Michael Schwartz: Two seasons ago the Phoenix Suns faced a franchise-altering summer and came away with a slew of overpriced role players after Amare Stoudemire departed.

The Suns are embarking on another critical offseason in which they may lose another franchise icon and be left with a few banks worth of cash to start the rebuilding process. Or Steve Nash could return and they could try to put the best team out there while getting younger at the same time. Or maybe Nash returns along with a stud free agent like Eric Gordon and the Suns are good again. Or maybe the first scenario occurs and the Suns keep their powder dry until next offseason.

This offseason could go in many different ways and whichever way it does will color the direction of this proud franchise.

At a lunch with the media on Wednesday, Suns president of basketball operations Lon Babby hammered home the point that the Suns will not spend just to spend with just over $30 million in commitments for next season. They will be disciplined in their approach and will not just fling around money because they have it as seemed to be the case two years ago.

The counter-argument (which I do not subscribe to) is that Babby is just setting up the Suns to be cheap if they don’t re-sign Nash.

Kevin Zimmerman, are you with me that this is the right approach to rebuilding the Suns back into the “elite” team Babby proclaimed he wants them to soon be?

Kevin Zimmerman: I’m with you in that the philosophy Babby was trying to sell is a good one. Now we get to find out if that’s an honest plan from the man at the top in Robert Sarver, or if it is indeed the counterargument of Phoenix being cheap.

Look, at some point all those sold draft picks has to culminate in something.

To Babby’s credit, he did mention those sold draft picks this week, saying the Suns really need to do better in developing young talent. So I think that while spending money on free agents — and wisely at that — is important, watching the amount of activity on draft day will also lend evidence as to whether or not Phoenix is really trying to work toward building an elite team.

Before the trading deadline, I thought it would be a good sign if the Suns made some small moves to free up more cap space/acquire young players, or even if they were rumored to trade a guy like Robin Lopez. In that, we could at least see that the Suns were really trying hard to go in a new direction. We didn’t hear so much as a peep.

This summer, there had better be a little more action between the draft and free agency. While it’s not the worst thing if they hold off and sign some one-year contracts to look to next summer, they at least need to show the fans that they’re active in change, because the status quo isn’t working.

Home run signings aside, what would you consider a positive offseason?

Schwartz: Very interesting question that’s difficult to answer before we know what choices they have, but if they avoid any and all dumb moves I would consider it a positive offseason. Making a smart draft pick should also be part of this equation, but coming from the guy who thought Earl Clark was a smart pick it might take time to judge that part of the summer.

I understand to some that could be seen as a fairly low bar to set, but I just hope we’ve seen our last mid-level contract for a role player for some time. The reason I’m grading this on a scale is because there just isn’t very much of that top-shelf talent available, so if they don’t get the big fish what else can they really do?

For it truly to be considered successful, I’ll add that they need to make one savvy, Sam Presti-style move. That could be making a lopsided trade, winning an amnesty auction or whatever else. Just something to give hope that the Suns are going about things the right way.

If Nash leaves, bringing back The Dragon would qualify as a good move in my book and taking a shot at a talented but thus far underwhelming young gun like O.J. Mayo or Jerryd Bayless could be interesting as well. Just as long as they don’t overpay.

So two questions for you. How do you think this Nash thing plays out and who are some under the radar free agents you think the Suns should go after?

Zimmerman: I think it’s evident that this early into the process Nash has no clue what he’ll do, but I do think that he’s a unique beast in how he will handle this process.

Everyone agrees that Nash, more than most, deserves to sign with a championship contender, but even some of Nash’s teammates had gut feelings that he’d stay. That’s important to note. Those guys know Nash as a person better than anymore, and it’s proof that his Canadian-bred loyalty will go a long way in the potential for Phoenix re-signing him. In the end, I believe the Suns have a realistic shot at re-signing the two-time MVP if they have a solid plan going into the offseason and into the next few seasons. Then again, if the free agent market is as dry as it appears, maybe he’ll have to jet if he doesn’t think Phoenix is a playoff contender.

I think what we’ve heard on every front is true; the Suns want Nash back and he’ll look for a good reason to stay.  But that doesn’t mean he will. The front office will have to give him reasons to stay early in the free agency signing period.

As for other signings, I think we’ve all agreed that Eric Gordon is the main get after Deron Williams. After that, there are some interesting names that might fit what the Suns need.

Especially if Grant Hill doesn’t return to Phoenix, adding a player like Mayo can go a long way. He’s a do-it-all guard that fits with or without Nash. He can be another lockdown defender alongside Jared Dudley, he can shoot the ball, and he can act as a primary ballhandler capable of shouldering some of that workload.

And this might just be me, but J.R. Smith in a Suns uniform would be exciting in the system that won’t hinder a player of his ability from putting up shots.

I’m not jumping on the Nic Batum or Jamal Crawford trains. How about you?

Schwartz: Crawford, definitely not, at least on a multi-year deal. The only scenario in which I would like him is if Nash returns but they want to save the rest of the powder and go with one-year deals. He could fit in the Shannon Brown instant offense off the bench role, but other than that I’m not feeling him at all.

