David Berri on Suns-Magic trade

Wages of Wins author David Berri analyzed the Suns-Magic trade through the prism of Wins Produced, concluding that the Suns improve to an expected playoff team level based on Marcin Gortat taking minutes at the center position that have been played very poorly this season, particularly by Earl Barron (released today).

Other conclusions from the piece include:

  • The Carter/J-Rich swap should be a wash based on their Wins Produced averages this season.
  • Mickael Pietrus should not play over the wings the Suns currently have.
  • Josh Childress has been producing more wins than you might think.
  • Hedo Turkoglu really was a non-factor for the Suns this season.
  • The Suns still aren’t good enough to compete with the top teams in the West, but improvement is improvement, especially when you can dump a toxic contract along the way.

These numbers don’t factor in the fact that I think we can expect Robin Lopez to vastly outproduce what he’s done to date because he lacked explosiveness early in the season that he seems to have regained after his injury. Also, I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that the acquisitions might play more efficiently now that they’re next to Steve Nash, and I bet Gortat’s WP48 changes one way or another now with more playing time.

Wages of Wins Network bloggers agree

Wages of Wins Network blogs Courtside Analyst and Arturo’s Silly Little Stats broke down the trade and agree that the Suns came out winners in the short term without even discussing the implications of dumping Hedo’s contract. They both provide more in-depth analysis of the deal through the lens of Wins Produced.

  • Bostonian Suns Fan

    Reports are surfacing that Vinsanity is considering arthroscopic knee surgery. Any idea how the Wins Produced model would be changed now that we are dealing with either a hobbled VC or one month absence?

  • Daniel

    These particular moves may make us marginally better, or marginally worse. Either way, all we are doing is planning for the future. The composition of the current roster, I feel, is largely irrelevant (excepting Gortat, obviously). And so too, is the rest of this season, unless a major trade can be made before Feb.
    So, will Vince make up for the loss of J-Rich?(probably not) Is he going to get a scope? These are unknowable, what I do know is that at best he’s trade bait (the contract, not the talent) and at worst he’s a 1 yr/5 mil bench contributor