Schwartz: STAT must stay

Posted by on June 3rd, 12:44 am

The Pacers' big were no match for Amare. (Ron Hoskins/NBAE Photos)

The Suns will regret it if they miss out on the goggles portion of Amare's career. Remember this goggled masterpiece in Indy? (Ron Hoskins/NBAE Photos)

The Suns need to fit Amare Stoudemire for a muzzle.

But they shouldn’t send him a one-way ticket to New York, Washington, Atlanta, Chicago or any other city that he’s made remarks about in the past few weeks.

I’m as scared as any Suns fan that Amare will devastate the franchise like Antonio McDyess did years earlier (remember that?) by leaving during the summer of 2010 as an unrestricted free agent with the Suns not even getting a Tyrus Thomas in return.

Along with the potential losses of Nash, Shaq and Grant Hill after this season if not before it, the Suns would essentially be starting over with no franchise player and no veteran assets to turn into draft picks and young players like the Sonics-Thunder did if Amare walks.

To put it bluntly, the Suns would be screwed with no marquee free agent likely wanting to take their chances with this mess, and it’s the scenario all Suns fans are dreading most.

On top of this, Amare isn’t exactly the kind of defensive and rebounding big man that championship teams are built around, major concerns exist with his knees and eye going forward, and then there’s that mouth of his.

Amare says stupid stuff all the time, such as the time before the All-Star break when STAT deflected blame from himself by reminding everyone, “I’m not a captain,” essentially throwing Nash, Shaq and Hill under the bus.

Then he reportedly recently said Tim Duncan is “not that hard” to play against, citing his 37 ppg series in a losing effort back in 2005, and he also mouthed off about being better than Chris Bosh. The journalist in me loves his brashness and honesty, but who in their right mind makes those kind of statements?

He’s also bashed Mike D’Antoni and Terry Porter on their way out the door (even though he’s now apparently interested in a reunion with Mike D?), and now he’s flirting with more NBA cities than my ex-girlfriend did guys just to make me jealous.

The thing is, the Suns can’t get jealous. They’ve got to hold their ground and hopefully continue a long-term relationship with Amare well into the future.

It would be premature for the Suns to toss Amare a max contract before seeing how he bounces back from an eye injury that he believes is more serious than his microfracture knee surgery in 2006, and at his season-ending press conference Kerr gave every indication that no max contract would be offered.

That troublesome eye of his is also the No. 1 reason the Suns must not trade Amare this offseason.

I worried before the trade deadline that the Suns would ship Amare off in a 60 cents on the dollar deal.

And that was before he suffered an injury more serious than microfracture.

According to The Arizona Republic, Amare won’t even resume physical activity until around the time of the draft. That’s not promising for those hoping STAT is dealt because the Suns’ best chance at getting a decent deal for Amare hinges on the availability of a high lottery pick in such a package (like Schmitz’s Washington deal).

No team in their right mind will offer up major assets for a player who suffered that damning of an injury without seeing him do an ounce of physical activity.

The Suns would be lucky to get a 40 cents on the dollar deal, and even at this point, if their best legitimate offer involved Tyrus Thomas and the pu pu platter around the deadline, what do you think the Suns will be offered this time around when Amare is two months and the playoffs closer to free agency and coming off a severe injury?

I would wholeheartedly endorse a variation of the Gay-Conley Memphis deal and I’d consider endorsing a deal starting with Washington’s No. 5 pick (although I hate Jamison’s contract), but with Amare being so erratic and likely wanting to test the market on top of his health issues, the value just won’t be there in such a trade.

What about at this year’s trading deadline, you ask? Maybe, but then nobody’s going to pay a king’s ransom for a couple months of a rental.

I’ve been adamant all along about the Suns not trading Amare just to trade Amare, and I just don’t see that right offer coming along.

While I have written about the virtue of potentially trading Nash and Shaq in the past week, the difference with Amare is that you can build around him. This will almost certainly be Shaq’s last season in Phoenix, and it’s doubtful Nash plays more than another three declining years.

But Stoudemire is a 26-year-old who just started the All-Star Game. Say what you want about his deficiencies – and many have – but he’s the type of guy who could develop into one of the top 10 players in the league.

Look at the improvements he’s made in his game already. When he entered the league he was a poor jump shooter, and his handles were so bad in NBA Live 2003 that he coughed the ball up every time he put it on the floor. So he wasn’t that awful in real life, but he’s improved to the point that jump shooting and taking big men off the dribble are some of his biggest strengths.

His rebounding and defense also might not be as bad as you think, according to this TrueHoop statistical analysis.

Plus, as much as people rag on him about not improving as much in those areas as he maybe should have by now, he has re-invented himself as a shooter and dribbler in past offseasons, so there’s still hope that he will improve in other aspects of his game eventually.

