In years past the above statement meant picking the Suns just outside the playoffs or at the very bottom of the West playoff picture.

This year it means picking the Suns at the very bottom of the West, period.

That’s where ESPN’s John Hollinger has predicted the Suns to finish, 14th to be exact, just above the CP3-less New Orleans Hornets. It’s understandable that expectations are low but such a prediction must be a bit jarring for Suns fans so accustomed to at least competing for a playoff spot, especially considering where Hollinger sees the franchise heading:

“It took the Suns just two offseasons to completely dismantle a championship contender, although 2010 was the big one. By chasing away Steve Kerr and David Griffin, letting Amare Stoudemire walk, and then spending the money on Josh Childress and Hakim Warrick, they sealed their fate. A year from now, after Steve Nash and Grant Hill flee for Gotham, they’ll be a 15-win team with virtually no young talent. …

This looks like the inverse of the Hornets: a team that will finish maybe 12th in offensive efficiency and in the bottom five defensively. I can’t see them getting back to the playoffs.”

This year’s edition of The Basketball Prospectus, written by Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle, does not inspire much confidence either. (Editor’s Note: I contributed a paragraph in the Suns section, and you can buy the book for $9.98 here.)

Their projection system called SCHOENE thinks only slightly better about the Suns, estimating a 27-39 season that would put them 13th in the West. TeamRankings.com‘s projection is similar, placing the Suns 12th in the West with 29.4 wins and 36.6 losses as well as a 36.1 percent chance of reaching the postseason.

Moreover, SCHOENE projects the Suns’ offense to decline from ninth last season all the way down to 16th with an offensive rating of 108.7 and it sees their defense dropping from 25th to 28th thanks to a pitiful defensive rating of 111.7. Clearly SCHOENE does not believe in Elston Turner’s game plan.

During the summer I wrote that during the Nash era the Suns have only had to feature a top-20 defense to be a playoff team. However, that was only true because before 2010-11 a Nash-led offense paced the league in offensive efficiency for nine consecutive seasons. Even more astounding, Nash has led the five best offenses of the last 20 years when comparing his team’s offensive efficiency to the league average, three of which have come in Phoenix.

The Suns could win and win big (maybe not playoff big, but regular season big if nothing else) with a mediocre offense when they could score at a historic pace. The Suns’ offense has looked anything but historic during the preseason.

The StatsCube article said this has nothing to do with a Nash decline since the Suns’ 111.1 points per 100 possessions with Nash on the court last season would have led the league. Yet the Suns scored just 99.9 points per 100 when Nash sat, which would rank fourth-worst in the league.

Considering that was done with Goran Dragic and Aaron Brooks as the backup point guards and this year the Suns are looking to Ronnie Price and Sebastian Telfair, it’s no wonder Hollinger is so pessimistic.

I fully expect the Suns to improve defensively, potentially back into the top 20, but it’s the offense that must prove SCHOENE wrong and remain elite for the Suns to make these predictions look silly.

Suns’ offseason earns D+

ESPN’s Chad Ford liked the Suns’ offseason about as much as Hollinger likes their chances this season, as the professor handed the Suns a D+ for their effort, largely blaming owner Robert Sarver:

“The sun continues to set in Phoenix. Steve Nash, the heart and soul of the Suns, is still plugging away at age 37, but the rest of his mates from the original run-and-gun Suns are long gone. The 39-year-old Grant Hill is back to provide support and big man Marcin Gortat was a very good pickup last season.

The rest of the team, however, is a mess.

Owner Robert Sarver made most of the quagmire himself. When he wasn’t ripping up a successful roster, he was alienating players this summer with his hardline stance during the lockout. Sarver has since come out claiming he was actually a dove — a reversal that only a politician could pull off with a straight face.

The Suns’ free-agent haul this year won’t do much to inspire Suns fans. It consisted of Shannon Brown, Ronnie Price and Sebastian Telfair. Of the three, Brown is a legit pickup, albeit a role player. Their draft pick, Markieff Morris, is big and can shoot, but the chances of him being a starter in the NBA, let alone a franchise savior, are slim.

At some point the Suns will get around to realizing they should have traded Nash two years ago when he still had enormous value. At this point, with Nash in the last year of his deal, they won’t get much. When he leaves, the team will likely be among the worst in the NBA.”

But there’s some good news

ESPN Insider David Thorpe tabbed Gortat as one of his five breakout players along with James Harden, Ty Lawson, Tiago Splitter and Patrick Patterson.

Hollinger’s 2012 projection for Gortat has him scoring 14.7 points per game, grabbing 12.5 boards per contest and compiling a 16.66 PER.

