Preview: Nuggets (53-28) at Suns (52-28)

Posted by on April 13th, 11:09 am

Suns 123, Nuggets 101

Nuggets

Suns

PHOENIX — The Suns’ official Big Dance doesn’t start until the weekend, but going along with that college basketball analogy tonight starts the beginning of their conference tournament.

Basically, the Suns have already clinched a so-called at-large berth, but how they fare tonight hosting Denver and Wednesday in Utah will affect where they’re seeded just like how a conference tournament affects where a college team ends up getting placed in the NCAA Tournament.

If the Suns win this theoretical tournament they will be the No. 3 seed, no questions asked, with the Dallas Mavericks guaranteeing Phoenix can go no higher Monday night with a win over the Clippers. If they lose both games they will be the No. 5 seed.

So long as Utah defeats Golden State tonight, the Suns will be the No. 4 seed against whichever team they beat this week if they split the two games. However, if Utah loses tonight and then the Suns beat Denver and lose to Utah, Phoenix could still fall to fifth in a three-way tie situation.

“The last three games are going to be really like playoff games anyway because you’re playing for position,” said Suns head coach Alvin Gentry. “They’ll be real physical games. There’s going to be runs and peaks and valleys, and we’re going to have to be able to just endure all of that and find a way to win the game. That’s what you have to do when you’re playing playoff basketball.”

Yes, the playoffs have already started, and the Wild West is starting to snap into focus. With a hat tip to ESPN’s John Hollinger for spelling out all these scenarios, the Thunder’s loss to the Brandon Roy-less Blazers on Monday clinches the No. 8 seed for them and a matchup with the Lakers.

Dallas will be No. 2 unless Utah wins out and they lose to San Antonio in the finale (in which case Utah would be second), and the Mavs will be playing the Spurs in the 2-7 game unless the Spurs beat Dallas in the finale and Portland loses at home to Golden State a night after the Warriors host the Jazz. So basically, barring upsets, we’re certainly looking at a Dallas-San Antonio rematch.

The Suns can obviously be anywhere from the Nos. 3-5 range. If they win out and nab the No. 3 seed, it’s likely they will be facing a Brandon Roy-less Portland squad, or possibly a banged-up Roy playing with a torn meniscus. That’s certainly far favorable to any other scenario, especially since they might be getting Dallas in round two and no Lakers until the conference finals. Yes, the playoffs have certainly started.

If the Suns don’t get the No. 3, they will either be facing Utah or Denver in the 4-5 game with the Lakers likely waiting in Round 2. Which path sounds more favorable to you?

The team I want to most avoid is Utah, as the Jazz are the West team favored most by the Hollinger Odds. To do that the Suns must beat a Denver squad tonight that they have played pretty well against all season, losing a close game on a botched call, scoring a resounding victory in Denver with Carmelo out, and using a zone to decimate the Nuggets in the second quarter of a home win.

Also, head coach George Karl is away from the team as he recovers from cancer and forward Kenyon Martin is just working his way back from a knee injury, making the Nuggets one of the more beatable teams in the West in my opinion.

But the Suns aren’t thinking about potential playoff matchups quite yet. They have put themselves in the position to earn home-court advantage in the first round and potentially a No. 3 seed with a torrid second half. Now they just have to finish the deal with two more regular-season wins to put themselves in a solid spot in the playoffs.

“It’s a great place to be in, and it’s going to be a lot of fun Tuesday,” Steve Nash said. “We’re just going to be solid, focused and play a good game.”

And 1

Marc Stein ranks the Suns No. 3 in the final edition of his power rankings, tops in the West. The Suns are currently No. 5 in the Hollinger rankings. … If the Suns win tonight, they will finish with fewer than 10 home losses for just the third time in the past 15 seasons. … The Suns have locked up esteemed trainer Aaron Nelson, according to KTAR, with a four-year deal. No Suns player has a guaranteed contract for that length of time.

Michael Schwartz founded ValleyoftheSuns in October 2008 and is the owner/editor emeritus of the site. He is currently working toward his MBA in sports business at San Diego State University.

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Tags: Denver Nuggets · Phoenix Suns · Phoenix Suns Preview · Playoffs

3 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Ace Phoenix // Apr 13, 2010 at 4:28 pm

    Well I will get us started, GO SUNS. I am not sure what team you have been watching Michael but my Suns started the playoffs about a month ago. What is great is Gentry really has them peaking at the right time. For the first time in close to a month Nash is healthy and well, Amar’e is continuing to pound the boards, even with Lopez out, and we have a legit 10 man rotation, that can be 11 if need be when Lopez is back. For all you are doing now J. Collins, we all know if Lopez is healthy your minutes in the playoffs will be limited at best. Hopefully, right!?!?
    This is our year, been saying it for a while, we are winning the championship, Amar’e is going to get paid, and we do surprisingly well with our mid-level this summer and we will be talking about defending the championship in five months when the pre-season starts in Indian Wells. Its our year, its our time, and frankly our team is Beast!!

    Great move tying up Nelson, the best in the biz.

    Amar’e nothing less than 30/15 tonight is acceptable and please, please posterize Melo for my facebook page.
    Nash do your thing 20/10
    JRich keep scrapping
    Hill and the Gang pick your spots, you are smart players do your thing where appropriate.
    Finally LB, where you at man? If you can’t find it you will play like 3-5 minutes a game in the playoffs. It is in you and if you can find it, well, we all know what you CAN do.

    Go Suns!

    Peace
    Ace

  • 2 Suns 123, Nuggets 101 – Home-court advantage| Valley of the Suns // Apr 14, 2010 at 2:05 am

    [...] ← Preview: Nuggets (53-28) at Suns (52-28) [...]

  • 3 The Z. Man // Apr 15, 2010 at 11:48 am

    Good vibes Ace.

    Nice to read a positive viewpoint. Suns fans began the year thinking that just because we missed the playoffs last year (barely) and gave Shaq away that we would not make the playoffs again this year or gain an 8th seed at best. They were blind to our potential. They were ranting and raving and firing up their “Trade Machines” to move Amare before the trade deadline, after STAT has played his whole career here. Now again, we hear all of the doubting Thomases out there, otherwise supposedly known as Suns fans. What now has made their sky fall? They say we won’t go anywhere in the playoffs because we don’t have Robin. When the Suns began the year at 14-3 (nearly 82%) , Robin was out with a broken foot. When Robin started for the Suns, we won less (nearly 71%), not more like is believed by many Suns fans. Moreover, now that Robin is nursing a problem back, Suns have not taken a step back. To the contrary, we have won all of our home games (all vs. winning teams) and have won five of seven on the road. Suns, during Robin’s current absence, have gone 8-2 (80%) all told. Our bench is VERY deep.

    Nash, STAT, and Hill are providing good leadership for our young guys. We are playing our best ball, now that Barbosa is back playing with the Suns. Back when we started 14-3, Leandro played a very big role. Then he went out, when his ankle was badly hurt. Even though he is not yet playing consistently up to his ability after returning from an operation to remove a cyst, Suns are benefiting from what he has been able to contribute. It’s no coincidence that the Suns are playing the best ball of the year (13-2 to finish the season) since the return of the Brazilian blur. That is a winning per centage of nearly 87%!!!! Gentry gave him more than 20 minutes vs. the Jazz in last night’s game and he played tough and played well.

    MUST start and also finish with LB.Let’s go SUNS!!!!

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