Finally, I understand it’s a terribly small sample size and he was barely going up against NBA players, but Amare put up 23 points in 20 minutes on 9-for-12 shooting and then 42 points in 36 minutes on 15-for-20 shooting in his only two games under Alvin Gentry (albeit against the banged-up Clippers).

That’s 75 percent shooting in both games, the second dominant performance coming after aggravating his super serious eye injury in the first quarter.

Needless to say, I can’t wait to see what he could do in this system with a healthy eye.

Amare has had nothing but positive things to say about Gentry, and I think his offensive game next season will be even better than what we’ve seen from STAT in the past.

Of course, there are many things to hate about Amare: He doesn’t always appear to be playing defense and hitting the boards with the most intensity, his former injuries make him a major risk for a huge contract down the road, and he opens his mouth and says way too much dumb stuff.

But when you weigh the pros and the cons you have to consider that his trade value likely doesn’t come close to matching his talent, you have to consider that he is still one of the most dominant offensive big men in basketball (and this franchise in particular certainly knows such players don’t exactly grow on trees), and you have to consider how good he can potentially be in Alvin Gentry’s system next year and for many years to come for the Phoenix Suns.

The Amare question remains the single biggest offseason dilemma facing the Suns, and how it ends up getting handled likely will go a long way toward determining their immediate and long-term future.

When Steve Kerr ends up making that decision he must consider this:

You can build around Amare Stoudemire, but you can’t build around the 40 cents on the dollar deal that might be out there for the Suns to make.

Therefore, while it would be devastating for the Suns to lose Amare for nothing in a year, it would be even more devastating to prematurely run him out of town.

Michael Schwartz founded ValleyoftheSuns in October 2008 and is the owner/editor emeritus of the site. He is currently working toward his MBA in sports business at San Diego State University.

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Tags: Alvin Gentry · Amare Stoudemire · Phoenix Suns Rumors · Steve Kerr · Trades

19 responses so far ↓

  • 1 jay thatch // Jun 3, 2009 at 4:17 am

    He has already stated that he is leaving after next season. Trade him now and get SOMETHING in return rather than wait till next off season and end up holding the bag!!!

  • 2 Artur "Baguete" Mascarenhas // Jun 3, 2009 at 4:50 am

    I disagree with your last paragraph. I’d rather let him go now for 60 cents on the dollar than be dumped by him in a year.

    Anyway, I respect all the points of view pro and against Amare. My main concern, again, is the kinda person he is (his personality, ego, etc).

    Apart from this, talking purely about his abilities, I dont think he’s that good. He must be the second best player on a championship team, not THE best.

    If the Wizard are really considering giving up Butler, I’d take it in a heartbeat. It would be already 85 cents on the dollar.

    Cheers!

  • 3 V // Jun 3, 2009 at 6:35 am

    I stop reading as soon as someone says "Nash and his declining years."

    What exactly is so declining? He had another 50 40 90 season and you can clearly see his playstyle coming back when Gentry took over.

    People think just because Suns aren't in the playoffs, Nash is the one declining. The guy is still consistent, and even deserves an extension. There's clearly been a few stupid moves, and they were moves that disappoint the franchise player and put him around an environment that he's clearly not even synergizing with. That's not his fault.

  • 4 N8lol // Jun 3, 2009 at 6:54 am

    Interesting post. I have been hearing nay-sayers talk about dumping Amare a lot lately and its a nice breath to hear you say otherwise. I am an Amare fan (aside from his talk) and would love to see the guy stick around. His talent is awesome if we could only get his defense down. Right now, Amare is the “big question mark.” Will he get better from eye surgery? Will his basketball skills improve? Can he work with Gentry and Shaq? More importantly. We have seen how MArion has suffered outside of a Nash-based system, will Amare go the same way if we let Nash go? I sincerely hope not. These are questions that, unfortunately, we cannot answer until next season. So keep him. Honestly, we cant really get anything worth building around anyway unless its someone like Bosh or even Butler. But those options are slim. Keep him, then lets see what happens.

  • 5 Artur "Baguete& // Jun 3, 2009 at 7:45 am

    Gotta agree 100% with V about Nash. I'd love to watch Nash retire as a Sun and be our next coach.

    About getting a top-3 pick, I'd love to ship Amare to places like Memphis, Milwalkee or Sacramento.

  • 6 Justin B. // Jun 3, 2009 at 7:45 am

    It's just a fact of biology that Nash will start to decline in his physical ability and it's likely to happen sooner rather than later. I don't mind extending him and having him mentor an up-and-coming PG, but I certainly don't think he should get a raise AND a long-term deal. My main thing is I would like to Suns to realize, finally, that the championship window is shut on these players and start to rebuild. The only thing, to me, that would make me hesistate rebuilding this season is just so I can screw it to OKC, so the unprotected #1 pick we gave them for 2010, so they could gratiously take Kurt Thomas off our books, doesn't end up being Top 3.

