How Bosh’s medical release could effect the Heat’s 2018 pick

As sports fans we may not like our opponents, but we should always be respectful when someone’s career ends in manner this serious. May Chris Bosh’s health not be a detriment to enjoying a long and happy life, post-baseketball.

Unfortunately the Phoenix Suns are indirectly tied to the news that Chris Bosh will likely be forced to retire due to his continued health problems, as Phoenix holds the rights to Miami’s first round pick following next season (top seven protected).

At only 33 years old, Bosh’s career is likely over, and the Heat will now place him on waivers to relieve themselves of his salary for the next two seasons – which is hugely important to their potential re-working of their roster. Next season Bosh was scheduled to make $25.3M, although his release now wipes it from the books. As a result, the Heat will now have (at the moment) approximately $37M in cap space, more than enough to not only make a move at one max free agent, acquire a high-salary star in trade, but sign multiple depth players – none of which would have been possible had Bosh’s contract remained on the cap.

This is only speculation at the moment, but this likely means that the Heat will become very active participants in free agency this summer and hope to build upon their surprising 2016-17 season. As they will be returning their current core, with the addition of talent the team can easily be seen adding 5-10 wins next season (if not more, depending on who is acquired) to their 41-41 regular season record easily vaulting them into the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Would it make them Conference contenders? No, but it would kill most of the value in their draft pick.

This past offseason, the news of Chris Bosh’ illness took the basketball world by surprise and killed Miami’s ability to replace him through free agency. While the Heat finished the season white hot, they initially looked as if they would easily be competing for a top five lottery selection. That turnaround instilled confidence in the roster and it’s ability to compete, so the idea of adding, rather than re-tooling, seems like the more likely scenario.

With this new news about Chris Bosh coming to light during the NBA Finals, the franchise has plenty of time to make contingency plans to fill out their roster around studs Hassan Whiteside and Tyler Johnson. If they are able to do so, then Suns fans should not look forward to much value in that pick as even a first round playoff exit by the Heat in 2018 could put their first round selection anywhere in the range of 15-22.

If the Heat are unable to acquire additional talent this offseason and stumble next season as well, the pick is only top seven protected so there then might be a solid chance of Phoenix obtaining the pick in the 8-14 range. For that to happen, the Heat would need to win at least 31 games.

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Of course, if Miami becomes the next great tanker and falls to within the bottom seven in the league, Suns fans know all too well that nothing would break in Phoenix’s favor to sneak that pick away from the Heat in the end. However, while they would also have Bosh’s 2018-19 salary of $26.8M off the books as well, Tyler Johnson’s new deal kicks in then so the Heat are actually projected to have around $9M more in guaranteed salary in 2018-19 than in 2017-18, although with only five players currently under guaranteed contracts.

Unless the Heat are able to move Goran Dragic’s remaining approx. $54.3M over the next three years (including a $19.2M player option in 2019-20) then it may be advantageous for the Heat to shoot for the free agent Moon and lock up a playoff spot for 2018 and work on improving the roster more thoroughly in the summer of 2019, thus giving Phoenix the pick, although not anywhere near it appeared it might be on January 13 of this past season.