Table courtesy of Piston Powered

Time: Tuesday, May 21, 5:30 p.m. PST

TV: ESPN

Finally, the Phoenix Suns have found themselves not only in the lottery, but in a good position to win it. The NBA Draft Lottery kicks off at 5:30 p.m. on Tuesday and the Suns’ fourth-worst NBA record gives them the fourth-likely chance of winning the top overall pick. Suns president of basketball operations Lon Babby will be in attendance in New York, while GM Ryan McDonough remains in Phoenix. McDonough will address the media following the pick.

Their chances stand at 11.9 percent, but history proves that it’s truly up to luck. Since the draft lottery started operating in a weighted format in 1990, the fourth-worst team has never won; the 1994 Bucks earned the fourth slot and got the top pick, but they were only the fourth team in line by losing a three-way tiebreaker with the second-worst NBA record. The Orlando Magic stand in Phoenix’s way as the most-likely suitors to get the first pick, but their odds only sit at 25 percent. The Charlotte Bobcats (19.9 percent shot of winning) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (15.6 percent) also have better chances than the Suns.

But there’s good reason to never say never.

In 1993, the Orlando Magic were coming off a decent rebuilding year after selecting top pick Shaquille O’Neal the year prior. Despite having the 11th-worst NBA record, they won the lottery and used the pick on Chris Webber, who was immediately exchanged for Penny Hardaway.

The league’s worst team hasn’t picked first since 2004, when the Magic selected Dwight Howard after putting up the NBA’s worst mark.

The Suns should be simply happy to have a decent shot at selecting first overall. In the lottery era the Suns have selected in the top-10 only three times, and they haven’t been in a position to pick so high since 2004 when they netted the seventh overall pick but traded Luol Deng to the Chicago Bulls for second-round choice Jackson Vroman and a 2005 late first-round pick that became Nate Robinson.

Phoenix has selected in the top-5 only six times. Those picks included Neal Walk at No. 2 in 1969, Corky Calhoun at fourth in 1972, John Shumate also at fourth in 1974, Alvan Adams at fourth in 1975, Walter Davis at fifth in 1977 and most recently Armen Gilliam as the second overall pick in 1987.

If the Suns become the first team with the fourth-worst record to win the lottery, it wouldn’t be all that surprising. The teams that have won the lottery the most in the 23 years since the lottery’s weighed system began are the third-worst teams and the fifth-worst teams, which have each won the lottery five times.

As the below shows, Phoenix has historically been very good at getting value when it selects in the middle of the lottery. Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion were building blocks for very successful teams, after all. Should the Suns have kept Deng, their luck in the top-10 would still be considered exceptional.

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When Phoenix traded Boris Diaw to Charlotte for Jason Richardson back in 2008, it received Jared Dudley as an extra throw-in as part of the deal.

What the Suns didn’t know: they were getting was someone with a chip on their shoulder. An edge. A bit player intent on proving he was more than that.

For two years Dudley did just that, pushing the starters in front of him, starters who knew that head coach Alvin Gentry had no problem sitting them in favor of Dudley’s hustle and improved shooting stroke if they weren’t providing at least that much on the floor themselves.

Dudley found out what that feels like this season. Now a known-quantity with a long-term contract, the Boston College product, saw his minutes — and role — fluctuate after P.J. Tucker started providing the hustle and energy on which Dudley once prided himself. Assumed to be a full-time starter with both Richardson and Grant Hill gone, Dudley started just 50 of the 79 games he played this season.

It hasn’t helped that Dudley’s production has basically flatlined over the past three seasons.

Jared Dudley’s per 36 minutes stats

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Stability hasn’t been there for the Phoenix Suns. The franchise has essentially required turnstyles just to keep their coaching and front office staffs in relative order. And for Michael Beasley, the combination of that and his personal instability caused the proverbial excrement to hit the fan during the 2012-13 season.

That was all innocent in comparison to the reports that a sexual-assault claim was filed against the Suns forward for a January incident. While that could be simply a case of an athlete being targeted for his fame, nothing can be good for Beasley’s image. He already had a legal issue with a January traffic stop for speeding that involved an expired license and a loaded firearm.

Beasley didn’t handle the season well on the court, either.

