Dre Alvarez from the Wages of Wins Network blog NerdNumbers.com joined me on the ValleyoftheSuns podcast to discuss what the Wins Produced stat tells us about the Suns as well as the Second Seconds or Less era and how Phoenix should go about reloading for next season.
Dre feels one of the biggest reasons people see the Suns as a team heading down is because they played the wrong players last season, but he thinks thanks to the Gortat trade (his vote for best trade of the past year) the Suns aren’t in such a bad spot overall.
Alvarez also disagrees with a point Mark Cuban made at the 2011 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in that teams should either try to be really good or really bad, so they can bottom out and draft a star to lead them back to the promised land.
Dre sees the draft as an area that teams botch most often and he doesn’t see a top-three pick as a means to salvation unless it’s in a draft with a franchise player like LeBron, Howard or Duncan. It’s interesting he says this because Lon Babby and the Suns seem to be of the same opinion based on their insistence on continuing to compete with Nash rather than trying to bottom out to find their next star as the conventional wisdom would suggest.