  • 7 Hersey // Jun 3, 2009 at 10:39 am

    Amar’e doesn’t make himself easy to root for. I think there are players like this on every team though. My view on Amar’e, Nash and Shaq is any move has to be smart rather than desperate. Steve Kerr really needs to prove himself this year. Players are prideful and highly paid and will say things about their ability and desire for championships that we can’t relate to. When the lights go on, they’ll give their all. It’s up to Kerr to put together a roster than has the versatility to compete against the NBA’s best. At that point style won’t matter and our ‘stars’ will be perform much better.

  • 8 Justin B. // Jun 3, 2009 at 11:35 am

    The only reason to let him just walk away from his contract (I give it a 14% change that he’s with the Suns past the end of this coming season), is if your trade options are so terrible that you basically would just get saddled with bad contracts just to get rid of Amare. In that case, I’d rather just let him walk and then try to use that space to pick up some free agents.

  • 9 Justin B. // Jun 3, 2009 at 11:38 am

    What the Suns desperately need is a top three pick to help re-start the franchise. That’s how Portland and OKC were able to do it so quickly. Unfortunately, it’s not likely happening this year and their pick for next year is gone, thanks to Mr. Sarver. The dilemma to trading Stoudemire (for a 2010 pick) to a likely top-three pick in 2010, is that adding Stoudemire to that team will likely make that team no longer a bottom-rung team, and the pick will end up being out of the top three. Catch 22.

  • 10 Justin B. // Jun 3, 2009 at 11:39 am

    Sorry, that should have been “15% chance” not “14% change” … not sure what my fingers were doing there.

  • 11 Robert // Jun 3, 2009 at 4:11 pm

    Amare's biggest problem is the eye. My dad had the same surgery in Feb, and he is still borderline blind in that eye, and he didn't have a tear in his retina, just a dislocation.

    This eye injury makes him an impossible risk for anyone trading for him. Today he isn't even worth the #5 pick.

  • 12 Michael // Jun 4, 2009 at 10:25 am

    Why trade Amare? Give him the contract that he wants and i bet he would start playing better D and hitting the boards. Don’t trade the guy we can build around we resigned Gentry to play run style and thats where Amare is going to shine. He wont fit in with the wizards or atlanta. Arent the Knicks suppose to try and get Lebron not Amare. Amare justs likes to talk, hey thats how some players are but trading him is stupid who are we going to build around if we trade him. Trade Shaq hes old and should go play with the cavs. I agree keep nash

  • 13 The people have spoken| Valley of the Suns // Jun 5, 2009 at 12:42 am

    [...] In the past week or so, this here Suns blog has spouted the virtues of trading Nash, Shaq and Amare along with a defense for keeping Amare. [...]

  • 14 Suns Rumors: An Amare deal that works| Valley of the Suns // Jun 18, 2009 at 12:40 am

    [...] I’ve made it no secret that I believe the Suns should keep Amare Stoudemire [...]

  • 15 david baker // Jun 18, 2009 at 7:40 am

    if the suns get rid of amare, and nash then our season is going down the toliet. these men are the best and any team would want them. it would be great to see amare and nash play a full season together. in a suns uniform. shaq, i can understand but with a great trade, the suns can be back on top if there is a good enough center to get. amare and nash are key for the suns this offseason. the fans would be glad to see amare and nash in the playoffs, if it can happen

  • 16 Phoenix’s future showing rays of hope| Valley of the Suns // Jun 26, 2009 at 1:08 am

    [...] obviously gone on the record about not wanting such a trade, but this Golden State package involving Andris Biedrins and Stephen Curry is better than anything [...]

  • 17 The first ever ValleyoftheSuns mailbag| Valley of the Suns // Oct 18, 2009 at 4:33 pm

    [...] reasons against re-signing him –- injury concerns, defense/rebounding concerns — but I’d much rather go to war with Sun Tzu as one of my generals than any other player the Suns could replace him [...]

  • 18 Suns 114, Kings 102 -- Road sweep road| Valley of the Suns // Feb 6, 2010 at 3:00 am

    [...] him this trip makes you wish the Suns would lock him up long term, and frankly that has always been the best-case scenario so long as it’s at the right price. The Suns will not be replacing Amare with a player with a [...]

  • 19 Why the Suns must re-sign Amare Stoudemire| Valley of the Suns // Apr 11, 2010 at 12:41 pm

    [...] why the Suns must sign him to an extension. I’ve been of the opinion for months that the Suns should not overreact either way, meaning I would be fine with a trade that fetched [...]

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