I do actually like Batum quite a bit, but not for how much he will cost. Really first of all I don’t think there’s any way Portland lets him go shy of a just stupid deal. They dumped all those contracts and certainly have more than enough money to keep a player they really like.

I think Batum would be a great piece on a contender but not necessarily a first or second banana. He defends and can shoot threes and would be a great star role player, but his cost will be much higher than you can bear when the words “role player” are involved in the least bit. If he could be had for a reasonable price, I would be on board.

Now to shift the conversation a bit, one of the most interesting points Lon Babby made on Wednesday was that he hates tanking.

He said, “I’m adamantly opposed to this concept of tanking. I don’t think it’s the right way to go about things. I don’t think it’s good for our franchise, I don’t think it’s good for our fan base, it’s not good for our city. Quite often what it does is I think allows you to mask bad decisions year after year claiming that you’re in this idea that you’re trying to get bad to get good.”

What should we make of that in light of the possibility that Nash leaves and this team needs to rebuild? Do you believe in tanking if this team has no choice but to be bad? Or is it admirable that the Suns could be the one team unwilling to tank?

Zimmerman: I think it’s admirable for Babby and company to be against the mindset of tanking at this point, if simply because you never go into a season expecting to be downright awful.

I mean, do you think the Bobcats planned this season to go as it has? No, but at a certain point in the season where it’s not worth it to win games, I think the philosophy of tanking can begin to be discussed. So whatever Babby says now, I think you absolutely can’t be ready to tank before the year begins, even if Nash isn’t re-signed and the team doesn’t have a big free agent signed in the offseason.

If that’s the case, the Suns still need to put enough of the best one-year contracts together and attempt to win. It’s not fair to the fans to do otherwise. And that’s especially true because this roster isn’t composed of very many young players where the team can use the excuse of player development as a synonym for tanking.

As for later in the year if it all goes downhill and Phoenix is already looking toward next year, then Babby’s anti-tanking comments can be further criticized. And that will have to be later in the year, because I’d argue that the late-season playoff push this year was good for fans’ attitude toward the team as well as business.

Now, I don’t see any other path than to swing for the best basketball team possible.

From your point of view, what should the Suns do if Nash splits town and they aren’t in line for the likes of an Eric Gordon?

Schwartz: It’s funny you bring up the Bobcats. I actually do think the Bobcats went into the season knowing they were going to be at the bottom of the league. Maybe they didn’t set out and make it a goal to be the worst team in NBA history during training camp, but when they traded Stephen Jackson around the draft and dealt Gerald Wallace at the previous trade deadline, they were going for the all-out tank, especially with two lottery picks in their back pocket from the 2011 draft.

As for your question, if Nash leaves and they aren’t in line for a Gordon I would go into all-out savvy move mode. That means I would save my flexibility for next offseason and be disciplined unless I could use the cap space for valuable future assets.

That could mean making the Kurt Thomas trade in reverse whereby the Suns could pick up future picks to take on a bad contract, it could be a lopsided trade to acquire a talented player for nothing, it could involve winning an amnesty auction, any of that kind of stuff. I’d even be willing to take a chance on a guy like Mayo if his deal is reasonable and you feel he can become an important part of your future.

Quality youth and picks would be the mantra, and all mid-level deals would be avoided.

Add it all up, and that would signal the start of the Suns’ rebuilding process. That’s inevitable if Nash leaves, so all moves I would make would revolve around getting solid young players that can help you build a team that can contend once you land that superstar.

OK, time for final thoughts. What do you think goes down this summer in the Valley?

Zimmerman: Oof, way to put me on the spot. If I’d have to guess as an optimist I’d say Phoenix can’t get enough help for Nash to consider returning. That’s not so optimistic but at the end of the day, the free agent class isn’t worth spending all their money upon. Phoenix makes a pickup or two of solid role players, but the Suns hold off on spending this offseason in hopes of hitting the jackpot next offseason.

Oh, and they also make a good draft of a future All-Star despite being at the end of the lottery.

Schwartz: My official stance is that it’s 60/40 Nash returns. In his heart of hearts I think he wants to come back, he just doesn’t want to spend the twilight of his career competing for the eighth seed year in and year out. If the Suns show any signs of being able to put a competitive team around him I think he’s back.

So I’ll predict that the Suns chase Gordon but New Orleans doesn’t let him get away. They will sign an upside guy like Mayo to take some of the creating pressure off Nash and Two Time returns.

But I wouldn’t exactly be willing to go to Vegas to bet on that. It’s such a tough situation to judge and I’m sure variables will emerge as we get closer to July that we haven’t even considered yet. To throw out a wild one, what if the Suns win the Anthony Davis lottery?

If Nash leaves, I think they will make a run at a guy like Gordon and then go into powder-saving mode while investigating the trade market.

So many possibilities exist that I’m entirely unconfident about all those predictions, but I do know that the Phoenix Suns are in for a franchise-shaping offseason no matter how it goes down.