Here’s what Thorpe has to say about The Polish Hammer:

“Gortat could make a case that he’s the most underrated center in the NBA. But now that he’s the full-time starter in Phoenix, he’ll get his chance he is a top-10 center. His numbers could stagnate if Steve Nash is traded, but other than that, I see a steady diet of pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop with him. He’s one of the few centers who can do both.

And if given full starter’s minutes, he should rank among the top defensive rebounders in the league. It makes sense for Phoenix to feature him for two reasons: The Suns can see if he’s, indeed, the center of their future. Or perhaps he’s someone who can be traded to a contending team needing a center in exchange for a bevy of young players and picks. Either way, it should be a second straight ‘career year’ for Gortat.”

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Even the sports books are sleeping on the Suns.

The over/under line on Phoenix regular season wins was set at 28.5 in the NBA future odds section of SportsInteraction.com. The site also tabs the Suns as 75:1 underdogs to win the NBA championship and 40:1 underdogs to win the West. Only five West teams face longer odds than that. …

Marc Stein’s NBA power rankings rank the Suns 22nd, fourth worst in the West.

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No such charges can be levied against the Suns’ front office this offseason as all moves have been made with one goal in mind: maintaining 2012 cap space.

That’s why the Suns plan to sign Shannon Brown and Sebastian Telfair to one-year deals on Friday, and it’s why they have offered Grant Hill a one-year deal for $5.5 million but are hesitant to go to two. Brown will make $3.5 mil for his year of service and Telfair $1.5 mil, although Paul Coro reports he also has a partial guarantee for the following campaign.

This part of the plan makes sense. Even if the Suns don’t have a chance at the Big Three free agents Dwight Howard, Chris Paul and Deron Williams — and I don’t think they do — cap space under the new CBA is still so valuable.

The fear is the Suns spend just to spend and once again waste it all on role players like they did last year, but aside from the shot at landing elite talent it opens up opportunities to post a winning bid for a talented amnesty player or perhaps take on a crummy contract in return for a king’s ransom in draft picks (a la the Kurt Thomas trade, just in reverse). Cap space, if employed correctly, is one of the best ways the Suns can rebuild.

Therefore, it should be considered holy and as much as everyone in this city would like to see Grant Hill back, they just can’t afford to up their offer in years.

However, today’s deals effectively end the Suns’ offseason pending Hill’s decision and any potential minimum additions. Our ValleyoftheSuns writers in today’s 3-on-3 were unanimous concerning the Suns’ need for a go-to scorer but as I figured it just wasn’t going to happen when the best you can offer is one year and $5 million and you lack trade assets.

Now we know for sure that the closest thing the Suns will get to acquiring a go-to scorer this offseason is Shannon Brown, which is to say they aren’t acquiring one.

That should not be seen as a criticism of the signing. I was going to be at least moderately pleased with any deal that starts out with the words “one year,” and to grab Brown for $3.5 million is solid value. He will provide energy and excitement and his game fits the Suns’ style. He is no go-to player, but he is a savvy pickup.

Same goes with Telfair. Not much risk when you sign for less than two million dollars, and the Suns were not going to find anyone too much better for the salary they had to offer.

But now that we know what the Suns will look like this season I wonder why they don’t decide to start the rebuilding process a year early. Sure, this team can be fun and exciting and if things break right they very well might be a playoff team or at least push for a berth. It would be fun to watch Nash lead such an unheralded squad to an underdog playoff berth, but why play for a No. 7 or 8 seed at best in the loaded West when rebuilding is right around the corner?

The Suns’ brutal January schedule could crystallize the scenario. Do you see more than one or two wins the second half of the month? If the Suns fall behind big by February, the team could reverse course on a Nash trade and prepare for the 2012 rebuild early.

I like the moves the Suns made today. They needed wing scoring and a backup point guard, and they acquired both at a cost that will not affect their future. It also eliminates any need for Aaron Brooks this season and should put his rights firmly on the trading block when he returns to the country.

But, assuming the Suns don’t have a blockbuster up their sleeve that nobody sees, this squad is no better than a low-tier West playoff team.

Today’s moves show how serious the Suns are about waiting until 2012 to make their move. So long as that’s the case, why not just go all in for 2012 by initiating the rebuilding process now?

With free agency set to kick off in earnest on Friday, ValleyoftheSuns writers Michael Schwartz, Mike Schmitz and Ryan Weisert discuss what the Suns need during the free agency period, unheralded potential pickups and how the Aaron Brooks situation complicates matters.