His three-year, $18 million contract and career-worst numbers put the pressure on. Alvin Gentry’s attempt to mold him into a playmaker and ballhandler didn’t force him to focus, neither did a benching and neither did Lindsey Hunter’s persistence in holding him accountable.

No matter the case, Beasley was consistently inconsistent. He never for more than a few games in a row flashed his talent that defined his success in high school and college. For that, the Phoenix brass has a difficult situation on its hands — it’ll be hard for the franchise to wash this off of them.

The numbers don’t make the offseason signing that made then-general manager Lance Blanks giddy with excitement look like a good one.

Of the Suns who played at least 15 percent of the available minutes, Beasley had the third-worst on-court plus-minus of -10.4, behind only Kendall Marshall’s -12.7 and Wesley Johnson’s -11.6. Beasley recorded the second-best off-the-court plus-minus on the team of -3.9, only trailing Markieff Morris’ -3.8, according to 82games.com. Beasley’s PER has fallen in every one of his five NBA seasons, and his effective field goal percentage (taking into account the value of a three-point shot) and true shooting percentage (which also accounts for threes and free throws) each hit all-time lows. According to HoopData.com and Basketball-Reference.com, his true shooting percentage was more than 4 percent lower than it has been in any of Beasley’s first four seasons.

Beasley was dead last in the NBA – 469th to be exact – in win shares with a figure of -1.5, according to Basketball-Reference.com.

Whatever the statistics might show, none harbor the value of his lack of consistency. None can lend evidence to what’s going on in Beasley’s head.

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Like so many veterans before him, Jermaine O’Neal came to Phoenix in search of rejuvenation. He had spent his previous two seasons languishing in Boston with seemingly insurmountable injury woes. The allure of the storied Phoenix Suns’ training staff and miracles they had worked on other veteran’s bodies was strong, and so he signed on with the Suns for the veteran’s minimum to be their backup center.

With the help of the Suns’ trainers O’Neal played in 55 games this year. That total is the second highest he has played in the last 10 seasons. O’Neal’s injury problems were not only just a recent concern. Considering the fact that he has played 70 or more games only six times in his sixteen seasons, the word chronic seems appropriate to describe Jermaine’s injury history.

When he was on the court this season, O’Neal looked quite spry. He moved well for a 34-year old 16-year veteran and provided the Suns with a strong post presence. According to MySynergySports, O’Neal ranked 14th in the NBA in post defense, allowing only 0.63 points per play to opponents. On offense, he was the Suns’ best post scorer other than Luis Scola. Overall, the Suns relied on O’Neal for shot blocking, rebounding, and most importantly, toughness.

The man he backed up, Marcin Gortat, is a very talented player. No one would deny that. But the Polish Hammer has a tendency to back down from physical competition. We’ve seen him crumble time and time again opponents like Dwight Howard and Utah’s fearsome frontcourt. On the days when Gortat wasn’t up to the task, O’Neal stepped in and played tough. Despite his age and the NBA mileage on his legs, Jermaine never backed down from an opponent. When he played, he played hard with all of his emotion right at the surface. This explains why Jermaine was whistled for 12 technical fouls, tied for eighth most in the league and trailing only DeMarcus Cousins for most technicals per game.

Those techs were also indicative of O’Neal’s frustration with the Suns’ season as a whole. Though he didn’t play much in a Celtic’s uniform, O’Neal had still been a part of a veteran-laden locker room in Boston for the last two years and the team had been a serious contender in the East. Before that he played for two playoff teams in Miami. And before that, he played in Indiana for eight years during which time the Pacers made the playoffs in six straight seasons.

The point I’m getting at here is that O’Neal had never really been part of a rebuilding team before this season. In his last two years with the Pacers, Indiana missed the playoffs, but they were more a team in decline in the wake of the Artest Melee than a team in full rebuilding mode. Rebuilding means a lot of losing. It certainly did this year for Phoenix. It also means rotations, minutes, and team objectives are in constant flux. Flux is frustrating to a veteran no matter how you look at it.

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Failure’s traditional plot in the NBA — where niches are as important as the fairytale dreams of superstardom — generally begins with talent and bloated heads. It’s not P.J. Tucker’s story, though he’ll admit to once having a bloated head.