To him, that defines a squad “that’s going to legitimately compete for championships every year.”

“That’s what we aspire to, that’s what we work towards every single day that we’re here,” he said.

In actuality, the Suns are a .500 team after consecutive seasons in which they missed the playoffs with a combined record two games below that mark.

So the billion dollar question is, how do the Suns transform from a perfectly mediocre team with a 38-year-old star to a team that can “legitimately compete for championships,” as they did during the SSOL era?

If I had that answer I would probably be working in the Suns’ front office rather than running a Suns blog, but I can report that during an hour-long chat with the media on Wednesday Babby laid out his vision predicated on patience and making smart decisions to build the Suns “brick by brick” into the aforementioned powerhouse.

The most important point Babby made is that the Suns won’t rush into bad deals just to make a splash because they have money to spend. Or in other words, they will do the exact opposite of the Summer of 2010 post-Amare.

“We have cap space, but cap space doesn’t mean you’re going to go out and sign free agents,” said Babby, whose team has just over $30 million in commitments for next season. “It could also mean that we’re going to make one-sided trades, and there’s a distinct possibility we don’t use our cap room this summer because we’ve worked hard to put ourselves in this position to have this kind of flexibility, to have a range of opportunities, but I am absolutely determined that we’re going to be disciplined in how we approach this because we cannot get ourselves right back in the same spot that we were in by doing bad contracts, not assessing value properly, not making the right choices in terms of personnel.”

Babby later went on to say, “We’re not on any artificial time frame.  If the opportunities are there, we’re going to seize them, but we’re going to make decisions that we feel are going to put us in position to be elite, which again is about competing every year for a championship. I’m not interested in patching it up and getting good for a year or even two without making progress. It may be that we make the decision that we kind of do a little bit of what we did last year and wait a year and keep our powder dry and be as competitive as we can be. We’ll see how that plays out. We have to make the decisions from the standpoint of not only what’s good for us today but what’s going to be good for us tomorrow.”

I can already foresee some of the objections in the comments about this being “just another way for the Suns to be cheap,” but personally I could not agree more with this line of thinking.

We learned in the Summer of Amare what happens when you rush into decisions and make moves just because you have money. All of a sudden you end up with Turkoglu, Warrick, Childress and Frye at bloated numbers.

The Suns will do their due diligence, and if they can add that star power then they will. However, a quick glance at the list of free agents this summer will tell you how unlikely that is.

Babby reiterated Steve Nash’s demand that the Suns’ biggest need is “another dynamic weapon on offense wherever that might be whether it’s at the wing or down low.” This has been an issue since Amare left, and until the Suns find such an offense player to pair with Nash it’s hard to see them getting too much closer to elite status.

Eric Gordon is the one dynamic offensive player who could be available through restricted free agency, and based on the fact that Alvin Gentry has often gone out of his way to heap praise on Gordon in the past, I fully expect the Suns to pursue the Hornets’ guard, as well they should.

But the biggest mistake the Suns could make is to strike out with guys like Gordon and Nicolas Batum (who isn’t leaving Portland I wouldn’t imagine) and then tossing dollars at the next Josh Childress, as Babby clearly understands.

“Look, I’ve taken advantage of this situation as an agent,” Babby said. “When you’ve got a team that can’t get what they want, can’t get their first choice, and the pressure builds to do something you get teams to make some very bad decisions, and we’re not going to do that because I’m not going to sell false hope.”

After pointing out how much the Suns’ players said they enjoyed playing in Phoenix during their exit interviews, Babby also addressed “some skepticism about our ability to attract free agents, which I was an agent, and I don’t get it why anyone wouldn’t want to play here and I don’t believe for one minute that they don’t want to play here.”

We will soon find out, and if nobody wants to play here and nothing else works out then the Suns will duplicate their 2011-12 strategy and sign one-year deals to delay their cap bonanza for another offseason.

In the meantime the Suns will take advantage of all the other potential options for teams with cap space, which includes making lopsided trades with teams desperate to dump money and potentially even winning an amnesty auction.

Whereas during the crucial summer two seasons ago the Suns seemed to enter without a plan once Amare fled and flung their money around recklessly, this time they know exactly how they want to fill their cap room if not the specifics.

The NBA is a star’s league, and a glance at the current elite teams (think Miami, Chicago, OKC, San Antonio, the Lakers) shows multiple stars at the top for each squad.

That the Suns plan on being fiscally responsible and taking their time to make smart, savvy moves is fantastic, but along the way they must add another dynamic player to depart the treadmill of mediocrity and accelerate their return to the ranks of the elite.

And 1

Along with his comments on Steve Nash’s situation that Zim wrote about yesterday, Babby discussed the following potential personnel moves:

• It is “quite likely, if not certain” that the Suns will match any offer to restricted free agent Robin Lopez. It kind of sounded like he was trying to send a message through the media to scare off other teams from making an attractive offer to Robin, so I would not be surprised if this becomes less certain once an offer reaches a certain threshold.
• The team will extend a qualifying offer to Aaron Brooks to preserve his rights. He cannot be dealt in a sign-and-trade because he wasn’t on the roster last season.
• Babby would be “disappointed” if Grant Hill wore another team’s uniform, but he was fairly confident that if Hill does not retire he will be wearing purple and orange next fall.
• The Suns will consider using the amnesty clause if it helps them make a corresponding advantageous move. If they end up saving their powder for next offseason, it would make sense to save it for Childress down the road at that point.