1. What is the Suns’ biggest need in free agency?

Michael Schwartz: The Suns need a go-to scorer who can take over in crunch time and relieve some of the offensive burden from Nash. The absence of such a player (no, Hedo Turkoglu did not fit this bill) is likely a big reason the Suns slipped to ninth last season in the offensive efficiency rankings they have long owned. Nash can still control almost everything on offense, but he needs a potent weapon alongside him for the Suns’ offense to return to the ranks of the elite.

Mike Schmitz: A scoring guard. Outside of the fact that his birth certificate reads 1974, there’s a reason Steve Nash wears down as the season progresses. The 37-year-old has no Robin in the backcourt. Last season the Suns thought Hedo Turkoglu or Vince Carter could be that guy. In hindsight, that notion was laughable. Instead of attempting to turn damaged goods into a No. 2 option, the Suns need to land a guard who can get to create his own shot, get to the line or find an open shooter. The Suns have enough role players and a decent frontline with Gortat and Frye, but they continue to lack that one-two perimeter punch.

Ryan Weisert: A scoring guard. With the Suns planning to waive Vince Carter, they will need to find a two guard who can penetrate and shoot from outside. This type of player would take some of the playmaking responsibility off Nash. The ability to shoot from outside is most important because it will stretch the defense and keep the lane clear for pick-and-roll penetration.

2. Name an unheralded free agent the Suns should pursue.

Michael Schwartz: It’s a huge risk, but I’m partial to Michael Redd. No, he won’t be the 20 ppg scorer he was earlier this decade, but if his knees hold up there’s no reason he can’t be a reliable shooter. Plus, if there is any medical staff that can aid Redd’s recovery it would be Aaron Nelson and his warlocks. Best of all he would come cheap on a one-year deal as he seeks to rebuild his value.

Mike Schmitz: Ideally the Suns would land Amare 2.0 to pair up with Gortat. But with a thin free agent market and little money to spend, that’s not an option, so the Suns have to bargain shop. The guy I like most is Marcus Thornton. As I outlined in this video, he can fill it up in a variety of ways. He has deep range, can shoot off the bounce and get to the hoop. He may be out of the Suns’ price range, however. If he is, I like cheaper options like veteran Willie Green, swingman Reggie Williams, and maybe even Shannon Brown. But ideally, Thornton would be the guy.

Ryan Weisert: I’ll go with Josh Howard. Although he’s not a two guard like I advocated for above, he can create his own shot, get to the rim, and he’s played the
“second banana scorer” before (to Dirk). Howard is trying to come back from exile and injury in Washington, so he should be willing to take a mid-level (or cheaper) deal for one year.

3. True or False: Brooks’ China contract hurts the Suns

Michael Schwartz: True, if for no other reason than this would be the offseason to trade him so his situation is resolved going into next summer. One more year to allow him to rebuild value (for a possible trade for Phoenix and a contract extension for Brooks) would have benefited both parties, and the Suns could have taken one more long look before deciding whether to commit to him or kick him to the curb. On top of that the team must now seek out another backup point guard after trading their former backup plus a pick for Brooks.

Mike Schmitz: At first glance, it seems Brooks being gone helps the Suns as they don’t have to make a decision on him immediately. But with Phoenix having to place over a $5 million cap hold for Brooks, he hurts the Suns’ chances at acquiring a mid-level type guy this offseason if they indeed didn’t intend to bring Brooks back. He’s not the difference between landing a big-name free agent and missing out, but he does keep Phoenix’s hands tied a bit. Sure that hold might be worth it if the Suns want to keep him around, but I don’t see him as the point guard of the future to succeed Nash, and I assume the Suns’ front office doesn’t either.

Ryan Weisert: False. Brooks’ departure to China is just further proof that he is unhappy with his situation in the NBA. He was angry that Houston didn’t pay him, and he didn’t seem to love the move to Phoenix last season. I would prefer Brooks was not on the roster if and when Nash leaves, so that the front office is not tempted to call him the point guard of the future. The Suns should renounce his rights and use the cap space elsewhere.

Much has been made about the Suns’ potential for gobs of cap space next offseason, perhaps enough to sign a pair of max free agents if it comes to that, but to borrow a popular sports cliche let’s take things one season at a time.

The Suns have already made clear that their first order of business involves re-signing Grant Hill. Since he’s been working out with the Suns and has stated his desire to return, Phoenix is definitely the frontrunner. However, NBA.com’s David Aldridge reported that the Clippers, Bulls and Knicks are also in the hunt for Hill’s services.

You may remember that Hill nearly signed with the Knicks as a free agent two years ago. He has familiarity with Mike D’Antoni from their year together in the desert, and of course he played three seasons with Amare Stoudemire. His defense would be a welcome addition in the Big Apple.

