Comments on: 1 on 1 with David Berri: Part 1

By: A Phoenix Suns playoff Wins Produced analysis | Valley of the Suns

A Phoenix Suns playoff Wins Produced analysis | Valley of the Suns — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 06:08:21 +0000

[...] have spent a good deal of time discussing Wins Produced in relation to the 2009-10 Phoenix Suns on this site (to some [...]

By: Reconciling Wins Produced with team chemistry| Valley of the Suns

Reconciling Wins Produced with team chemistry| Valley of the Suns — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 08:15:31 +0000

[...] week’s two-part Q and A with Stumbling on Wins‘ David Berri provided a perfect time to ponder how we evaluate [...]

By: ghost of Darko

ghost of Darko — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 16:29:09 +0000

when are the Mensas who come up with these "advanced stats" gonna correct for the deficiencies in their advanced stats? and I'm sure Suns fans are thrilled at their team's bang for the buck performance. sure makes the 2 finals appearances in 42 years along with watching all that talent walk out the door in the last 6 years taste so much better.

By: JR

JR — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 10:55:47 +0000

I would add one comment on chemistry. I think his chart shows "chemistry" even though he does not recognize it. I would define as a team being more than the sum of its parts. In statistics that would show up as players playing better together than they do separately. A number of players did better (according to the Berri's criteria) than the previous year – including Nash. When a large portion of a team "over performs" – I would call that chemistry.

By: 1 on 1 with David Berri: Part 2| Valley of the Suns

1 on 1 with David Berri: Part 2| Valley of the Suns — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 07:02:42 +0000

[...] and analyzes whether the Phoenix Suns adequately replaced him this offseason. Be sure to also read Part 1, where Berri discusses advanced stats, chemistry and the value the Suns have gotten from their [...]

By: Michael Schwartz

Michael Schwartz — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 23:20:24 +0000

@Meez I would definitely recommend this book as well as Berri's first book, Wages of Wins. I'm kind of a closet econ nerd and I was fascinated by their analysis of inefficiencies in sports and some of the models they used to evaluate players and outside factors such as attendance.

By: Mike Meez

Mike Meez — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 23:06:18 +0000

Great article. Looks like an interesting, complex way to measure efficiency. And it certainly seems like a better method than focusing on PPG. However, I agree with suns68 about the nature of the game defying. Having Channing Frye as a 3 point threat was huge and that won’t always show up in any statistics. Defensive ability does not always show up in statistics either. If a guy locks an offensive player down so that the guy on offense has to pass, that is solid D but doesn’t get taken into account in stats. Having Robin Lopez down low to matchup with Bynum and Duncan means that those teams won’t pound the ball inside as much so plays that would have occured without Lopez now don’t happen at all. There’s not a stat for that either but obviously it’s very important. So even as intricate as the method may be for this table, I’m not ready to buy wholesale that it is completely accurate as to how many wins a guy contributed. Maybe I’ll get the book and see how he comes up with his figures though.

By: mike

mike — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 22:35:56 +0000

Not “Better”, more effective at producing plays that affect a win.

To understand WP48, you need to understand that Basketball is a game of efficiency & net possessions: the more possessions a team has, and the more effectively it uses them, the better.

The reason people miss this is that there are so many possessions, and “efficiency”, the ability to use possessions wisely, is less noticeable than a behind the back pass for a dunk. But is a solid box out and rebound less valuable than a flashy pass that fails 3 out of ten times?

It’s the same reason people gamble: they bias for things they remember, not for a solid statistically repeatable model. And how often did you, or does anyone, watch Lou vs Goran?

By: Sun Stats

Sun Stats — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 22:29:14 +0000

Suns68, I think you’re reading the table wrong. Frye and Dudley didn’t cost the Suns games. They just didn’t produce as many wins as last year hence the negative in the difference column.

By: A Q&A with Valley of the Suns « The Wages of Wins Journal

A Q&A with Valley of the Suns « The Wages of Wins Journal — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 21:55:09 +0000

[...] questions focused on Stumbling on Wins and the Phoenix Suns. The first part of my answers — 1 on 1 with David Berri: Part 1 – were posted today. Michael tells me that the second part should be posted [...]