It’s probably because the Suns haven’t been in this position for a long time.

Eight years ago, Bryan Colangelo was the general manager in charge of shipping off Stephon Marbury and Penny Hardaway to the New York Knicks for scraps. It initially drew criticism, but the move opened enough cap space for the next one that still stands as Colangelo’s most brilliant pull as an NBA executive.

He signed Steve Nash, and that generated wins, glory and eight years of knowing that, at the very least, the Suns would put a product on the floor that wouldn’t embarrass itself.

With Nash once again a free agent, that’s not a guarantee.

“It’s interesting,” forward Jared Dudley said. “I think four or five guys are under contract, so it could look like a whole new team. Or it could bring a majority of the guys back with a couple tweaks.”

General manager Lance Blanks and president of basketball operations Lon Babby now sit in the same chair occupied by Colangelo in the offseason of 2004.

Like Colangelo then, they put their faith in taking aim at one offseason, where having money to spend would mark a new era in the franchise and a defining point in their own careers. Of course, now the question is whether or not they can make a defining move without their plan backfiring.

That again starts with Nash.

This time around is more complicated, and it has the potential to end in a much uglier fashion.

Here’s all that remains certain at this moment.

Marcin Gortat, Jared Dudley, Channing Frye, Josh Childress, Hakim Warrick and Markieff Morris are all under contract with Phoenix. Sebastian Telfair has another year on his contract, although it’s not guaranteed.

Shannon Brown could have upped his price tag under his one-year deal this past season, while Robin Lopez and Ronnie Price are likely gone. That’s not to mention restricted free agent Aaron Brooks, who Blanks kept tabs on during his tour in China, nor Michael Redd, who could be drawn to re-sign with the Suns for their training staff alone.

Grant Hill must face the music about whether his body will hold up to contribute to any team, be it the Suns or otherwise.

And Nash? The two-time MVP will weigh all options, but it’s quite unclear which domino will be the first to fall. In one sense, the unselfish assist man could recruit a big-name free agent target to join him in Phoenix. In another, Nash won’t re-sign with the Suns if they aren’t assured of nabbing a high-profile teammate.

This is the first chance to see how the recently-acquired Babby and Blanks will plan out and aggressively pursue the free agent market, one that looks unsettlingly dry after Deron Williams and Eric Gordon are scooped up.

How they handle Nash, meanwhile chasing down other talents, could be a fragile process as well.

And to that, the judged success in this offseason of intrigue depends upon what, if any, seismic moves Babby and Blanks can shake up in the draft and in free agent signings, because what Phoenix has in the cupboard that’s assured isn’t going to make a difference unless that happens.

In players like Dudley, Gortat and Frye, there are solid pieces to a good team already locked into contracts for next season. Yet, there’s not a lot of expectation that those three, nor Morris, will expand their games to any great deal a la Amar’e Stoudemire or Joe Johnson when Nash arrived in 2004.

That puts all of the pressure on the front office to make moves — big ones at that.

That dark hole Suns fans are staring into? Nobody knows whether there’s a light at the other end of it.

“It’s no fun,” head coach Alvin Gentry said of being left out of the playoffs. “I don’t like not playing. It makes for a long, long, long summer when you’re not playing at the end of April.”

If the Suns don’t have some tricks up their sleeves during this summer of uncertainty, they’ll be seeing a lot more just like it.

And an eight-year run of fans having faith in the franchise will be a distant memory.

In years past the above statement meant picking the Suns just outside the playoffs or at the very bottom of the West playoff picture.

This year it means picking the Suns at the very bottom of the West, period.

That’s where ESPN’s John Hollinger has predicted the Suns to finish, 14th to be exact, just above the CP3-less New Orleans Hornets. It’s understandable that expectations are low but such a prediction must be a bit jarring for Suns fans so accustomed to at least competing for a playoff spot, especially considering where Hollinger sees the franchise heading:

“It took the Suns just two offseasons to completely dismantle a championship contender, although 2010 was the big one. By chasing away Steve Kerr and David Griffin, letting Amare Stoudemire walk, and then spending the money on Josh Childress and Hakim Warrick, they sealed their fate. A year from now, after Steve Nash and Grant Hill flee for Gotham, they’ll be a 15-win team with virtually no young talent. …

This looks like the inverse of the Hornets: a team that will finish maybe 12th in offensive efficiency and in the bottom five defensively. I can’t see them getting back to the playoffs.”

This year’s edition of The Basketball Prospectus, written by Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle, does not inspire much confidence either. (Editor’s Note: I contributed a paragraph in the Suns section, and you can buy the book for $9.98 here.)

