Phoenix Suns: A Way-Too-Early Look Ahead To 2016 Free Agency
Even after smart offseason additions like Tyson Chandler, stetch-4 Mirza Teletovic and promising rookie Devin Booker, the big story from the Phoenix Suns’ 2015 summer is still going to be finishing second in the LaMarcus Aldridge sweepstakes. Looking ahead to 2016, it doesn’t look like things are going to get much easier when it comes to luring the ideal superstar free agent.
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To be fair, Suns general manager Ryan McDonough did a commendable job addressing Phoenix’s other areas of need this summer. Phoenix may not have gotten the superstar needed to take the next step in the Western Conference bloodbath, but the Suns improved their three-point shooting, veteran leadership and (hopefully) locker room chemistry.
That being said, the ultimate goal for the franchise remains the same: acquiring the right cornerstone to lead the charge to the postseason, and ideally, a championship one day down the road. As of right now, Phoenix has quite a few young, talented weapons to develop over the next few years, but they don’t have the kind of player to carve the way to the promised land.
Historically, NBA champions are built through the draft. Take a look at the last 35 championship teams and you’ll notice a recurring trend: the best or second-best player on the roster is almost always a player that the team originally drafted. There are a few exceptions, of course, but most championship teams are led by a star who started off as nothing more than a draft pick meant to lead a bad team back to prominence.
The league gives incentives to teams to retain their draft selections if they so choose, which is why that trend of champions being built on smart drafting continues to this day. Just take a look at the mega-extension Anthony Davis earned with the New Orleans Pelicans if you’re not convinced of the two-way value of teams sticking with their star draft selections.
Unfortunately for Phoenix, that avenue may be out until the Suns are conveyed future first round picks from the Miami Heat — picks that are years away and may not even wind up being that valuable.
This is an unfortunate consequence of building from the middle up, as the Suns were forced to do when McDonough’s tank preparations for 2013-14 resulted in a 48-win team that wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs but was nowhere near bad enough to rack up the top lottery picks. That won’t be changing anytime soon with a starting lineup — Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, P.J. Tucker, Markieff Morris and Tyson Chandler — that should contend for a playoff spot next season.
The other two obvious avenues for landing a star player are via free agency or trade. McDonough has done an excellent job stockpiling assets to be able to put together an enticing offer when the opportunity for a disgruntled star presents itself, but the front office won’t be complacent and simply wait around for that day to come.
With that in mind, we’re left with free agency. There’s still a ton of time that needs to pass before anyone knows what to expect next summer. But in looking ahead to that top-heavy free agency class, it’s easy to see that Phoenix’s means for taking the next step will be limited.
Next summer, some of the top free agents will include LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard, Mike Conley, Andre Drummond, Bradley Beal, Al Horford, Chandler Parsons and Hassan Whiteside. In order:
- LeBron isn’t leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers again. He’ll only become a free agent so he can capitalize on the exploding salary cap, so you can forget about this one.
- Durant is more realistic than LeBron, but I’d be shocked if he left a fellow top-10 player in Russell Westbrook and betrayed the Oklahoma City Thunder like that. The Suns proved this summer that they can put together an effective free agency pitch, but even if Durant did leave OKC, his hometown connection to the Washington Wizards would hypothetically make them favorites over Phoenix anyway, right?
- D-12 will probably try to stay in Houston on a title contender with his buddy James Harden, but even if he were available, why would the Suns shy away from their Tyson Chandler-Alex Len center tandem to pay Howard max money as he enters the tail end of his prime? The same question could be asked in regards to the injury-prone Al Horford as well.
- Mike Conley is an underrated point guard, but Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight are younger and signed terrific long-term deals. The Suns are set at that position.
- Andre Drummond is a little too offensively raw, so even though he’s got way more potential than Len right now, Phoenix seems confident in the effect Chandler’s mentorship will have on the young Ukrainian. Drummond is also a restricted free agent, so you can expect the Detroit Pistons to match offers for him anyway.
- Bradley Beal would be a terrific get for Phoenix, but I don’t see him leaving an elite point guard in John Wall or the cushy situation in the East to join the Suns. Beal is especially unlikely to leave Washington since he’s also a restricted free agent.
- Chandler Parsons represents a long-term upgrade on the wing over P.J. Tucker, but a year from now most fans will be rioting in the streets if it doesn’t look like T.J. Warren is going to get his chance to shine. There will be other, more persistent suitors for Parsons at that point too.
- Hassan Whiteside still has a ton to prove with the Miami Heat and has already developed a reputation as a bit of a head case. No thanks.
As you can see, the outlook for next summer might be even more grim than it was this offseason (before the Suns suddenly became serious contenders for Aldridge, that is). There’s always a chance McDonough shocks the world again with his ninja-like decision-making, but the Suns have their work cut out for them.
If there’s even a inkling that Kevin Durant might leave the Thunder, you throw everything you’ve got into bringing him to the Valley as the new face of the franchise. But in the unlikely event he even considers signing with other teams, Phoenix will have PLENTY of competition with almost every team also possessing max cap space next summer.
Next summer is still ages away, and a lot can happen in a year. But for the time being, in taking a way-too-early look ahead to 2016, it appears that the Suns’ best avenue for landing a much-needed franchise cornerstone is continuing to scour the trade market.
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