Although Hill isn’t the kind of shooter many think the Bulls need to add, he would fit into their defensive-minded system just fine, and the Clippers could be a small forward away from really making some noise in the West. His veteran presence would make a huge difference on such a young Clippers team.

If Hill leaves, the Suns will certainly pursue another rotation wing. They likely will even if he stays, but that would give the Suns the same glut of five wings for four rotation spots that led to Josh Childress’ exile on the bench last season.

Still, The Arizona Republic reported that such a wing and a backup point guard make up the rest of Phoenix’s offseason shopping list after Hill.

The wing will ideally be a shooting guard who can become the go-to guy the Suns lacked all last season without Amare Stoudemire and then even more severely once Jason Richardson departed.

However, the market does not appear to be long on go-to guys willing to play on a one-year deal for no more than the $5 million allowed by the mid-level exception (the Suns project to be over the cap with Hill and Aaron Brooks’ cap holds). Therefore, it’s likely the Suns will lack that presence once again and rely largely on Steve Nash to make the offense go.

HoopsWorld reported that the Suns are one of many teams kicking the tires on Jamal Crawford, along with the Nets, Hornets, Bulls, Heat, Lakers, Mavericks and Trail Blazers.

In some ways Crawford would be an excellent fit as he would provide instant offense off the bench (the kind of punch last year’s bench unit lacked in a big way), could play both guard spots and is the type of player who can take over down the stretch as the Suns know all too well.

Although Crawford scored just 14.2 ppg last season, he scored at least 17 per game six of the previous seven seasons for four different teams.

Crawford’s defense doesn’t leave much to be desired, but the real issue is likely his price tag, especially with all those teams chasing. For one year at the midlevel, this would be an ideal signing, but a 31-year-old Jamal Crawford is not somebody the Suns should be investing in long term.

The Republic reported that the Suns were interested in Kings restricted shooting guard Marcus Thornton, who is basically Crawford seven years younger. For all those same reasons I think Thornton would be a great fit for this year, but he also is not exactly the kind of player the Suns should be locking up long term, and the Kings likely won’t let him get away after he thrived in Sacto last season.

Michael Redd in theory would be a solid pick-up, but there is tons of inherent risk in a player who has played 61 games total the past three seasons due to knee injuries.

Redd is exactly the kind of guy who would take a one-year, low money deal (what better place for a shooting guard to rebuild his value than next to Steve Nash?), but it would be ridiculous to think Redd will come right in and be the All-Star he used to be, or anything close to it.

With the Suns’ miracle-working training staff I wouldn’t mind the team rolling the dice with Redd, but he would be most certainly be a gamble.

The Suns’ other hole to fill is at the backup point guard spot, a position where they have been seeking help pretty much since Steve Nash returned in 2004. Aaron Brooks was supposed to be the man for this role, but of course he is stuck in China for the next few months with only his $5 mil cap hold left to remind Suns fans of him.

However, if I ran the Suns, I would not make finding a backup point guard a huge priority. Sure, it would be nice, but they have a guy in-house in Zabian Dowdell who did a reasonable job last season in his limited opportunities as the backup point guard. Z certainly has his limitations (shooting in particular), but he can run the team and defend pretty adeptly.

In theory, Brooks will be back a couple months into the season, which gives Dowdell that first chunk of the year to prove whether or not he’s a long-term answer as a backup point guard.

If they sign another legit point guard, they are basically saying goodbye to Brooks and hoping they can flip him into some sort of asset when he returns stateside, and I doubt too many teams will be clamoring for AB midway through the year.

So in summation the Suns could really use a shooting guard who can play some one, be the go-to guy in crunch time, create off the dribble, play defense and come at the low, low price of one year and $5 million.

So long as that player does not exist, the Suns will likely use this free agency period to sign a player or two who can provide some of those desired attributes.

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• Schmitz and I participated in today’s 5-on-5 on the Suns, which included questions on which player the 2011-12 season is most important for (Schmitz and I both said Robin Lopez), who the most intriguing Sun is and whether the shortened season will help or hurt the Suns.
• The NBA schedule will be officially released tomorrow. Paul Coro got his hands on a copy ahead of time and reported that the Suns will miss all of the East’s stars at home and play three games in a row twice.
• Jared Dudley will be hosting a meet and greet on Tuesday from 6:30-7:30 p.m. at the Majerle’s Grill in downtown Phoenix. The first 50 people to arrive will receive a free “Jared Dudley Grilled Chicken” sandwich.