Their projection system called SCHOENE thinks only slightly better about the Suns, estimating a 27-39 season that would put them 13th in the West. TeamRankings.com‘s projection is similar, placing the Suns 12th in the West with 29.4 wins and 36.6 losses as well as a 36.1 percent chance of reaching the postseason.

Moreover, SCHOENE projects the Suns’ offense to decline from ninth last season all the way down to 16th with an offensive rating of 108.7 and it sees their defense dropping from 25th to 28th thanks to a pitiful defensive rating of 111.7. Clearly SCHOENE does not believe in Elston Turner’s game plan.

During the summer I wrote that during the Nash era the Suns have only had to feature a top-20 defense to be a playoff team. However, that was only true because before 2010-11 a Nash-led offense paced the league in offensive efficiency for nine consecutive seasons. Even more astounding, Nash has led the five best offenses of the last 20 years when comparing his team’s offensive efficiency to the league average, three of which have come in Phoenix.

The Suns could win and win big (maybe not playoff big, but regular season big if nothing else) with a mediocre offense when they could score at a historic pace. The Suns’ offense has looked anything but historic during the preseason.

The StatsCube article said this has nothing to do with a Nash decline since the Suns’ 111.1 points per 100 possessions with Nash on the court last season would have led the league. Yet the Suns scored just 99.9 points per 100 when Nash sat, which would rank fourth-worst in the league.

Considering that was done with Goran Dragic and Aaron Brooks as the backup point guards and this year the Suns are looking to Ronnie Price and Sebastian Telfair, it’s no wonder Hollinger is so pessimistic.

I fully expect the Suns to improve defensively, potentially back into the top 20, but it’s the offense that must prove SCHOENE wrong and remain elite for the Suns to make these predictions look silly.

Suns’ offseason earns D+

ESPN’s Chad Ford liked the Suns’ offseason about as much as Hollinger likes their chances this season, as the professor handed the Suns a D+ for their effort, largely blaming owner Robert Sarver:

“The sun continues to set in Phoenix. Steve Nash, the heart and soul of the Suns, is still plugging away at age 37, but the rest of his mates from the original run-and-gun Suns are long gone. The 39-year-old Grant Hill is back to provide support and big man Marcin Gortat was a very good pickup last season.

The rest of the team, however, is a mess.

Owner Robert Sarver made most of the quagmire himself. When he wasn’t ripping up a successful roster, he was alienating players this summer with his hardline stance during the lockout. Sarver has since come out claiming he was actually a dove — a reversal that only a politician could pull off with a straight face.

The Suns’ free-agent haul this year won’t do much to inspire Suns fans. It consisted of Shannon Brown, Ronnie Price and Sebastian Telfair. Of the three, Brown is a legit pickup, albeit a role player. Their draft pick, Markieff Morris, is big and can shoot, but the chances of him being a starter in the NBA, let alone a franchise savior, are slim.

At some point the Suns will get around to realizing they should have traded Nash two years ago when he still had enormous value. At this point, with Nash in the last year of his deal, they won’t get much. When he leaves, the team will likely be among the worst in the NBA.”

But there’s some good news

ESPN Insider David Thorpe tabbed Gortat as one of his five breakout players along with James Harden, Ty Lawson, Tiago Splitter and Patrick Patterson.

Hollinger’s 2012 projection for Gortat has him scoring 14.7 points per game, grabbing 12.5 boards per contest and compiling a 16.66 PER.

Here’s what Thorpe has to say about The Polish Hammer:

“Gortat could make a case that he’s the most underrated center in the NBA. But now that he’s the full-time starter in Phoenix, he’ll get his chance he is a top-10 center. His numbers could stagnate if Steve Nash is traded, but other than that, I see a steady diet of pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop with him. He’s one of the few centers who can do both.

And if given full starter’s minutes, he should rank among the top defensive rebounders in the league. It makes sense for Phoenix to feature him for two reasons: The Suns can see if he’s, indeed, the center of their future. Or perhaps he’s someone who can be traded to a contending team needing a center in exchange for a bevy of young players and picks. Either way, it should be a second straight ‘career year’ for Gortat.”

And 1

Even the sports books are sleeping on the Suns.

The over/under line on Phoenix regular season wins was set at 28.5 in the NBA future odds section of SportsInteraction.com. The site also tabs the Suns as 75:1 underdogs to win the NBA championship and 40:1 underdogs to win the West. Only five West teams face longer odds than that. …

Marc Stein’s NBA power rankings rank the Suns 22nd, fourth worst in the West.

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No such charges can be levied against the Suns’ front office this offseason as all moves have been made with one goal in mind: maintaining 2012 cap space.

That’s why the Suns plan to sign Shannon Brown and Sebastian Telfair to one-year deals on Friday, and it’s why they have offered Grant Hill a one-year deal for $5.5 million but are hesitant to go to two. Brown will make $3.5 mil for his year of service and Telfair $1.5 mil, although Paul Coro reports he also has a partial guarantee for the following campaign.

This part of the plan makes sense. Even if the Suns don’t have a chance at the Big Three free agents Dwight Howard, Chris Paul and Deron Williams — and I don’t think they do — cap space under the new CBA is still so valuable.

