term security.
“When you’re in the last year of your deal it’s easy to get moved, so hopefully I sign for four or five years and it’s impossible to move me,” Wright said with a laugh.
Phoenix, possessing Wright’s Bird Rights (not intentional, I promise), is the only team that can offer him five years.
The Suns can only hope that’ll be enough.
Next: T.J. Warren: 2014-15 Phoenix Suns Player Grades