The Suns plan to waive Vince Carter to save $14.3 million. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

Vince Carter was never going to play this season for the Phoenix Suns at an $18.3 cap number, the only question was whether the Suns would find a suitable trade partner before waiving his largely non-guaranteed contract.

A Carter trade does not appear to be in the cards, however, as ESPN’s Marc Stein and Chris Broussard reported Sunday that the Suns will indeed waive Carter within the first 72 hours of free agency before his 2011-12 salary becomes fully guaranteed. Carter’s contract calls for $4 million of guaranteed money, but the Suns can forego paying the remaining $14.3 million by releasing him.

By ValleyoftheSuns’ salary numbers, the Suns will be on the hook for about $53.5 million in salaries after waiving Vince, but that number is over $64 million when you add the cap holds on Grant Hill and Aaron Brooks into the equation. When you consider both players will likely play for something closer to the $3 million-plus range (if Brooks plays at all), that puts Phoenix at $60 million (without including Markieff Morris’ deal).

Although we don’t know exactly what the new luxury tax will be, if it’s close to the $70.3 million from last season then most any deal involving taking back salary for Carter would have pushed the Suns into the tax unless the deal involved taking on pretty lengthy contracts for less dollars, which the Suns don’t want to do since their long-term plan is predicated on 2012 cap space.

Therefore, deciding to waive Carter was not exactly the most difficult post-lockout decision this front office will make.

Carter averaged a career-low 13.5 points per game as a Sun to go along with 3.6 boards and 1.6 assists per game while shooting 42.2 percent from the field. He exploded for big scoring games at times but too often was plagued by inconsistency and inaccurate shooting with Phoenix. Vinsanity never did become the go-to scorer the Suns had hoped they were acquiring and he was replaced by Jared Dudley in the starting lineup late in the year, making this move a foregone conclusion more or less.

The ESPN report included a couple more juicy tidbits on the Suns’ thinking:

The Suns’ plan, sources said, is to bring back Hill if possible and make a playoff run this season, then proceed to the summer of 2012 armed with salary-cap space to make major upgrades to the roster.

Sources said the Suns have yet to receive any indication from star guard Steve Nash that he wants to be dealt to a contender, which is why management clings to the hope that the two-time MVP — who is also headed for free agency in July 2012 — will retire a Sun.

This is essentially the plan the Suns spoke of in the aftermath of 2010-11. We know 2012 is the year the Suns plan on making wholesale upgrades and we know they do not want to start rebuilding now without Nash to plan for that future.

So long as they don’t trade him, Nash should make the Suns good enough to contend for a playoff spot throughout the season. The downside is that would prevent the team from earning a top-10 draft pick that could be a major piece of their rebuilding project, but so long as the Suns do commit to keeping him and bringing back Hill they owe it to those vets to try to stir up the magic one more time.

Toward their goal of trying to win one more year (at least) with Nash, The Arizona Republic reported that the team is interested in adding a wing and a backup point guard to the roster. It will be interesting to see if the Suns offer anything more than a one-year deal as they pursue free agents in the hopes of preserving their voluminous amount of 2012 cap space.

With the lockout all but over, those poor general managers now have a road map by which to base future decisions.

Now it’s time to make sense of the post-lockout landscape both on a team level and an individual player/executive level, as I do below by analyzing 10 important questions surrounding the Suns in light of the new labor agreement:

1.  Did the Suns benefit from the new rules imposed by the lockout?

The Suns were among the teams hoping for widespread change to the rules of the NBA system. They did not get that, but at least the stiffer luxury tax penalties should dissuade more teams from becoming tax payers or at least from going deep into the tax.

These penalties likely ensure the Suns won’t go more than a few million over the luxury tax ever, if that, but if it ends up reducing the Lakers’ payroll down the road and preventing other teams from spending wildly it could end up leveling the playing field a bit.

The rules also allows non-taxpayers to offer a more lucrative mid-level exception (starting at $5 million over four years with 3 percent raises after the first two years as opposed to a three-year deal starting at $3 million), so a Suns team that stays under the luxury tax would have another added advantage over the tax teams.

However, a hard cap or at least a tax that works as a hard cap, would have been better for Phoenix.

In addition, the shorter extend-and-trade rules won’t affect the Suns at the beginning at least since they don’t have any such player to deal nor the assets to bring home a major extend-and-trade candidate.

2.  How does the deal impact the Suns’ summer of 2012 plans?

Seth Pollack feels the the new CBA throws a wrench in the Suns’ future plans. I’m not so sure.

Yes, it is now even more difficult for the Suns to land one of the Big Three of Dwight, CP3 or D-Will, as Seth explains, but that was very unlikely to happen anyway. They always would have had to take less money to come to the desert and there always were better options for them.

