So you’re saying there’s a chance?

Posted by on April 5th, 3:26 pm

Last year at this time I published a story with this headline, only it pertained to the odds of the Phoenix Suns winning the draft lottery days after getting crushed in a must-win game in Dallas that effectively ended all hope of a playoff berth.

This time around it refers to the chances of the Suns winning it all (can’t believe I just typed those words).

I often tweet back and forth with Mike Morgan (@morgamic), one of the first ValleyoftheSuns readers I got to know a little bit, and he sent me this little gem last week courtesy of ESPN’s Playoff Predictor (much more fun than the Lottery Machine and almost as fun as the Trade Machine).

It only took Mike 12 tries to get a day many of you have been waiting for for decades:

Can the Playoff Predictor see the future?

Can the Playoff Predictor see the future?

Michael Schwartz founded ValleyoftheSuns in October 2008 and is the owner/editor emeritus of the site. He is currently working toward his MBA in sports business at San Diego State University.

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Tags: Phoenix Suns · Phoenix Suns Rumors

34 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Ace Phoenix // Apr 5, 2010 at 9:08 am

    I don't need a playoff generator to know that our team has a legitimate chance to win it all. On any given night, we have two people who can make a legitimate claim to the best player in the league title. Nash has 2 MVP's and Amar'e has played like one the last 7 weeks. With those two people on our team right now playing like they are and are capable of playing, I believe we can win it all.

    That said, Amar'e can go for 40 and Steve can have 15 assists, but it is the players 3-10 that have to take us to a title. Either Steve or Amar'e or both will get their's EVERY NIGHT!! Let's hope JRich, and JD3, and Frye, and Dragic, and Please, please Barbaso can each do there thing and we really can win this thing.

    Follow the leaders, Grant, Steve, and Amar'e, I really want to go to a parade!!

  • 2 Mike Meez // Apr 5, 2010 at 9:15 am

    I too did the playoff generator until the Phoenix Suns came up as champs! ha Took me more than 12 tries, maybe closer to 20 but even that is better than 30-1 odds from Vegas (from when I last checked). I placed a $20 bet on the Suns to win it all at the beginning of the season at 60-1 odds so it would be especially sweet if the Suns could pull it off this year with those odds ($1200!).

    My odds for the Suns to win the championship:

    If Robin Lopez plays healthy- 19%

    If Robin Lopez sits out or plays at less than 100%- 2%

    Who knew Robin Lopez would be such a difference maker? But just looking at a series against the Lakers, for example, I can't imagine beating them without Lopez. It would be pretty hard going against some other teams with good bigs such as the Spurs and Jazz.

  • 3 The Z. Man // Apr 5, 2010 at 11:35 am

    This is very cool.

    Meez, stop worrying about Robin. Our glass is not empty but VERY full. Suns have the leaders in Nash, STAT, and Hill. Best group of young guys ever.

    Even that may be enough with some luck. But don't forget that Barbosa is back. This puts us over the top in clutch play. No other team can boast a clutch 4th quarter big game duo like that of Nash and the Brazilian Blur.

    MUST start and also finish with LB. Let's go SUNS!!!!

  • 4 Sunsfanfromcroatia // Apr 5, 2010 at 12:04 pm

    yeah I thon we have a chance.We have probably the best bench in the NBA+the best playmaker in the last decade and now+we got Amare who is playing really good the last couple of weeks+we have a real Centar taht can block shoots and rebound not a undersize guy

    So lets hope for the best

    and Btw-I love your blog

    And yeah-sorry for my spelling

  • 5 Eddiek // Apr 5, 2010 at 2:23 pm

    I agree with Meez, Lopez is the secret. Not much of a chance without him. Can I ask a question, though, why do you think LB is so clutch Z man? I love the guy. Nicest guy in the world and sometimes very effective, but he has to be one of the dumbest players I've ever watched. His brain just doesn't seem half as fast as his feet.

  • 6 Jax // Apr 5, 2010 at 7:42 pm

    I did the Playoff Predictor a few days ago and the very first time i did it, the Suns won the Championship!!! The way they have played the last couple of months i could definately say thats a possibilty!
    Lets Go Suns!!!!

  • 7 mike thomson // Apr 5, 2010 at 8:44 pm

    Yep- first try using the hollinger predictor – Suns beat Hawks for title

  • 8 Mike // Apr 5, 2010 at 10:37 pm

    Hells yeah! Go Suns!

  • 9 adam // Apr 5, 2010 at 10:42 pm

    Yeah,i really believe we can win the champion this Year,just like The Z-man said,The SUNS have the best Young Guys ever.

  • 10 Auggie // Apr 6, 2010 at 2:35 am

    First time I did it, Suns went to the finals. Second time, they won it! Btw, even better, the Suns beat the fakers almost every time they faced them.

  • 11 jmac // Apr 6, 2010 at 3:32 am

    Somebody plz, somebody plz, tell me why is collins even on this team. I know there is a big man out there better than this guy D league, or sitting at home. Plz find Lopez a back up before we enter the playoffs. One more thing plz drop collins before we enter the playoffs

  • 12 Alex, Macedonia // Apr 6, 2010 at 3:42 am

    First time and Suns beat Cavs for tittle … It’s a sign …

  • 13 jay to the man // Apr 6, 2010 at 4:03 am

    took me 18 times wih the playoff predictor to make the suns champs, but real life should take less with the way their playing GO SUNS!

  • 14 MissJulze // Apr 6, 2010 at 4:16 am

    I got an even better prediction from the simulator… hehe check it out

    http://missjulze.posterous.com/nba-finals-predict

  • 15 brallee // Apr 6, 2010 at 4:23 am

    I did the playoff predictor twice in a row with the current standings and both times no matter the odds the Suns win the Championship.