The fear is the Suns spend just to spend and once again waste it all on role players like they did last year, but aside from the shot at landing elite talent it opens up opportunities to post a winning bid for a talented amnesty player or perhaps take on a crummy contract in return for a king’s ransom in draft picks (a la the Kurt Thomas trade, just in reverse). Cap space, if employed correctly, is one of the best ways the Suns can rebuild.

Therefore, it should be considered holy and as much as everyone in this city would like to see Grant Hill back, they just can’t afford to up their offer in years.

However, today’s deals effectively end the Suns’ offseason pending Hill’s decision and any potential minimum additions. Our ValleyoftheSuns writers in today’s 3-on-3 were unanimous concerning the Suns’ need for a go-to scorer but as I figured it just wasn’t going to happen when the best you can offer is one year and $5 million and you lack trade assets.

Now we know for sure that the closest thing the Suns will get to acquiring a go-to scorer this offseason is Shannon Brown, which is to say they aren’t acquiring one.

That should not be seen as a criticism of the signing. I was going to be at least moderately pleased with any deal that starts out with the words “one year,” and to grab Brown for $3.5 million is solid value. He will provide energy and excitement and his game fits the Suns’ style. He is no go-to player, but he is a savvy pickup.

Same goes with Telfair. Not much risk when you sign for less than two million dollars, and the Suns were not going to find anyone too much better for the salary they had to offer.

But now that we know what the Suns will look like this season I wonder why they don’t decide to start the rebuilding process a year early. Sure, this team can be fun and exciting and if things break right they very well might be a playoff team or at least push for a berth. It would be fun to watch Nash lead such an unheralded squad to an underdog playoff berth, but why play for a No. 7 or 8 seed at best in the loaded West when rebuilding is right around the corner?

The Suns’ brutal January schedule could crystallize the scenario. Do you see more than one or two wins the second half of the month? If the Suns fall behind big by February, the team could reverse course on a Nash trade and prepare for the 2012 rebuild early.

I like the moves the Suns made today. They needed wing scoring and a backup point guard, and they acquired both at a cost that will not affect their future. It also eliminates any need for Aaron Brooks this season and should put his rights firmly on the trading block when he returns to the country.

But, assuming the Suns don’t have a blockbuster up their sleeve that nobody sees, this squad is no better than a low-tier West playoff team.

Today’s moves show how serious the Suns are about waiting until 2012 to make their move. So long as that’s the case, why not just go all in for 2012 by initiating the rebuilding process now?

With free agency set to kick off in earnest on Friday, ValleyoftheSuns writers Michael Schwartz, Mike Schmitz and Ryan Weisert discuss what the Suns need during the free agency period, unheralded potential pickups and how the Aaron Brooks situation complicates matters.

1. What is the Suns’ biggest need in free agency?

Michael Schwartz: The Suns need a go-to scorer who can take over in crunch time and relieve some of the offensive burden from Nash. The absence of such a player (no, Hedo Turkoglu did not fit this bill) is likely a big reason the Suns slipped to ninth last season in the offensive efficiency rankings they have long owned. Nash can still control almost everything on offense, but he needs a potent weapon alongside him for the Suns’ offense to return to the ranks of the elite.

Mike Schmitz: A scoring guard. Outside of the fact that his birth certificate reads 1974, there’s a reason Steve Nash wears down as the season progresses. The 37-year-old has no Robin in the backcourt. Last season the Suns thought Hedo Turkoglu or Vince Carter could be that guy. In hindsight, that notion was laughable. Instead of attempting to turn damaged goods into a No. 2 option, the Suns need to land a guard who can get to create his own shot, get to the line or find an open shooter. The Suns have enough role players and a decent frontline with Gortat and Frye, but they continue to lack that one-two perimeter punch.

Ryan Weisert: A scoring guard. With the Suns planning to waive Vince Carter, they will need to find a two guard who can penetrate and shoot from outside. This type of player would take some of the playmaking responsibility off Nash. The ability to shoot from outside is most important because it will stretch the defense and keep the lane clear for pick-and-roll penetration.

2. Name an unheralded free agent the Suns should pursue.

Michael Schwartz: It’s a huge risk, but I’m partial to Michael Redd. No, he won’t be the 20 ppg scorer he was earlier this decade, but if his knees hold up there’s no reason he can’t be a reliable shooter. Plus, if there is any medical staff that can aid Redd’s recovery it would be Aaron Nelson and his warlocks. Best of all he would come cheap on a one-year deal as he seeks to rebuild his value.

Mike Schmitz: Ideally the Suns would land Amare 2.0 to pair up with Gortat. But with a thin free agent market and little money to spend, that’s not an option, so the Suns have to bargain shop. The guy I like most is Marcus Thornton. As I outlined in this video, he can fill it up in a variety of ways. He has deep range, can shoot off the bounce and get to the hoop. He may be out of the Suns’ price range, however. If he is, I like cheaper options like veteran Willie Green, swingman Reggie Williams, and maybe even Shannon Brown. But ideally, Thornton would be the guy.