Seth notes that it’s never good to have lots of cap space to spend but no big name player to use it on because teams often are “prone to overspend on lesser players” in such cases as we saw in 2010 with the Suns, but I’m optimistic the Suns will have learned that lesson.

Cap space is always valuable, and there are certainly attractive players beyond the top three, particularly in the restricted free agent realm. With teams potentially fearing the adverse affects of the new luxury tax, talent could be available in trades in return for cap space as well.

To me the plan should always have been to build through the draft and supplement with that cap space, and I don’t see this deal changing that in any significant way.

3.  What will the deal do for the Suns’ free agency plans this year?

It shouldn’t do much. Aside from re-signing Grant Hill and shopping for a wing scorer perhaps, the Suns would be wise to save their money for next year, which seems to be the plan if Hill is their top priority.

They don’t have much cap space this year, so regardless of the rules the Suns weren’t likely to be players in any system.

4. How does the new CBA affect Steve Nash’s situation?

It could make him easier to trade since non-taxpaying teams can now take on “up to the lesser of 150 percent plus $100,000, or 100 percent plus $5 million of the salaries they trade away,” as Larry Coon writes. Before teams over the cap, not the luxury tax, could only take on 125 percent plus $100,000. In theory this will open up some more options and will make it less complicated to match contracts to make a trade work.

The Suns could also theoretically take on more salary in any potential Vince Carter trade if they wanted to pick up a useful asset in return for providing that instant cap relief, although such a move could push them into the tax.

The new extension-and-trade rules aimed at preventing another Carmelo Anthony situation shouldn’t affect Nash much because although players can only sign for two additional years in an extend-and-trade, it’s doubtful a team would want to sign Nash for anything longer than that. After all, he will turn 40 during that second additional year.

5. What was Sarver’s involvement in the lockout?

This is a question I cannot wait to have answered by the Suns’ owner himself.

At Brad Casper’s introductory news conference, Sarver said, “I can say that eventually when it’s over the facts of my role and my involvement will come out, and I look forward to that happening. I’m prohibited from commenting about it, but as you know don’t believe everything you read.”

Sarver was vilified for being among the most hardline of the hardliners and reportedly made the strange comment of saying his “wife had asked him to bring back the middle level exception in a designer bag.”

But in recent weeks we learned that Sarver and Gilbert “have not been as hawkish in the negotiations as they have been portrayed,” courtesy of CBS Sports’ Ken Berger, and then ESPN’s Marc Stein wrote a couple days before the lockout was resolved that Phoenix along with win-now teams like the Lakers, Heat, Magic and Celtics were among the teams pushing hardest for a deal in principle.

That just doesn’t jibe with the image of Sarver that has been drawn throughout the negotiations, as one would think the Suns would be among the last teams pushing for a deal alongside big money teams like that based on Sarver’s prior portrayal.

It will be interesting to find out if the villainous reports were exaggerated or if the Suns’ owner merely experienced a change of heart near the end.

6. How will the Suns use the amnesty clause?

I have already publicized my thoughts on the amnesty clause, and they remain largely the same after we learned that the amnesty clause will remove 100 percent of a salary from a team’s cap (although of course it must still be paid in full) and that the player must currently be on that team’s roster with a contract signed under the prior CBA.

In essence it lets a team wipe out one mistake made before the current rules were put into place, and it can be pocketed for later use as well. This is too bad for teams that have managed their caps well (although I’m glad it can only be used on current players so a big market team can’t buy talent in return for wiping out a small market team’s mistake), but should eventually be put into play by the Suns, who have three potential candidates.

Mickael Pietrus seems like a poor choice unless some compelling immediate benefit can be derived from waiving his $5.3 million expiring contract. Otherwise, he could be traded for an asset to a team needing cap space or just play out this season before providing that cap space to Phoenix.

For me, therefore, it comes down to Hakim Warrick and Josh Childress. Warrick has two years and $8 million of guaranteed money left (and a team option for $4 mil the year after), and Childress four years and $27 million.

It makes sense to keep both guys this season and make the decision next year when every cent of cap space will be at a premium. If Childress proves to be an effective rotation player, then you shave off $4 million of Warrick’s money. If Childress is a bust, then you kiss his final three years and $21 million goodbye. Either way the Suns will be able to reverse one of their 2010 mistakes (if Childress indeed ends up being a mistake), to accrue more cap space for their big summer of 2012.

The other interesting aspect of the amnesty rule that is that any team with salary cap (not luxury tax) space can submit an offer consisting of as much room as they have under the cap for a waived amnesty player. The winning bidder will then take on the player’s contract for the amount bid, and the waiving team will be on the hook for remainder of the contract.

