Perception vs. Reality Pt. 1: Game-Winning Shots

So Adam dropped a comment yesterday, talking about my man Iggy.  Adam said:

Personally, I think that Igoudala is just about as washed-up as you get for a Top 30 players under 30. He routinely gets the chance to win games at the end of regulation and, without fail, fails.

Oh, is that so?  It’s funny, because I was just reading that same thing somewhere else.  Can’t remember where, of course, but somebody (I think on ESPN) was just saying something to that effect.  Iguodala, for whatever reason, has gotten himself a reputation as a guy who misses big shots.  Well, there’s only one thing to do here: let’s go to the numbers.  And the videotape.

Over at 82games.com, they’ve got a pretty nice breakdown of Game-Winning Shots.  In case you don’t want to head over there, I’ll help you out because that’s just the kind of guy I am.  These are through 2.4.09.

Game-Winning Shots:

Player Fgm Fga Fg%
LeBron James 17 50 0.340
Vince Carter 16 51 0.314
Ray Allen 15 39 0.385
Kobe Bryant 14 56 0.250
Carmelo Anthony 13 27 0.481
Allen Iverson 13 33 0.394
Ben Gordon 12 34 0.353
Dirk Nowitzki 12 37 0.324
Joe Johnson 12 45 0.267
Paul Pierce 11 32 0.344
Dwyane Wade 11 40 0.275
Jamal Crawford 11 43 0.256
Rashard Lewis 10 26 0.385
Ricky Davis 10 28 0.357
Antawn Jamison 9 16 0.563
Pau Gasol 9 18 0.500
Steve Francis 9 22 0.409
Tim Duncan 9 23 0.391
Gilbert Arenas 9 28 0.321
Michael Redd 9 30 0.300
Tracy McGrady 9 32 0.281
Kevin Garnett 9 33 0.273
Hedo Turkeyglue 8 16 0.500
Derek Fisher 8 20 0.400
Chris Paul 8 21 0.381
Mike Bibby 8 22 0.364
Rip Hamilton 8 22 0.364
Andre Iguodala 8 22 0.364
Jason Terry 8 26 0.308
Chauncey Billups 6 37 0.162

I cut it off after the top 29 (and then added one to the bottom).  Right up there at the top are the clutchiest clutchers who ever clutched…LeBron, Vince Carter (Vince Carter!), Ray Allen, Kobe, and Melo.  There’s Iggy, tied with several others with 8 FGM.  But let’s mix it up a little bit.  Now, the league average for FG% in these situations is .298, so the league overall doesn’t make a lot of these shots.  Let’s sort this crew by percentage:

Player Fgm Fga Fg%
Antawn Jamison 9 16 0.563
Hedo Turkeyglue 8 16 0.500
Pau Gasol 9 18 0.500
Carmelo Anthony 13 27 0.481
Steve Francis 9 22 0.409
Derek Fisher 8 20 0.400
Allen Iverson 13 33 0.394
Tim Duncan 9 23 0.391
Rashard Lewis 10 26 0.385
Ray Allen 15 39 0.385
Chris Paul 8 21 0.381
Andre Iguodala 8 22 0.364
Mike Bibby 8 22 0.364
Rip Hamilton 8 22 0.364
Ricky Davis 10 28 0.357
Ben Gordon 12 34 0.353
Paul Pierce 11 32 0.344
LeBron James 17 50 0.340
Dirk Nowitzki 12 37 0.324
Gilbert Arenas 9 28 0.321
Vince Carter 16 51 0.314
Jason Terry 8 26 0.308
Michael Redd 9 30 0.300
Tracy McGrady 9 32 0.281
Dwyane Wade 11 40 0.275
Kevin Garnett 9 33 0.273
Joe Johnson 12 45 0.267
Jamal Crawford 11 43 0.256
Kobe Bryant 14 56 0.250
Chauncey Billups 6 37 0.162

Huh.  Couple surprises there, right?  First of all, not only does that bump some dudes way up to the top, it sends some crashing and burning.  Again, with the league percentage being at .298, Iggy is above average.  Look at the high-profile sons-of-guns who are below average: McGrady, Wade, KG, Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford (der), KOBE, and a guy who’s called Mr. Big Shot (Sorry, Chauncey.  I love ya, but wow).  Kobe makes only one of every four game-winners.  So clutch (and as they point out on the site, he has a 56:1 FGA-Assist ratio in these situations.  Ugh).  So what do you know?  Reality wins again.

In case you’d like to see Iggy in action, well, I’ve got that too.  Both of these came after the conclusion of the above study.

And one from the playoffs:

comments powered by Disqus