Ryan Weisert: I’ll go with Josh Howard. Although he’s not a two guard like I advocated for above, he can create his own shot, get to the rim, and he’s played the
“second banana scorer” before (to Dirk). Howard is trying to come back from exile and injury in Washington, so he should be willing to take a mid-level (or cheaper) deal for one year.

3. True or False: Brooks’ China contract hurts the Suns

Michael Schwartz: True, if for no other reason than this would be the offseason to trade him so his situation is resolved going into next summer. One more year to allow him to rebuild value (for a possible trade for Phoenix and a contract extension for Brooks) would have benefited both parties, and the Suns could have taken one more long look before deciding whether to commit to him or kick him to the curb. On top of that the team must now seek out another backup point guard after trading their former backup plus a pick for Brooks.

Mike Schmitz: At first glance, it seems Brooks being gone helps the Suns as they don’t have to make a decision on him immediately. But with Phoenix having to place over a $5 million cap hold for Brooks, he hurts the Suns’ chances at acquiring a mid-level type guy this offseason if they indeed didn’t intend to bring Brooks back. He’s not the difference between landing a big-name free agent and missing out, but he does keep Phoenix’s hands tied a bit. Sure that hold might be worth it if the Suns want to keep him around, but I don’t see him as the point guard of the future to succeed Nash, and I assume the Suns’ front office doesn’t either.

Ryan Weisert: False. Brooks’ departure to China is just further proof that he is unhappy with his situation in the NBA. He was angry that Houston didn’t pay him, and he didn’t seem to love the move to Phoenix last season. I would prefer Brooks was not on the roster if and when Nash leaves, so that the front office is not tempted to call him the point guard of the future. The Suns should renounce his rights and use the cap space elsewhere.

Much has been made about the Suns’ potential for gobs of cap space next offseason, perhaps enough to sign a pair of max free agents if it comes to that, but to borrow a popular sports cliche let’s take things one season at a time.

The Suns have already made clear that their first order of business involves re-signing Grant Hill. Since he’s been working out with the Suns and has stated his desire to return, Phoenix is definitely the frontrunner. However, NBA.com’s David Aldridge reported that the Clippers, Bulls and Knicks are also in the hunt for Hill’s services.

You may remember that Hill nearly signed with the Knicks as a free agent two years ago. He has familiarity with Mike D’Antoni from their year together in the desert, and of course he played three seasons with Amare Stoudemire. His defense would be a welcome addition in the Big Apple.

Although Hill isn’t the kind of shooter many think the Bulls need to add, he would fit into their defensive-minded system just fine, and the Clippers could be a small forward away from really making some noise in the West. His veteran presence would make a huge difference on such a young Clippers team.

If Hill leaves, the Suns will certainly pursue another rotation wing. They likely will even if he stays, but that would give the Suns the same glut of five wings for four rotation spots that led to Josh Childress’ exile on the bench last season.

Still, The Arizona Republic reported that such a wing and a backup point guard make up the rest of Phoenix’s offseason shopping list after Hill.

The wing will ideally be a shooting guard who can become the go-to guy the Suns lacked all last season without Amare Stoudemire and then even more severely once Jason Richardson departed.

However, the market does not appear to be long on go-to guys willing to play on a one-year deal for no more than the $5 million allowed by the mid-level exception (the Suns project to be over the cap with Hill and Aaron Brooks’ cap holds). Therefore, it’s likely the Suns will lack that presence once again and rely largely on Steve Nash to make the offense go.

HoopsWorld reported that the Suns are one of many teams kicking the tires on Jamal Crawford, along with the Nets, Hornets, Bulls, Heat, Lakers, Mavericks and Trail Blazers.

In some ways Crawford would be an excellent fit as he would provide instant offense off the bench (the kind of punch last year’s bench unit lacked in a big way), could play both guard spots and is the type of player who can take over down the stretch as the Suns know all too well.

Although Crawford scored just 14.2 ppg last season, he scored at least 17 per game six of the previous seven seasons for four different teams.

Crawford’s defense doesn’t leave much to be desired, but the real issue is likely his price tag, especially with all those teams chasing. For one year at the midlevel, this would be an ideal signing, but a 31-year-old Jamal Crawford is not somebody the Suns should be investing in long term.

The Republic reported that the Suns were interested in Kings restricted shooting guard Marcus Thornton, who is basically Crawford seven years younger. For all those same reasons I think Thornton would be a great fit for this year, but he also is not exactly the kind of player the Suns should be locking up long term, and the Kings likely won’t let him get away after he thrived in Sacto last season.

Michael Redd in theory would be a solid pick-up, but there is tons of inherent risk in a player who has played 61 games total the past three seasons due to knee injuries.

Redd is exactly the kind of guy who would take a one-year, low money deal (what better place for a shooting guard to rebuild his value than next to Steve Nash?), but it would be ridiculous to think Redd will come right in and be the All-Star he used to be, or anything close to it.