This likely won’t be an option for Phoenix this season, but it definitely will be next offseason. That could be a time the Suns could nab an overpaid but productive player at an affordable price with some of their cap space.

7. Will Lon Babby find any loopholes?

One of the reasons the Suns hired Lon Babby as their president of basketball operations is because he is a long-time lawyer and agent adept at analyzing complicated contracts, which is exactly what this new CBA is.

Babby has now had a year on the job to get his feet wet, and the Suns will expect him to take advantage of some of these new rules to give them some sort of a competitive advantage. We will soon find out if this lawyer can help the Suns see something that the average GM glosses over.

8.  What happens to Aaron Brooks now?

Aaron Brooks could not have worse timing. A week after signing a one-year deal with a Chinese team that includes no escape clause, the league is back in action.

What we know is that Brooks is likely gone until at least March, when the CBA playoffs end.

I’m not quite sure what will happen at that point. For now the Suns have a $5,041,730 cap hold on their cap for Brooks, which is 250 percent of his previous salary, and have extended a $2,976,636 qualifying offer. The Suns could always renounce his rights if they needed the cap space (which they won’t if they indeed are not players).

To me the most logical scenario would be for Brooks to re-sign with the Suns for the rest of the year when he returns to the States and then for the Suns to make any long-term determination on him next summer.

For now Brooks can lament his lost shot at restricted free agency for the time being as he will toil away in China for a few months instead of playing in the NBA.

9. How does Dudley’s extension look in light of the new CBA?

Jared Dudley signed a five-year, $21.25 million extension that could be worth as much as $22.5 mil with incentives at the start of last season, a contract that seemed like a sweetheart deal for the Suns at the time.

But JD was cognizant of the changing labor landscape and the fact that role players like him just weren’t going to get paid like they used to.

If Dudley was going to test the restricted free agency market this offseason instead of awaiting the first year of that extension he could have taken a four-year deal for $20.45 mil from a non-taxpayer or a three-year deal for $9.27 million from a taxpayer (or more if a team felt he deserved better than a mid-level salary).

Dudley may have left a few dollars on the table in terms of average salary, but if he was concerned with long-term security he could not have done any better. With teams likely to be cautious when spending on role players anyway, perhaps Dudley took one look at this potential new labor landscape, considered his happiness in Phoenix and then decided to sign on the bottom line on a deal that looks as fair as ever now.

That’s because the deal looks good from the Suns side as well, assuming Dudley continues to produce at the clip he has the past few years. Locking up players long term is only bad if they underperform, and Dudley should be able to outproduce the $4 million plus he’s owed on a contract that gives the Suns an important piece of their future at less than the average annual (non tax) mid-level price.

10. Would the new max rules have kept Amare in Phoenix?

It certainly won’t help the Suns now, but they would have had a better shot at keeping Amare Stoudemire last summer because the New York Knicks would have only been able to offer him a four-year deal with 4.5 percent raises rather than a five-year deal with eight percent raises as was the case under the old CBA, according to Coon’s breakdown.

The Suns were only comfortable guaranteeing the first three seasons of Stoudemire’s contract, but they could have offered a more lucrative first three years than the Knicks. Perhaps at that point they could have gotten creative with that fourth year and STAT would have been more amenable to it since there wouldn’t have been $100 million sitting on the table in front of him in the Big Apple. That is, assuming he was genuinely interested in returning in the first place.

It won’t help the Suns now with nobody even close to worthy of a max deal, but if the Suns luck into a star in the draft down the road the new rules should make him easier to re-sign than Amare was.

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ESPN’s Chad Ford and John Hollinger broke down how the new CBA affects each and every NBA team. Their analysis of the Suns is below:

How it helps: The amnesty rule will give Lon Babby a chance to undo a disastrous summer that saw owner Robert Sarver throwing away money on free agents like Josh Childress and Hakim Warrick.

How it hurts: The Suns were another team pushing hard for major changes to the CBA. They didn’t get them, and now it looks like there will be a long rebuilding process ahead in Phoenix.

The lockout also cost them Aaron Brooks, who inexplicably signed a deal in China with no NBA out just a week before players and owners reached a tentative agreement.

Immediate impact (this season): No CBA can undo the damage Sarver has done to the team in the past few years. In an attempt to save money, he gutted one of the most exciting teams in the league and is left with a roster of middling, overpaid players and Steve Nash. Nash is leaving sooner or later and the Suns will have to seriously consider moving him now if they want anything back.