If there was one success of former general manager Lance Blanks’ tenure, it was bringing the former second-round draft pick back to the NBA. In a very Ryan McDonough type of way, Blanks kept his eye on Tucker, although it might’ve only been because the two have the same alma mater.

Nevertheless, things worked out. Tucker’s reclamation project began with himself, not anything the team did to develop him. Tucker said that he entered the league out of Texas with an immaturity that as the 35th overall pick in 2006 made his time with the Toronto Raptors short. Traveling from Germany, to Israel, to Puerto Rico, Tucker grew into a league MVP in Ukraine and learned that he was no NBA star – but he had the talent to make the league as a gritty defender.

“At some point you have to take in account your actions, what you do and what it takes to be able to grow in this business,” Tucker said after signing with the Suns, “to be able to have people want to bring you in, have people want to always say your name, and having you be around in the topic of conversation.”

Whether it was then-coach Alvin Gentry, Summer League coach Dan Majerle, interim Lindsey Hunter or Blanks, the Suns’ staff could always circle back to Tucker’s name. It was, after all, one of the few positives in a lost year.

Tucker was also arguably the most consistent player on a Phoenix Suns team where even its best players – Goran Dragic and Marcin Gortat – displayed varying levels of inconsistency. He promised before the season that was one thing he could bring.

Of all the Suns’ goals set before the year, Tucker’s might’ve had the only ones that panned out.

Signed as a fill-in 12th man, fight and consistency became Tucker’s M.O. in 2012-13. It came quickly, too. Gentry turned to Tucker as a starter on Dec. 12, 2012, to stop eventual scoring champion Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The nod on New Years Eve was representative of Tucker’s resolution as a person to mature into the teammate he is today.

Often, he was the one Suns player that spoke both candidly and with the most genuine tone.

“It sucks,” Tucker said after a 117-86 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on March 22. “I don’t know how to put that. It sucks. I hate losing. I’m a competitor, I hate losing. I hate being in positions where … I got to do these interviews. It pisses me off. So for me, we got to get ready for Sunday. Brooklyn ain’t going to come in here and say, ‘Aw they ain’t got no bigs, ah, we going to lay down, we going to take it easy on ‘em.’ They’re going to try to knock our heads off.”

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The narrative of Wesley Johnson’s first, and possibly last, season in Phoenix perfectly mirrors the story of the Suns’ season as a whole.

Johnson’s arrival this past summer, like that of so many of his teammates, was unexpected. The Suns put together a three-team trade that sent backup center Robin Lopez and and reserve forward Hakim Warrick to New Orleans. Johnson joined former Minnesota Timberwolves teammate Michael Beasley on the roster. The reasoning behind the acquisitions of both Beasley and Johnson was simple: acquire a former Top 5 pick in desperate need of a change of scenery and see if he can realize his talent in Phoenix. Johnson had been the #4 in the draft just two years before, but despite ample playing time in Minnesota, he had never found himself as a player. The Suns were in need of athleticism and outside shooting. Johnson was supposed to provide both.

There was a great deal of optimism surrounding the Suns coming out of the summer. The roster was full of fresh faces and potential. All the parts seemed to fit together and the team seemed like it might have a chance to make some noise. Much of the pre-season optimism was inspired by Johnson. Johnson was red hot from downtown during training camp and preseason. By all accounts he looked to be the Suns’ most athletic and versatile wing player. At the time most people in and around the Suns’ organization were still drinking the Michael Beasley Kool-Aid, so it was assumed that Johnson would be an off-the-bench scorer and floor spacer.

But the season started and Johnson was nowhere to be found. He played only 72 minutes in 2012 and appeared in less than half of the Suns games. Despite Alvin Gentry’s preseason encouragement, Johnson seemed to have completely fallen out of favor with his head coach. As the Suns struggled, Gentry constantly juggled his lineup, but Wes didn’t factor in to any of Coach Gentry’s plans. Johnson seemed to lack the focus and effort that Gentry required, especially from his young players. Though the Suns were on a one-way trip to the cellar, getting Johnson minutes to develop and see what kind of player he might be was not a priority in Phoenix.

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