With the Suns’ miracle-working training staff I wouldn’t mind the team rolling the dice with Redd, but he would be most certainly be a gamble.

The Suns’ other hole to fill is at the backup point guard spot, a position where they have been seeking help pretty much since Steve Nash returned in 2004. Aaron Brooks was supposed to be the man for this role, but of course he is stuck in China for the next few months with only his $5 mil cap hold left to remind Suns fans of him.

However, if I ran the Suns, I would not make finding a backup point guard a huge priority. Sure, it would be nice, but they have a guy in-house in Zabian Dowdell who did a reasonable job last season in his limited opportunities as the backup point guard. Z certainly has his limitations (shooting in particular), but he can run the team and defend pretty adeptly.

In theory, Brooks will be back a couple months into the season, which gives Dowdell that first chunk of the year to prove whether or not he’s a long-term answer as a backup point guard.

If they sign another legit point guard, they are basically saying goodbye to Brooks and hoping they can flip him into some sort of asset when he returns stateside, and I doubt too many teams will be clamoring for AB midway through the year.

So in summation the Suns could really use a shooting guard who can play some one, be the go-to guy in crunch time, create off the dribble, play defense and come at the low, low price of one year and $5 million.

So long as that player does not exist, the Suns will likely use this free agency period to sign a player or two who can provide some of those desired attributes.

And 1

• Schmitz and I participated in today’s 5-on-5 on the Suns, which included questions on which player the 2011-12 season is most important for (Schmitz and I both said Robin Lopez), who the most intriguing Sun is and whether the shortened season will help or hurt the Suns.
• The NBA schedule will be officially released tomorrow. Paul Coro got his hands on a copy ahead of time and reported that the Suns will miss all of the East’s stars at home and play three games in a row twice.
• Jared Dudley will be hosting a meet and greet on Tuesday from 6:30-7:30 p.m. at the Majerle’s Grill in downtown Phoenix. The first 50 people to arrive will receive a free “Jared Dudley Grilled Chicken” sandwich.

The Suns plan to waive Vince Carter to save $14.3 million. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

Vince Carter was never going to play this season for the Phoenix Suns at an $18.3 cap number, the only question was whether the Suns would find a suitable trade partner before waiving his largely non-guaranteed contract.

A Carter trade does not appear to be in the cards, however, as ESPN’s Marc Stein and Chris Broussard reported Sunday that the Suns will indeed waive Carter within the first 72 hours of free agency before his 2011-12 salary becomes fully guaranteed. Carter’s contract calls for $4 million of guaranteed money, but the Suns can forego paying the remaining $14.3 million by releasing him.

By ValleyoftheSuns’ salary numbers, the Suns will be on the hook for about $53.5 million in salaries after waiving Vince, but that number is over $64 million when you add the cap holds on Grant Hill and Aaron Brooks into the equation. When you consider both players will likely play for something closer to the $3 million-plus range (if Brooks plays at all), that puts Phoenix at $60 million (without including Markieff Morris’ deal).

Although we don’t know exactly what the new luxury tax will be, if it’s close to the $70.3 million from last season then most any deal involving taking back salary for Carter would have pushed the Suns into the tax unless the deal involved taking on pretty lengthy contracts for less dollars, which the Suns don’t want to do since their long-term plan is predicated on 2012 cap space.

Therefore, deciding to waive Carter was not exactly the most difficult post-lockout decision this front office will make.

Carter averaged a career-low 13.5 points per game as a Sun to go along with 3.6 boards and 1.6 assists per game while shooting 42.2 percent from the field. He exploded for big scoring games at times but too often was plagued by inconsistency and inaccurate shooting with Phoenix. Vinsanity never did become the go-to scorer the Suns had hoped they were acquiring and he was replaced by Jared Dudley in the starting lineup late in the year, making this move a foregone conclusion more or less.

The ESPN report included a couple more juicy tidbits on the Suns’ thinking:

The Suns’ plan, sources said, is to bring back Hill if possible and make a playoff run this season, then proceed to the summer of 2012 armed with salary-cap space to make major upgrades to the roster.

Sources said the Suns have yet to receive any indication from star guard Steve Nash that he wants to be dealt to a contender, which is why management clings to the hope that the two-time MVP — who is also headed for free agency in July 2012 — will retire a Sun.

This is essentially the plan the Suns spoke of in the aftermath of 2010-11. We know 2012 is the year the Suns plan on making wholesale upgrades and we know they do not want to start rebuilding now without Nash to plan for that future.

So long as they don’t trade him, Nash should make the Suns good enough to contend for a playoff spot throughout the season. The downside is that would prevent the team from earning a top-10 draft pick that could be a major piece of their rebuilding project, but so long as the Suns do commit to keeping him and bringing back Hill they owe it to those vets to try to stir up the magic one more time.

Toward their goal of trying to win one more year (at least) with Nash, The Arizona Republic reported that the team is interested in adding a wing and a backup point guard to the roster. It will be interesting to see if the Suns offer anything more than a one-year deal as they pursue free agents in the hopes of preserving their voluminous amount of 2012 cap space.