Long-term impact (future seasons): Ehhhh. The Suns have Marcin Gortat going forward. But the rest of the team? It’s going to be a frustrating few years for fans.

The Phoenix Suns want Grant Hill back, and the feeling is mutual. (AP Photo/Matt York)

The Phoenix Suns are not expected to make much of a splash in free agency this December, at least not in a way that would put a dent into their 2012 cap space.

So while other teams were off chasing the Tyson Chandlers and Nenes of the world Wednesday morning when teams could first contact agents, Lon Babby’s first call was to the agent of a very familiar face: Grant Hill.

“Grant is an absolute first order of business and top priority,” Babby told The Arizona Republic. “I can’t contemplate him not being here. He represents everything we want the franchise to stand for — on and off the court. He’s our ballast.”

With Babby being Hill’s former agent and Alvin Gentry being his long-time coach who gushes about the former Blue Devil every chance he gets, Hill re-signing has always been something of a foregone conclusion.

However, with Hill having turned 39 years old in October it also would make sense for him to at least test the free agency waters as he did two years ago with the Knicks and Celtics seriously pursuing. Hill would be an ideal role player for a title contender with his defense, intangibles and mid-range jumper, but Paul Coro reported that both sides want a Suns reunion to happen for Hill.

It would make sense to offer Hill a one-year deal in the $3-4 million range, but I would be leery of offering him any more years than that.

Suns trainer Aaron Nelson told me before 2010-11 finished that Hill could “definitely play a couple more years” and with his intense training regimen and ultra healthy diet I wouldn’t bet against him.

I definitely feel it’s likely Hill has a couple more productive years in him, but I just don’t see it being too smart to tie 2012 money up on a player who will be entering his 40s in 2012-13. If Hill enjoys another successful season then at that point I would be willing to talk about Hill’s age 40 season if I’m Babby.

Still, signing Hill for this season really is a no-brainer. The Suns’ top offseason priority remains improving their defense, and they don’t have much of a shot of doing that without their top defender in Hill.

Hill also provides the Suns with the kind of stability that will be necessary during what promises to be a chaotic season, as his signing would ensure that all of Phoenix’s key rotations players return.

If only their first decision next offseason would be this easy.

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• The Suns will play their preseason home-and-home against the Denver Nuggets, The Arizona Republic reported. Each NBA team will play two such games against a neighboring squad and the Suns drew the Nuggets since their divisional rivals all have a more logical geographic partner.
• VotS guest writer Emile Avanessian runs down the five greatest highlights in Suns history at Hardwood Hype.

Steve Nash would have been a hot commodity had he chosen to run for free agency this summer. (AP Photo/Matt York)

Amid all the hype about the Summer of 2010 nationally surrounding the LeBron circus and locally about Amare’s defection, we seem to have forgotten that another fairly important member of the Phoenix Suns could have been a free agent this summer: Steve Nash.

Nash’s six-year deal signed in 2004 was set to expire last summer, but the Suns of course extended him for two years and $22 million in last summer’s big move.

At the time it was viewed as a curious move being that few saw the Suns as contenders (how wrong that was last season) and since he likely could have stood to bank much more than the $22 million he signed for last summer considering all the teams with money to burn.

The Knicks for certain would have made a huge play for Nash after striking out on LeBron. New York has always been a team that interests Two Time, and with their deep pockets and Amare and D’Antoni, it really might have been the New York Suns had Nash been a free agent.

Alas, Steve Nash chose the security of the two years and comfort with the organization in signing the deal, but after enjoying such a spectacular season last year he probably would have been in line for a nice raise on the open market. I bet he could have gotten something in the area of three years and $40 million.

However, this isn’t to say the extension was a bad deal for Nash. He’s still paid well and his decision to extend showed his teammates how much faith he has in this situation, which led to what happened last year. Nash pulling a Malone and trying to win a cheap ring with a contender wouldn’t be what he’s all about anyway, so you must respect him for trying to win a real ring with a team that is his own.

Without question, that is the case in Phoenix. According to a study by Neil Paine on Basketball Reference, Nash has played for better offenses than anybody in history and outside of long-time teammate Amare Stoudemire, nobody else is close.

Really this is no surprise since Nash has led three of the top four and six of the top 11 offenses of all time (all but one in Phoenix), and has directed the league leader in efficiency for practically the last decade.

So while Nash would have been a hot commodity on the open market, he did not need to be showered with love by drooling suitors like a particular trio in South Beach and he did not feel the need to squeeze every last dollar out of what could be his final contract when he’s got a situation that suits him just fine.

And anyway, he was too busy traipsing to South Africa to report on the World Cup and starting his own investment firm for such petty matters anyway.