  • 16 Yee // Apr 6, 2010 at 5:07 am

    I got the Suns winning 4 out of 15 times I did it, I feel it.

  • 17 NiceJoke // Apr 6, 2010 at 5:36 am

    Are you serious? When it comes down to a 7 game series, Suns will crumble and fail. Sorry, but the Suns DEF isnt solid enough to win a ring. First round and done. Why? Portland/Den/Spurs/Utah can all play lock down DEF. With the exception of OKC, I dont see PHX outscoring the OKC in a 7 game series. Nash cant guard Westbrook and Hill/JRich cant guard Durant. Who on the Suns can guard KD or Westbrook? One on One or PicknRoll, Suns cant deny KD/Westbrook from scoring.

  • 18 Hersey // Apr 6, 2010 at 5:57 am

    It's nice to have a team that has overachieved. I'll be happy with a good result. Following a team that hasn't won a title, has plenty of heartbreaking moments. The day the Suns win will be a happy one indeed.

  • 19 Any Given Night // Apr 6, 2010 at 6:07 am

    On any given night any one of the eight playoff teams can beat the others. That is what makes the West so exciting. Im a die hard Suns fan and yea I have hope that the Suns might just surprise everyone this year.

    Dont be so sure that the Suns will crumble in a 7 game series or that our defense isnt good enough to stop anyone. We may not play the best defense, but we can get stops when we need to.

    With Amare beasting, Nash dishing, and Richardson on fire like he has been lately, the Suns definately have a shot.

  • 20 KeZ // Apr 6, 2010 at 7:42 am

    Sign Raja Bell for the vet minimum and let him nag kobe all day long ;)

  • 21 KeZ // Apr 6, 2010 at 9:07 am

    Start Clark at the center spot against the Spurs! Release that caveman Collins and sign another “big” from the D-League…….

  • 22 Penguin // Apr 6, 2010 at 9:23 am

    From your screenshot, I can't see the 'probability' of the Suns beating Cleveland, but to give Phoenix the benefit of the doubt we'll say its 13%.

    Therefore Hollinger Probability of Suns Campionship

    = 62% x 25% x 42% x 13% = 0.84%

  • 23 HaHaHaaa! // Apr 6, 2010 at 10:27 am

    “Btw, even better, the Suns beat the fakers almost every time they faced them.”

    The “fakers” have 15 championships, 30 conference titles, and 31 division titles. Keep on living in fantasy land Suns’ fans. We like our reality here in Los Angeles…

  • 24 HaHaHaaa! // Apr 6, 2010 at 10:31 am

    …and yeah, the first time I did it a few days ago the Suns beat the Lakers for the upset. I damn near spit my food out in laughter.

  • 25 charly // Apr 6, 2010 at 10:37 am

    the first time i did the playoff predictor, i got suns defeating cavs in the finals. that would be incredible!

  • 26 JP // Apr 6, 2010 at 10:50 am

    Took a few tries, but I got the Suns over the Heat!!! I think the best was Thunder over the Bobcats, haha. And for those asking for a Lopez fill-in, Suns signed Dwayne Jones, 6′ 11″ 250 lb D-League player averaging 17.6 points and 16 boards. Go SUNS!

  • 27 Rob // Apr 6, 2010 at 10:51 am

    Suns are maybe the biggest question mark in either playoffs. Can go out in the first round if things are not in sync (Nash exhausted, Amare goes back to December form, Barbosa and Lopez still ailing, Frye, Dudley and Richardson shots off, etc) to winning a championship. (We don’t fear LeBron, Howard, or Kobe at all). Few teams, if any, have that wide of a range from floor to ceiling.

  • 28 Ravi // Apr 6, 2010 at 10:52 am

    realistically, stay away from seed 2.. and probably its difficulto too to have seed 2 for Phoenix. Allow some other team to take their changes against LA. if they do, its good if not then phoenix will step up.. My dreams shattered when Phoenix bench extended their play beyond the chair..when Nash was hit..I still dream for this team. Go Suns!

  • 29 Mangatang // Apr 6, 2010 at 4:45 pm

    "Too bad all you suns fans."

    Too bad? It's a freaking computer program. People here on their first try got the Suns winning it all. This program is nothing but random probability, with different results each and every time.

  • 30 Michael Schwartz // Apr 6, 2010 at 4:53 pm

    @Penguin, your math makes sense on the surface, but if you check out the Hollinger Playoff Odds, Hollinger gives the Suns a 6.5 percent chance of winning it all, which is the 3rd-best percentage in the West and fifth-best in the league. Surprisingly, his odds give the Suns a better chance of enjoying a parade than the Lakers and it rates the Spurs with Utah as the teams to beat in the West.

  • 31 Mike // Apr 6, 2010 at 6:21 pm

    Yeah, it factors in last 25% of season as a major indicator for playoff performance based on history. And if that holds true the Suns should do fairly well.

  • 32 TANK // Apr 6, 2010 at 9:54 pm

    Hmmm. I ran the same thing and the Lakers where the Champs.
    No upset for the Suns.

    Too bad all you suns fans.

  • 33 John // Apr 7, 2010 at 3:17 am

    I did the same accuscore and the Suns either didn't make past the first or second round. It was always the Lakers going past the second round or winning it all and it took 2 tries not 20. Suns fans get real, 40+ years in existence and 2 trips to the finals and nothing. The suns will NEVER win a championship!! It's called REALITY!!!!

  • 34 Mangatang // Apr 7, 2010 at 4:42 am

    You gotta love these Fakers trolls wandering in and spewing nonsense everywhere. I thought with a team like theirs doing so good, they'd be busy watching games, not trolling uninteresting blogs.

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